A Bloom Energy é uma compra agora?

Bloom Energy (BE 16.74%) emergiu, em pouco mais de um ano, da relativa obscuridade — o tipo de obscuridade aborrecida que a fazia parecer, no máximo, um interveniente dinâmico num nicho de mercado — para disparar e se tornar um fornecedor de topo de energia para centros de dados.

Os primeiros investidores que viram a faísca — a faísca (quase) livre de carbono — na Bloom foram recompensados por essa perceção cerca de 12 vezes mais. Em números que farão com que qualquer pessoa que não seja um acionista de longa data da Bloom se sinta um pouco mais picada: $1,000 investidos no ano passado na Bloom valeriam hoje cerca de $13,310.

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NYSE: BE

Bloom Energy

Today's Change

(-16.74%) $-51.76

Current Price

$257.42

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$88B

Day's Range

$247.94 - $298.62

52wk Range

$21.52 - $351.28

Volume

1.2M

Avg Vol

10.7M

Gross Margin

31.08%

Quem diria que a Bloom se tornaria a ação mais quente do setor energético? Provavelmente aqueles que estavam atentos à tendência que tem sido o feijão mágico para as receitas da Bloom: o lançamento da inteligência artificial (IA), os centros de dados que a servem e as quantidades astronómicas de eletricidade necessárias para a tornar possível.

A questão para os investidores hoje é se o crescimento sem precedentes da Bloom pode continuar e se isso constitui um investimento sensato.

Image source: Bloom Energy.

The hardest question about Bloom

To start, we could talk about Bloom's stunning revenue growth, about 130% year over year last quarter. We could also discuss the monumental deals, all related in some way to AI infrastructure, from $5 billion with Brookfield Asset Management to a value of $2.6 billion with Nebius, to its partnership with Oracle on Project Jupiter. We could also talk about its $20 billion backlog, which includes many of the aforementioned projects.

But I'd like to start with something a little closer to home, and by that I mean my own predictions of Bloom stock.

You see, as I've been writing about Bloom over the last year, I've been stunned, almost to the point of disbelief, at the stock's relentless drive upward. It's no secret that Bloom, on paper, looks vastly overvalued, trading at a price-to-book ratio of about 100 and a forward price-to-earnings of 159. To anyone with any sensitivity to valuation, both of those scream, "bubble territory."

And yet Bloom has crushed any of my expectations of an imminent wipeout. It's not that I've ever doubted the company: Its fuel-cell servers are, right now, one of the only clean energy sources for on-site power generation that can be installed within 90 days. Its marquee list of clients has long been star-studded even before AI became a tailwind -- Walmart and Home Depot were among them. But despite all these wins, to call Bloom stock a buy, when it seemed like more buying than selling had been done, appeared, to this Warren Buffett disciple, more imprudent than good judgment should allow.

So, in recognition of my own underestimation, perhaps the better framing is not a recommendation but a question: Is Bloom's breathtaking valuation right now absurd, or is the opportunity larger than what has been expected?

By Bloom's own predictions, the data center party could just be getting started. The electricity needed to run these server farms could double over the next three years to about 150 gigawatts (GW), according to the company's 2026 Power Report. What's even more striking is that the forecast is already double what experts forecast just two years ago.

So, yes, the opportunity in front of Bloom is enormous and expanding. There's no reason to think this stock can't grow into its current valuation, although any hint that it won't could deprive it of that light of optimism that would make today's price seem low in retrospect.