The 4H level is currently in a typical stage of bullish exhaustion: the moving average group has confirmed a death cross, the MACD death cross is accompanied by volume expansion in the histogram, and short-term momentum is clearly depleted.
Although KDJ oversold brings a need for technical rebound, historical patterns show that under this death cross + volume expansion background, rebounds are mostly corrective in nature and difficult to achieve trending upside moves.
If this level stabilizes, it could rebound to the 72k resistance zone, but upside momentum is limited.
If there is an effective breakdown below 69k, it will open downside space, with 68k under pressure. By week-end, there is a high probability that no one-sided sharp rally will occur, and the probability of breaking the previous high of 73k in the near term is low.
Unless there is significant incremental capital inflow (continuous large-scale net inflows from ETFs) or the Fed makes an unexpectedly dovish pivot, the current structure does not support breaking the previous high. The probability of range-bound oscillation + bearish bias is dominant.
The 4H level is currently in a typical stage of bullish exhaustion: the moving average group has confirmed a death cross, the MACD death cross is accompanied by volume expansion in the histogram, and short-term momentum is clearly depleted.
Although KDJ oversold brings a need for technical rebound, historical patterns show that under this death cross + volume expansion background, rebounds are mostly corrective in nature and difficult to achieve trending upside moves.
If this level stabilizes, it could rebound to the 72k resistance zone, but upside momentum is limited.
If there is an effective breakdown below 69k, it will open downside space, with 68k under pressure. By week-end, there is a high probability that no one-sided sharp rally will occur, and the probability of breaking the previous high of 73k in the near term is low.
Unless there is significant incremental capital inflow (continuous large-scale net inflows from ETFs) or the Fed makes an unexpectedly dovish pivot, the current structure does not support breaking the previous high. The probability of range-bound oscillation + bearish bias is dominant.