Putin's staunch ally Lukashenko suddenly announces a long-term absence from the country, handing over power to the Prime Minister, potentially causing instability in Belarus

Presidente Lukashenko, who has been in control of Belarus for over 30 years and is currently 70 years old.
On June 23rd, he announced a major decision, stating he would embark on an indefinite, aimless long-term overseas official trip, with domestic daily government affairs fully transferred to the newly appointed Prime Minister Turchin after only two months in office.
The timing of this announcement is very delicate, just three days before Zelensky’s ultimatum to Belarus at the border, which was issued a week earlier.
On one side, Ukraine has threatened to dismantle Russian military relay facilities at the border and cut off the Russian-Belarusian refined oil supply chain; on the other side, Russia has firmly stated it will retaliate in coordination against Ukraine’s cross-border actions.
Caught between Russia and Ukraine, Belarus finds itself in a dilemma.
Lukashenko’s departure has instantly triggered global public opinion, raising questions whether it is to avoid risk and trouble, engage in diplomatic mediation, or to preemptively arrange a transfer of national power.
The trigger for the whole incident can be traced back to Zelensky’s deadline issued on June 19th, setting June 26th as the final deadline.
As early as June 15th, Lukashenko was already in a difficult position, and on that day he proactively apologized to Zelensky for previously inflammatory remarks.
He admitted that he had misjudged border information and that his harsh words towards Zelensky were inappropriate, and openly acknowledged Belarus’s military weakness, which is incapable of responding to the conflict.
The Belarus-Ukraine border stretches for 1500 kilometers, and defending the entire line would be extremely costly.
If Belarus intervenes in the conflict, NATO is very likely to deploy troops directly into Ukraine, and the local conflict between Russia and Ukraine could escalate into a full-scale war involving Russia, Belarus, and NATO.
This is a red line that Belarus cannot cross: dismantling facilities would offend Ukraine, but dismantling them would betray Russia.
There are no middle-ground options in the current situation.
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