#比特币ETF资金流动 I saw this analysis from CryptoQuant and felt heavy-hearted. Three waves of demand since 2023—spot ETF approval, election cycle rally, treasury company concept—each wave made us think we'd found a new growth engine. But the data tells the story: demand has fallen below the long-term trend since early October, and Q4 US spot ETFs swung from net inflows last year to net outflows of 24,000 BTC.

This inflection point reminds me of late 2021. Back then, the growth rate of 100-1000 BTC addresses also started falling below trend levels—that was the silence before the bear market arrived. Today's picture is eerily similar. Price has broken below the 365-day moving average, a line that has historically marked the divide—the boundary between bull and bear markets.

Weak demand isn't short-term volatility; it's a signal. The incremental demand from the last cycle has been fully absorbed, and no new demand source has stepped in. This means the fundamentals supporting price are fading. The ETF reversal deserves special attention—they were once the flag-bearers of institutional entry, now they're fleeing.

We've lived through too many cycles, each time thinking this one would be different, only to find the pattern holds. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. What we need to do now is recognize this cycle's boundaries, not pin our hopes on the next wave of demand miracles.