Institución: Precaución ante la posible subida conjunta de las tasas de interés a largo plazo en los mercados desarrollados

Golden Finance report, on May 18th, CITIC Securities research report stated that on May 15th, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury broke through 4.5%, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5.0%, two key psychological thresholds were breached; at the same time, long-term interest rates in major developed markets such as the UK, Japan, and Germany moved upward in tandem, and global risk assets generally came under pressure. We believe that the recent rise in interest rates is driven by the U.S. comprehensive increase in inflation data, the muscle memory of the “Wash Shock”, the highlighted pressure of U.S. debt supply, political turmoil in the UK, and the rise in Japanese bond yields triggering concerns about capital outflows. As a global asset pricing anchor, the significant upward movement of long-term U.S. Treasury yields is expected to lead to a stronger dollar, devaluation of growth stocks, pressure on precious metals and long-duration credit assets, and liquidity shocks to emerging markets. We believe that the market has previously ignored oil prices and inflation risks, but in an environment where global crude oil inventories are continuously being depleted, the combination of high oil prices, inflation, and interest rates may persist. The subsequent core focus will be on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and policy signals after Wash’s appointment. (Jin10)