Rede de Borracha Natural: Sinais de “arrefecimento” na procura manifestam-se, espaço de recuperação do mercado de borracha limitado.

Supply side: Thailand has entered the seasonal peak production cycle, but persistent showers in the south are disrupting latex tapping, with latex remaining at a high of 86.5 baht per kilogram, and processing costs supporting the floor; El Niño intensity continues to rise, providing longer-term bullish expectations of reduced future output, but short-term increases in new rubber are gradually being released, capping rebound space. Domestically, inventory in the Qingdao bonded zone is slowly declining, while SHFE RU warrants are slightly accumulating, and No.20 rubber warrants continue to decrease, forming a clear pattern of strength and weakness. Demand side remains weak: domestic semi-steel and all-steel tire operating rates have declined month-on-month, end-product inventories are accumulating, downstream buyers are waiting, spot transactions are sluggish, spot quotes are following the futures lower, and spot premiums are narrowing. On the macro front, the US dollar is strengthening, crude oil and chemical products are collectively pulling back, market risk appetite is cooling, weighing on the overall valuation of commodities.

On the capital side, the top 20 net short positions in RU have expanded, with long positions reducing and exiting; short positions in No.20 rubber have slightly decreased, with capital favoring dark-colored rubber. In the short term, rubber prices will maintain range-bound fluctuations, with RU resistance above at 17,900 yuan per ton and support at 17,500 yuan per ton; No.20 rubber resistance at 15,700 yuan per ton, with downside supported by raw material costs. Operations should follow a range-bound approach, continuously tracking raw material outflows from Thailand’s production areas and the recovery pace of domestic rubber tire operations. (Natural Rubber Network)