Chip stocks rebound, but behind it, the US market is waiting for an “earnings report trial”

This week, the US stock market opened with a contradictory signal: the three major indexes overall closed slightly lower, but the semiconductor sector, which had been hit by continuous selling, led the first rebound. On July 20, the Dow fell by about 0.6%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq was nearly flat at close; during the trading day, chip stocks briefly rebounded sharply, with companies such as Micron, AMD, and Marvell rising, providing support to the technology sector.

But from the perspective of positioning and fund allocation, Wall Street has not turned optimistic again because of this rebound.

According to S3 Partners, the short position in S&P 500 constituent stocks has risen to 3.79% of free float, while the Russell 3000 index reached 6.3%, both setting new highs since the statistics began. At the same time, data from Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage shows that after having continuously reduced holdings of technology hardware and chip stocks, hedge funds have also cut their fund exposure to AI-related stocks to a low level within the year.

This suggests that what the market is truly worried about is no longer whether “AI has a future,” but when AI investment can be converted into profits.

In recent years, technology giants have repeatedly increased spending on data centers, chips, and compute infrastructure. Besides accounting debt, some companies are also bearing capital costs through partnerships, project financing, and long-term leasing. The “implicit debt” mentioned in the image essentially means that capital expenditures have not disappeared; they have simply been split into different financing structures. Relevant data shows that in recent years, the debt levels of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle have grown significantly. The AI race is gradually shifting from a cash-flow competition to a competition for financing capability.

So, at this point, you cannot simply interpret the chip stock rebound as the market restarting.

After the semiconductor sector’s rapid sell-off, a value-repair rally is normal. What will truly determine the direction of the next phase is still the upcoming earnings reports from technology giants.

The market will focus on three questions: whether AI business revenue can cover the constantly expanding capital expenditures, whether cloud computing demand can maintain growth, and whether management continues to raise data center investment. If profit growth fails to keep up with spending growth, high short positions may turn into further pressure for a decline; but if earnings reports prove that AI has started generating real cash flow, crowded shorts could also become fuel for a short squeeze.

Right now, the US stock market is not simply pricing in bullishness or bearishness—it is recalibrating the valuation of AI. The rebound in chip stocks is only the opening act. The real answer will have to wait until technology giants turn in their financials. #夏日创作营 @Gate 广场