#周末行情分析 Crypto Market Analysis Today
I. What exactly is happening in the market right now?
As of now, the price is hovering around $64,800, up about 0.75% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) is performing slightly weaker, struggling above $1,913 and gaining 0.42%. As for altcoins such as SOL and DOGE, they are mixed, with SOL up just over 1%, while XRP is down more than 3%.
Looking at these figures, does it seem like nothing much is happening? But beneath the surface, undercurrents are running strong.
The U.S. July nonfarm payrolls data released last night turned negative and came in far below expectations, causing the market to fully price in a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. In theory, this should be hugely bullish, but Bitcoin did not surge aggressively. Instead, it has been “pretending to sleep” between $64k and $65k.
Why? Because the market currently lacks clear “incremental demand.” Although U.S. tech stocks, especially AI and semiconductor stocks, rose along with the market last night, funds were chasing giants such as Nvidia, leaving little spare money to flow into crypto. Moreover, although U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, they remain high. With banks and Treasuries offering easy returns, who would still be willing to take on high risks and fight it out in crypto?
II. Why is crypto not rising despite continuous bullish news?
“There are expectations of rate cuts, U.S. stocks are up, so why isn’t Bitcoin following?”
Here is how to look at it. The current market is seeing “macro tailwinds” clash with “micro selling pressure.” On the one hand, the nonfarm payrolls data did give the market confidence, and geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have also eased somewhat, reducing potential global inflation risks; on the other hand, internal pressure in crypto is also significant.
First, stablecoin liquidity is contracting. Data shows that the supplies of USDT and USDC are both declining, falling to their lowest levels since 2025 began. This indicates that there is less money in the market, with everyone waiting on the sidelines.
Second, major Bitcoin holders such as Strategy have been reducing their holdings for three consecutive months, delivering a significant blow to market sentiment.
In addition, the recent hacking incident involving the Coldcard hardware wallet, although the losses were not substantial relative to the broader market, has seriously undermined everyone’s sense of security. As a result, crypto is currently more like a “range-bound market,” with some short-term rebound strength, but both upside and downside constrained.
III. What should you do in the “volatile market” over the weekend?
Here is the key point! The nonfarm payrolls data has already been released, but the market has not entered a one-way trend. Instead, it has moved into an even more frustrating period of consolidation. As ordinary retail investors, we absolutely must not “bet” on the direction—that is something only immortals can do. What we need to do is prepare appropriate strategies.
1. If you are currently holding no position or only a small position:
Now is definitely not the time to heavily buy the dip. Weekend liquidity is usually poor, making it easy for the market to produce “wicks in both directions” designed specifically to trigger stop-losses.
Strategy: Keep your hands off the keyboard, and watch more while trading less. Wait until the market establishes a clear direction before entering. If Bitcoin can firmly hold above $65,700, consider cautiously going long; if it breaks below the $62,500 support level, do not rush to catch a falling knife—wait for it to stabilize first.
2. If you hold spot and are investing for the long term:
Then it is even simpler: just “lie flat.”
Strategy: As long as your position is not too large and you are not using leverage, do not let this kind of intraday volatility scare you. Viewed over a long-term horizon, the current consolidation is just a small ripple. Instead of anxiously watching the market every day, close the app—go to work and spend time with your family.
3. If you are trading futures with a relatively large position:
Reduce your position immediately!
Strategy: Volatility is extremely high right now, and high leverage at times like this is simply “asking to get liquidated.” It is recommended that you reduce your position to a level that allows you to sleep comfortably, and make sure to set a stop-loss. Do not plan on holding through the pain; once the market begins moving in one direction, it will not give you a chance to react.
The above content is for discussion and reference only and does not constitute investment advice in any form!$BTC
I. What exactly is happening in the market right now?
As of now, the price is hovering around $64,800, up about 0.75% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) is performing slightly weaker, struggling above $1,913 and gaining 0.42%. As for altcoins such as SOL and DOGE, they are mixed, with SOL up just over 1%, while XRP is down more than 3%.
Looking at these figures, does it seem like nothing much is happening? But beneath the surface, undercurrents are running strong.
The U.S. July nonfarm payrolls data released last night turned negative and came in far below expectations, causing the market to fully price in a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. In theory, this should be hugely bullish, but Bitcoin did not surge aggressively. Instead, it has been “pretending to sleep” between $64k and $65k.
Why? Because the market currently lacks clear “incremental demand.” Although U.S. tech stocks, especially AI and semiconductor stocks, rose along with the market last night, funds were chasing giants such as Nvidia, leaving little spare money to flow into crypto. Moreover, although U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, they remain high. With banks and Treasuries offering easy returns, who would still be willing to take on high risks and fight it out in crypto?
II. Why is crypto not rising despite continuous bullish news?
“There are expectations of rate cuts, U.S. stocks are up, so why isn’t Bitcoin following?”
Here is how to look at it. The current market is seeing “macro tailwinds” clash with “micro selling pressure.” On the one hand, the nonfarm payrolls data did give the market confidence, and geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have also eased somewhat, reducing potential global inflation risks; on the other hand, internal pressure in crypto is also significant.
First, stablecoin liquidity is contracting. Data shows that the supplies of USDT and USDC are both declining, falling to their lowest levels since 2025 began. This indicates that there is less money in the market, with everyone waiting on the sidelines.
Second, major Bitcoin holders such as Strategy have been reducing their holdings for three consecutive months, delivering a significant blow to market sentiment.
In addition, the recent hacking incident involving the Coldcard hardware wallet, although the losses were not substantial relative to the broader market, has seriously undermined everyone’s sense of security. As a result, crypto is currently more like a “range-bound market,” with some short-term rebound strength, but both upside and downside constrained.
III. What should you do in the “volatile market” over the weekend?
Here is the key point! The nonfarm payrolls data has already been released, but the market has not entered a one-way trend. Instead, it has moved into an even more frustrating period of consolidation. As ordinary retail investors, we absolutely must not “bet” on the direction—that is something only immortals can do. What we need to do is prepare appropriate strategies.
1. If you are currently holding no position or only a small position:
Now is definitely not the time to heavily buy the dip. Weekend liquidity is usually poor, making it easy for the market to produce “wicks in both directions” designed specifically to trigger stop-losses.
Strategy: Keep your hands off the keyboard, and watch more while trading less. Wait until the market establishes a clear direction before entering. If Bitcoin can firmly hold above $65,700, consider cautiously going long; if it breaks below the $62,500 support level, do not rush to catch a falling knife—wait for it to stabilize first.
2. If you hold spot and are investing for the long term:
Then it is even simpler: just “lie flat.”
Strategy: As long as your position is not too large and you are not using leverage, do not let this kind of intraday volatility scare you. Viewed over a long-term horizon, the current consolidation is just a small ripple. Instead of anxiously watching the market every day, close the app—go to work and spend time with your family.
3. If you are trading futures with a relatively large position:
Reduce your position immediately!
Strategy: Volatility is extremely high right now, and high leverage at times like this is simply “asking to get liquidated.” It is recommended that you reduce your position to a level that allows you to sleep comfortably, and make sure to set a stop-loss. Do not plan on holding through the pain; once the market begins moving in one direction, it will not give you a chance to react.
The above content is for discussion and reference only and does not constitute investment advice in any form!$BTC
