Trump suddenly "softening his stance"? Polymarket is already betting like crazy!

Recent the most exciting continuous drama worldwide is not Korean dramas, nor American series.
It is the United States and Iran.
Especially Donald Trump recently said:
"Negotiations are progressing smoothly."
This directly sent market sentiment soaring.
After all, what have US-Iran relations been like over the past years?
Like two exes blocking each other a hundred times.
Arguing every day,
but never truly breaking up.
Now suddenly starting "active communication," even rumors that the US is softening its stance on Iran’s partial uranium enrichment.
The market instantly imagines:
The Strait of Hormuz stabilizes;
oil prices fall;
global risks ease;
the world peace bull market begins.
So the hottest question on Polymarket appears:
"Will a nuclear deal be reached before the end of May?"
Many are already betting heavily on YES.
The reason is simple:
Trump now needs diplomatic achievements.
After all, the pressure of the US election is getting closer.
If a "major diplomatic breakthrough" can be achieved, it will definitely be a plus.
But the problem is:
International politics are never like posting on social media.
A phrase like "relations easing" doesn’t mean a big ending.
The real difficulty lies in the details.
How to regulate enriched uranium?
How to lift sanctions?
Who makes the first concession?
Who bears the responsibility?
Each of these questions could be a three-season TV drama on its own.
So I personally lean more towards:
In the short term, positive signals may continue to be released,
but truly reaching a comprehensive agreement before the end of May is still very difficult.
Because what do both sides resemble now?
Like a stage of testing in a rekindled romance.
Chatting is fine;
dining is fine;
re-registering—let’s see.
And the funniest part of the market is:
As soon as the atmosphere eases,
capital immediately starts celebrating in advance.
Yesterday shouting:
"Middle East war!"
Today it’s already:
"Global assets surge!"
The biggest feature of financial markets is:
They always peak first.#Polymarket每日热点