O " panorama macroeconómico" dos próximos dez anos: os primeiros 5 anos de "inflação contínua", os últimos 5 anos de "superdeflação"?

Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s latest research report delineates a starkly divided decade-long macro outlook: an AI-driven surge in capital expenditure combined with “hot” fiscal policies will maintain inflationary pressures in the near term, while in the early 2030s, the productivity revolution triggered by AI could usher in one of the most profound deflationary cycles in history. This framework is reshaping investors’ fundamental judgments on interest rates, credit, and asset allocation.

According to the Trend Trading Desk, Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Haim Israel’s latest report indicates that the global economy is approaching a technological “singularity”—a nonlinear inflection point where existing economic models and valuation frameworks will become entirely invalid. The core logic is: from 2025 to the early 2030s, massive capital investments in energy, data centres, infrastructure, and other sectors will continue to push inflation higher; whereas around 2031 to 2035, the productivity leap driven by AI will lower costs in energy, healthcare, food, and manufacturing, triggering a potential historic-scale deflation wave.

This assessment’s direct market impact has already become evident. Bank of America Merrill Lynch notes that the current market adjustment is primarily driven by rising real yields rather than a collapse in long-term inflation expectations, implying that duration assets are under pressure while credit spreads remain relatively resilient. Accordingly, the firm recommends investors reduce duration, increase spreads, and favour municipal and investment-grade credit bonds over government bonds within fixed income, while tilting towards floating-rate credit products and equities.

Technological Singularity Approaching, AI Reshaping Cost Curves

The report cites Haim Israel’s framework, stating that over the past decade, humanity has achieved breakthroughs such as DNA editing, black hole observation, and sustained nuclear fusion reactions, using only about 1% of available global data, while computational power has become tens of thousands of times more powerful than during the Apollo era at a significantly lower cost.

The real impact of AI is not in chatbots but in simulation, optimisation, and autonomous systems. The report provides specific data: drug development cycles compressed from 10 years to 30 days, costs reduced from billions to a few million dollars, with success rates approaching 100%; in materials science, millions of new materials can be discovered within weeks. Batteries, agriculture, weather forecasting, and energy systems are undergoing thorough reengineering.

However, this transformation is currently capital-intensive and inflationary. The report estimates global related investment needs exceeding $90 trillion, covering energy, data centres, water resources, copper, lithium, land, bandwidth, and grid infrastructure. Renewable energy and nuclear power (especially small modular reactors, SMRs) are seen as key enablers of AI infrastructure.

“Hot” Fiscal Policies and AI Capital Expenditure Form a Self-Reinforcing Cycle

Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes the current macro backdrop features a “policy hot run” and an AI capital expenditure boom reinforcing each other. The report notes that under the framework of the OBBBA Act and wartime spending, US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2026 is projected at 6.0% year-over-year, above the 10-year average of 5.5% and the 20-year average of 4.4%, matching the 50-year average—including the high inflation periods of the late 1970s and early 1980s.

The key transmission mechanism is the “wealth-reinvestment cycle”: US household wealth increases by about $15 trillion annually, combined with a stock of $184 trillion, continuously flowing into consumption and investments in AI, energy, and infrastructure, expanding supply while maintaining demand. Bank of America Merrill Lynch projects that, based on current trends, household wealth will grow from $184 trillion at the end of 2025 to approximately $214 trillion by the end of 2027.

Against this backdrop, 5-year and 5-year forward inflation swaps are anchored at 2.45%, while the 10-year real yield remains around 2.0%. The report suggests that inflation expectations remain stable partly because markets anticipate the Federal Reserve, under Warsh’s leadership, will continue Powell’s credibility, and that markets have already priced in AI-driven deflation pressures for 2030–2035.

Spreads Peaking, Yields Not Yet Reaching the Top

Last month, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s “Persistent Ceasefire = Bullish” logic was validated in risk assets and credit spreads but not in interest rates. The report notes that high-yield spreads have narrowed before reaching previous highs, suggesting that peak yields on investment-grade bonds may have been established; meanwhile, long-term US Treasury yields have risen to new highs this year, with the 10-year yield breaking through 4.4% resistance to 4.47%, with technical analysis indicating further upside to the 4.55%–4.75% range.

Market expectations for the Fed’s path have also shifted markedly: from a forecast a month ago of about 9 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, to an expectation of roughly 16 basis points of hikes. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch economic team has delayed two rate cut expectations from September–October 2026 to July–September 2027, citing persistently high core inflation and ongoing upward pressure, strong April non-farm payrolls, and hawkish comments from Fed officials.

In this environment, Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintains a cautious stance on duration but remains constructive on credit. Recent recommendations include municipal bonds (core and high-yield), leveraged loans, agency MBS CMO floating-rate products, AAA CLOs, preferred stocks, and short-duration investment-grade/high-yield bonds.

Floating-Rate Credit Outperforms Duration

Based on the above framework, Bank of America Merrill Lynch provides a clear asset allocation direction. In an environment of structurally strengthening nominal economy, the firm considers floating-rate credit products, such as BB-rated CLOs, superior to duration assets, and equities overall better than fixed income. For investors needing to hold duration exposure, long-duration municipal bonds and investment-grade credit bonds are seen as more attractive than government bonds, as the former can generate yields without relying on rate declines.

Regarding credit spreads, Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes the possibility of further narrowing and even hitting record lows in 2026 cannot be ignored. The report notes that the high-yield spread peaked at 335 basis points in 2025, significantly below the 435 basis points in 2024, and the peak occurred earlier, reflecting reduced market risk tolerance ahead of the 2026 midterm elections under the Trump administration.

In agency MBS, the report suggests that current spreads (113 basis points) are still relatively rich compared to the 10-year US Treasury yield, but if a ceasefire persists, MBS spreads could further narrow. High-yield bonds are currently viewed as the most inexpensive sector, with agency MBS OAS narrowing 32% since late 2021, compared to only 6% for high-yield bonds.

Structural Costs That Cannot Be Ignored

The report also highlights that this technological transformation entails profound social risks. About one billion workers will need to reskill in the context of widespread AI adoption, as traditional education and certification systems rapidly depreciate. It also flags mental health risks (loneliness, depression) as a “third-largest economic” social issue.

On the technological front, the accelerated integration of AI and quantum computing could reset cryptosystems, financial architectures, and even technological designs within this decade. Bank of America Merrill Lynch emphasizes that this is not a cyclical tech rotation but a civilizational-level systemic shift, with deep and lasting impacts on valuations, labour, energy, and social stability.

Recently, the Nasdaq 100 index surged over 25% in six weeks, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes this indicates the pace of this transformation may be faster than previously expected.

These insights are from the Trend Trading Desk.

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