Bitcoin 64700-65200 rebound is a trap, Ethereum 1770-1800 short target 1650——Deep analysis of the morning strategy on June 18th

At dawn, 66400 trap perfectly closed with a profit of over 1300 points, currently Bitcoin oscillates around the 64000-65000 range, the daily Bollinger Bands continue to converge, with 65500 as the key dividing line between bulls and bears. Combining macro factors such as the Fed’s June rate cut expectations heating up and ETF funds continuing to flow out, the morning rebound trap strategy logic is clear, with targets directly at 63000 and 1650.

一、凌晨崆丹回顾：思路决定出路，跟上的朋友爽爽吃肉

Yesterday at dawn, we decisively positioned at 66400 for the trap, and the subsequent market perfectly formed a downward unidirectional move, with the lowest touch near 63900, comfortably capturing over 1300 points and exiting the position. This is not luck, but a precise grasp of the market structure——it’s not that the market is hard to trade, but whether you can do well in this wave.

Friends who followed, did you enjoy the meat in this wave?

二、当前盘面结构：震荡洗盘信号明确，多头追高意愿不足

日线级别：布林带收敛，65500成多空分水岭

From the daily chart, Bollinger Bands continue to converge, with 65500 forming the intraday key bull-bear dividing line. Only if it stabilizes above can we see room for continued rebound; otherwise, a break below will keep testing the lower support. The daily chart shows a high pullback pattern, with obvious upper shadow lines, indicating bulls’ eagerness to chase high is severely lacking, a typical sign of oscillation and shakeout.

一小时级别：震荡下行，反弹无量

On the hourly chart, Bollinger Bands are slightly opening downward, with a sequence of small bearish candles, rebound volume is weak, indicating bulls’ momentum is weak. Every small rebound is quickly suppressed by bears, market lacks effective buying support, and the bear dominance pattern remains unchanged.

三、宏观面支撑：美联储6月降息预期+ETF资金流出，空头逻辑清晰

1. 美联储6月降息预期升温，但市场已提前定价

Latest data shows the US employment market continues to cool, with the market rapidly raising the probability of a June 2026 rate cut from 5% to 99%. Goldman Sachs previously predicted a 25 basis point cut in June 2026. However, the rate cut expectation has been fully priced in, and actual implementation might trigger profit-taking.

2. ETF资金持续流出，机构信心动摇

Since mid-May, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced continuous outflows, losing a total of 1.55 billion USD, with BlackRock’s IBIT outflow reaching 448 million USD in a single day. The withdrawal of institutional funds directly reflects risk appetite cooling, which aligns with the current rebound weakness.

3. 比特币在67000-75000美元区间持续盘整

Bitcoin remains in a narrow consolidation range of 67,000 to 75,000 USD, ETF inflows are being absorbed by supply, and the market lacks decisive breakout momentum. Until macro sentiment shows a clear shift, this "top-down, bottom-up" pattern is likely to continue.

四、早间操作策略：反弹即崆，目标明确

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Shorting range: 64700-65200

• Target: around 63000

• Stop-loss reference: above 65800

Logic: The daily middle Bollinger Band at 65500 is under pressure, hourly rebound volume is weak, macro factors like ETF outflows and rate cut expectations are fully priced in, so a rebound to 64700-65200 is an ideal trap entry point. If it effectively breaks below 64000, further downside opens, and the 63000 support will be tested.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Shorting range: 1770-1800

• Target: around 1650

• Stop-loss reference: above 1830

Logic: Ethereum’s trend is weaker than Bitcoin, ETH/BTC pair remains under pressure. The 1770-1800 zone is a resistance tested multiple times previously; a rebound here forms a trap, with the target directly at the 1650 psychological level. If Bitcoin breaks below 63000, ETH is likely to follow and test below 1600.

五、风险提示与仓位管理

1. 严格止损： 任何策略都有失效的可能，65800（大饼）和1830（以太）是多空分界的关键位置，一旦站上需果断离场。

2. 仓位控制： 建议单次操作仓位不超过总资金的20%，避免重仓扛单。

3. 关注消息面： 晚间若出现美联储官员讲话或ETF资金流向突变，需及时调整策略。

结语： 市场从不缺机会，缺的是发现机会的眼睛和执行策略的纪律。凌晨66400崆丹已经证明，思路对了，莹粒就是如此简单。早间反弹即崆，跟上的朋友，继续爽爽吃肉！

#我的Gate交易时刻 $BTC