Trump TACO again: from large-scale strikes to the end of the war in less than 24 hours @realDonaldTrump

Yesterday: "We will launch the largest strike in history against Iran"
Today: "The US-Iran war is over, handshake happily"
There was just one sleep in between
What did traders do last night:
- Buy gold ✅
- Buy crude oil ✅
- Buy defense stocks ✅
- Last look at the account before sleeping, feeling confident ✅
What traders saw this morning:
- Gold dropped
- Crude oil down 4.6%
- Nasdaq +2.5%
- Account: 💀
This script has actually become very mature, industry calls it "TACO":
Trump Always Chickens Out
The operation process is as standardized as McDonald's:
Step 1: Tweet a threat, tone must be the biggest/unprecedented/never soft
Step 2: Market erupts, gold and oil soar
Step 3: Sign an MoU, announce ~ I won ~
Step 4: Next topic
The whole process closes within 24 hours, faster than overnight settlement
The only problem is the Iranian Foreign Ministry hasn't received the script yet
Official response: "No final conclusion reached"
So the current situation is:
- Trump says: the war is over
- Market says: believe it, oil down 4%
- Iran says: ...... let's talk again
The mine in the Strait of Hormuz: silent
Is the market's reaction today correct?
Brent drops below $100, Nasdaq +2.5%, semiconductors +8%, this is the standard pricing for the elimination of geopolitical risk
But the agreement hasn't been finalized yet, the Iranian Foreign Ministry still says no conclusion
Using trading language, the market has already priced in a 100% probability of an outcome with 20% uncertainty
This is either a clever early move or the setup for the next TACO
Historical experience tells us:
Those who follow TACO trades will either get chicken or become chicken
DYOR not investment advice
#特朗普 # US-Iran situation