Institución: El conflicto en Oriente Medio dominará la trayectoria de las tasas de interés en EE. UU. La preferencia por el riesgo no apunta a una bajada de tasas

Golden Finance reports that on April 30th, Max Stainton, senior global macro strategist at Fidelity International, stated in a report that the outlook for U.S. interest rates for the remainder of the year will increasingly depend on the duration of the Middle East conflict. Fidelity’s baseline scenario remains slightly dovish compared to market pricing, expecting the upcoming Federal Reserve Chair Waller and the committee to generally favor easing the damage caused by energy shocks to economic growth. However, as the risk of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for an extended period increases, the risk of energy price shocks spreading to broader inflationary pressures and affecting the overall economy is now clearly visible. “We still expect a rate cut this year, but the risk is clearly skewed towards no action for the entire year.” (Jin10)