西班牙封锁Polymarket和Kalshi，因缺失赌博许可证

西班牙刚成为最新一个关闭预测市场的国家。消费者事务部在周二在西班牙官方国家公报上公布了对Polymarket和Kalshi的制裁程序。它将这两个平台归类为未获得许可的赌博运营商。该部同时已命令互联网服务提供商在全国范围内封锁对这两个网站的访问。

封锁将在7到10天内生效，具体时间取决于运营商。制裁程序预计将持续三到四个月，之后才会有最终裁决。Polymarket今日新闻补充，西班牙加入了一个日益增长的国家名单，将预测市场视为赌博。无论它们是基于区块链的还是符合监管的结构。

Why Spain Acted Now

The Ministry’s Directorate General for Gambling Regulation is direct about its reasoning. Prediction markets allow users to bet money on uncertain future outcomes. Under Spanish law, that qualifies as gambling, and gambling operators require an administrative license that neither Polymarket nor Kalshi holds.

Beyond the licensing gap, regulators identified specific consumer protection failures. Licensed gambling operators in Spain must implement age verification systems, access controls for minors, self-exclusion mechanisms for problem gamblers, and ongoing user monitoring. The ministry determined that both platforms lack these safeguards entirely.

The timing adds political dimension. Polymarket recently opened a market on the possible early end of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s term. Kalshi currently offers bets on which national leader will leave office in 2026, with Sánchez listed at 29% probability. Both markets generated attention on Spanish social media. It is attracting regulatory scrutiny that might otherwise have moved more slowly.

A Pattern Forming Across Borders

Spain is not acting in isolation. Brazil blocked both platforms earlier this year as part of a broader crackdown on prediction markets. That was operating without gambling compliance. Indonesia blocked Polymarket last week after bets on President Prabowo’s resignation spread on local social media. The pattern is consistent. The governments classify event-contract betting as gambling, then act when politically sensitive markets emerge on the platforms.

| | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Country | Action | Trigger | | Brazil | Block | Gambling compliance | | Indonesia | Block | Presidential resignation bets | | Spain | Block + Sanctions | Unlicensed operation + political markets |

The global regulatory environment for prediction markets is tightening simultaneously across multiple jurisdictions. Just as the industry reaches multibillion-dollar scale.

The Broader Stakes for Prediction Markets

The Kalshi vs Polymarket competitive dynamic plays out differently across jurisdictions. Kalshi operates under CFTC regulation in the United States, a licensed, compliant framework. Polymarket is blockchain-based and decentralized. In Spain, that distinction is irrelevant. Neither holds a Spanish gambling license, so both face identical treatment

Crypto regulation news from Europe increasingly reflects this pattern. Technical architecture does not override local gambling classification. A decentralized prediction market without local licensing faces the same blocking order as a traditional betting platform. For Spanish users, VPN adoption will almost certainly follow, the same response seen in Indonesia and Brazil. The block restricts access, but it does not eliminate demand from users who understand how to circumvent geographic restrictions.

接下来会怎样

三到四个月的制裁程序将决定最终的处罚。两个平台都可以对程序提出异议，尽管部长已在已知的外国地址尝试直接通知，但已失败。这表明平台本身的合作有限。

对于预测市场行业而言，全球加速的打击引发了一个结构性问题。提供真正预测功能的平台，或者在政治结果预测方面明显比传统民意调查更准确的平台，是否能在将它们视为赌博的监管环境中生存？答案越来越依赖于任何主要司法管辖区是否会制定一个专门的框架，将预测市场与传统投注区分开来。欧洲尚未建立这样的框架。在此之前，封锁将会持续。