Trump suddenly "backs down"? The US-Iran nuclear deal might be reignited suddenly, and oil bears are completely excited!

The most surreal thing in the global markets these days is not Bitcoin's surge, nor AI continuing to hype, but Trump suddenly starting to "talk peace".
That's right, the man who once shouted "maximum pressure" now openly states: US-Iran negotiations are "progressing smoothly".
Even more absurd is that the US attitude towards "Iran's enriched uranium must be exported" has also softened. Previously, the stance was "you must move out", now it has become "then you first lock it in the drawer".
The capital markets immediately exploded.
Because this means—the nuclear deal might really have a chance.
And what truly excites Wall Street is not Iran, but the Strait of Hormuz.
Nearly 20% of global oil transportation passes through here, and when tensions rise, oil prices immediately soar. Now, if relations ease, the market's first reaction is: crude oil might cool down.
So the first to break their defenses are not diplomats, but crude oil bulls.
Many traders have recently started to have trouble sleeping. Because one of the key reasons supporting oil prices in the past was the Middle East risk premium. Once peace expectations rise, this bubble could be drained.
But the question is: can an agreement really be reached before the end of May?
From a realistic perspective, it's very difficult. Because the real complexity lies in the details, including verification mechanisms, fund thawing, sanctions lifting, and so on.
But the market never waits for the results.
What the market loves to speculate on is "it's about to happen".
So now everyone is betting not on a complete agreement, but on whether there will suddenly be a "phase statement".
As long as both sides hold a press conference together, smile and shake hands, the market can move up and down for three days first.
And why did Trump suddenly change his stance?
The answer is simple: oil prices.
The US is now most afraid of inflation rebound, and high oil prices are the inflation engine. If Trump can make the market believe that "the Middle East situation will ease", oil prices will naturally be easier to cool down.
In plain terms, this is both a diplomatic game and a financial game.
Many people are superficially studying the nuclear deal, but in fact, they are all watching the crude oil K-line.
After all, Wall Street never cares about peace,
only about how much peace is worth.#Polymarket每日热点