JPMorgan: Se espera que el rendimiento de los bonos del gobierno japonés a 10 años disminuya antes de fin de año

Golden Finance report, May 18th, said that Morgan Stanley interest rate strategists stated in a report that as market focus shifts from inflation to economic growth, the middle segment of the Japanese government bond yield curve is expected to outperform other maturities.
They forecast that the 10-year Japanese government bond yield will fall to 2.1% by Q4 2026; data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows that this yield is currently 2.74%.
The strategists believe that due to a lack of domestic investor demand, the long end of the yield curve will still lag behind.
They stated that the implied path of Bank of Japan policy in current market pricing is more hawkish than Morgan Stanley’s subjective probability-weighted policy path and survey-based forecasts, indicating a significant inflation risk premium in the market.
“We expect this premium to dissipate by Q4 2026, bringing the 10-year Japanese bond yield down to 2.10%. Subsequently, as oil prices stabilize and the Bank of Japan resumes rate hikes, this yield will gradually rise, reaching 2.30% by Q4 2027.”