Bitcoin since falling below the MA200 in November last year, has entered a bearish downtrend, and is currently testing the MA200 for the first time at a price of 82,036.

According to historical bull and bear market patterns: in a bear market, the MA200 rarely breaks through on the first test, often requiring a second or third test before a breakthrough. The probability of an effective breakthrough at 82,036 this time is very low, and the likelihood of a sharp decline is higher, indicating a countdown to a crash.
This round of upward movement, which started at the end of March, has lasted over 40 days without significant corrections. The upward slope has continued to accelerate, representing the final frenzy at the end of the trend. Retail investors' chasing high emotions are rising, but this is not a true sign of strength, only an extreme trap to lure more buyers.