[Envelope vermelho] Análise aprofundada de 28 de junho: Migração massiva de capital de biliões, a base de IA forja um novo rei! Não chores pelo passado dos módulos óticos, são os chips de potência que lideram o caminho!

Power Semiconductor Price Hike Chain: The Last Undervalued Area of AI Computing Spillover [Taoguba]

Weekend Review of A-Share Market | June 28, 2026

Core Conclusion: 4100 points is not the end, but the starting point for a handover of positions. The trillions of funds in optical modules are seeking a new host, and the power semiconductor price hike chain is the direction with the greatest expectation gap.

I. Capital Exodus: The Crowded Trade in Optical Modules is Collapsing

Friday's trading session has already given the most honest answer. ZTE Juxun recorded a net main capital outflow of 13.46 billion yuan for the week, with Foxconn Industrial Internet seeing a net outflow of 10.386 billion yuan. The "Yi-Zhong-Tian" trio collectively saw over 26.7 billion yuan sold off. This is not a normal correction; it's a collective exit of institutional funds from high-level computing hardware.
Position structures have deteriorated to a critical point. Margin balance has broken through 3 trillion yuan for the first time, with leveraged funds overly concentrated in the tech sector. High-level dual funds have densely tightened purchase limits to 100 yuan. When the most active funds can no longer pour in, collapse becomes inevitable.
But the key question remains: Where will the funds escaping from optical modules go?

II. Consensus on High Semiconductor Demand; Divergence Only on "Where to Go"

The National Bureau of Statistics data is the hardest background. From January to May, profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 18.8% year-on-year. The electronics sector saw a staggering 103.9% surge in profits, contributing 43.1% to the total profit growth of all industrial enterprises above the designated size. Tech growth is not just thematic speculation; it's backed by real profit.
The global semiconductor market is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan this year, with DRAM revenue surging 260% year-on-year in Q1. Micron has signed five-year "take-or-pay" long-term agreements totaling $22 billion with 16 core customers, indicating that memory chips have moved from cyclical fluctuations to an AI-driven super long-cycle boom.
But high prosperity doesn't equal high returns. The market is savvy enough to distinguish "true industry chains" from "concept stocks." Over the weekend, several hot companies issued concentrated clarifications, showing a sharp divergence in the authenticity of PCB, electronic cloth, liquid cooling, and glass substrate concept stocks. After 9 trading days and 6 consecutive limit-ups, Ultrasonic Electronics urgently clarified it has "no M8/M9 copper-clad laminates." Zhongcai Technology's electronic cloth revenue accounts for only 3.27% of total revenue.
This means in the next phase, funds will only embrace companies with genuine price hike notices, orders, and high revenue share in the industry chain.

III. The Biggest Expectation Gap: Power Semiconductor Price Hike Chain

The market has focused all its attention on 100x export growth of optical modules, memory price hikes, and the 30-billion-yuan expansion of advanced packaging. But a more fundamental logic chain has been severely overlooked:
AI server power consumption jumps from hundreds of kilowatts to tens of megawatts, making 800V high-voltage DC power supply the standard for next-generation data centers. The stronger the computing power, the more rigid the demand for power management chips, DrMOS, MOSFETs, IGBTs, SiC, power modules, and analog signal chains.
This isn't a concept; it's a physical constraint. Electricity costs account for over 60% of a data center's TCO. Power devices have a much lower share in the server BOM cost compared to memory, meaning price hikes in power semiconductors won't cannibalize end-user demand—data centers are extremely insensitive to the price of power components.
More critically, price hikes have already been implemented. Nearly 20 global analog and power semiconductor companies have officially announced price adjustments effective July 1, with AI server-specific power management chips rising 15%-25%, and industrial automation and energy storage isolation chips rising 10%-15%. CCTV Finance has reported with solid evidence: The power semiconductor industry is facing its second comprehensive price adjustment this year, with multiple companies stating that "orders for AI-related power supplies are overflowing, and we simply can't keep up with production."
This is the biggest expectation gap: The memory price hike has already transmitted through the industry chain to the end-user, triggering backlash. Optical modules have become so crowded that institutions are fleeing en masse. Advanced packaging is strong, but some targets have already seen huge gains—only power semiconductors remain where the market is still debating whether it's a "cyclical stock," while price hike notices are already in customers' hands, and lead times have extended to over 30 weeks.

IV. Funds Are Validating This Judgment

Friday's fund flows are the most honest voting machine.
While main capital was frantically fleeing from optical modules, PCBs, and communications sectors, semiconductor materials and power device sectors have already received capital inflow. Changdian Technology saw a net margin purchase of 2.653 billion yuan, ranking first in the entire market. Zhaoyi Innovation saw a net margin purchase of 1.521 billion yuan. The semiconductor materials sector saw a net main capital inflow of about 8 billion yuan this week.
This is not an accidental capital drift; it's a systematic rotation from high to low—from high-valuation, high-crowding optical modules to low-valuation semiconductor upstream materials with price hike logic and earnings support.

V. Outline of the New Main Theme: AI Power Infrastructure Chain

Optical modules were hyped for "data transmission bottlenecks," memory for "computing power squeezing capacity," advanced packaging for "chip performance improvement"—while power semiconductors are hyped as the "physical foundation of AI computing power."
Without power infrastructure, all computing power is a castle in the air. The expansion of AI computing power drives hardware bottlenecks from the transmission layer, storage layer, and packaging layer, ultimately spreading to the power layer. This is the last undervalued area for price elasticity spillover.
Three layers of logic stacking:
AI data centers adopting 800V HVDC power supply architecture as standard makes power devices the first beneficiary.
Three trillion-yuan tracks—new energy vehicle electronic control, photovoltaic storage inverters, and charging piles—are simultaneously exploding. Power semiconductor demand is not a single point of drive but a multi-polar resonance.
The window for domestic substitution is open. Overseas leaders raise prices and extend lead times to over 30 weeks, forcing downstream end-users to initiate dual supply chain layouts, accelerating domestic share growth.

VI. Sector Ranking and Operation Strategy

First Choice: Power Semiconductor/Analog Chip Price Hike Chain

Key directions: AI server power management chips, DrMOS, MOSFETs, IGBTs, SiC devices, analog signal chains, domestic substitution.
Logic weight: Triple demand superposition + price hike certainty + sustained supply gap + fund cognitive gap.

Second Choice: Advanced Packaging + Memory

The logic is equally robust, but some targets have already seen large gains. It's suitable to buy after divergence for low entries, not to chase highs.

Third Choice: Optical Modules/CPO

The main logic isn't dead. Huagong Zhengyuan's 800G optical module export growth of over 100x year-on-year is a fact. But short-term crowding is too high. Only suitable for left-side positioning in core targets after deep dips, not for chasing rises.
Directions to avoid: Pure concept PCB, electronic cloth, glass substrates, liquid cooling heat dissipation.
The weekend saw a high density of clarification announcements, making it easy for short-term trends like "opening high—cash out—falling and killing consensus" to occur.

VII. Three-Dimensional Analysis of the Market

Sentiment: Moving from frenzy to divergence; panic has not yet formed. CITIC Securities clearly stated that volatility after 4000 points is normal. This rally has been above 4000 points for over 150 trading days, the longest record in the past bull markets, but the maximum drawdown is only -9.59%, the smallest in history. Friday's sharp drop is a resonance clearing triggered by an external risk appetite shock combined with internal high-level crowding profit-taking, not the end of the bull market.
Fundamentals: The tech backbone is solid. The 103.9% profit growth in the electronics industry is a real performance foundation. The global semiconductor market is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan. Price hikes have spread from storage to the entire chain of power semiconductors, electronic specialty gases, and semiconductor silicon wafers.
Funds: Leverage is high but resilient. Margin balance is 3.01 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.8% of circulating market value, lower than the 2015 peak of 4.72%. There's still room but vigilance is needed. The central bank will add an overnight reverse repo product starting June 29, precisely smoothing cross-month and cross-quarter capital fluctuations. Liquidity is expected to warm up in early July.

One sentence summary:

The trillions of funds in optical modules are seeking a new host. Don't chase concept stocks that have been clarified. Don't touch optical modules with exploding crowding. Don't wait for advanced packaging to finish its rally before buying in. The power semiconductor price hike chain—this is the last valuation undervalued area for AI computing power spilling over into power infrastructure, where the expectation gap is greatest as funds shift from emotional speculation to earnings verification.
Price hike notices have been sent, lead times have been extended, orders are overflowing. While the market is still debating whether it's a "cyclical stock," the industry truth has already given the answer.