Trump's China visit vs. Hawkish Waller becomes Fed Chair

Bitcoin once dropped below $79,000, is there still hope?

Trump's visit to China: 90% chance of signing major deals
Analyzed from macro and practical perspectives

Practical: Trump urgently needs support

CPI too high, oil prices soaring, American people's living costs are being squeezed to the limit

The support rate of the "懂王" (King of Knowledge) has fallen to a worrying level, must rely on economic cooperation to stimulate

Boost the stock market, improve employment, the people will naturally vote for him

If the midterm elections are lost, the Democrats will take Congress, and policies in the next two years will be directly stalled

He cannot afford to lose, nor dare to lose; without Congressional cooperation, many things cannot be pushed forward

Macro: The world is moving towards unity

The essence of war is dividing wealth, but the form of wealth has changed

Past resources: land, grain, gold, oil, people (fight and take)

Now resources: talent, data, AI, chip design (win but not take)

Taking Silicon Valley, engineers flee immediately; taking OpenAI, model weights are backed up in 30 countries

Moreover, the supply chain is deeply integrated, Apple’s large-scale production relies on us, our rare earths are deeply integrated into the US industrial system
How to measure? Actually, the results are evident from his large team

Hawkish Waller as Fed Chair: the impact is temporary

Market reactions in US stocks and Bitcoin show market reverence for him
He aims to save America, not the US stock market or Bitcoin
He has publicly stated multiple times: "not looking at Bitcoin"
Waller’s three labels: rate-hike fanatic, Bitcoin critic, loyal to the dollar
So, in the face of Trump’s super positive China visit, US stocks and Bitcoin also tremble
But ultimately, the market will become rational, not because of one person changing the trend completely

What to do next

From a macro perspective, funds remain sensitive; any misstep will cause a rush to exit

We focus on two points in the May 14 joint statement:

1. Whether there is an export ban on chips to Eastern countries

2. Whether the signing of agricultural products/energy/aircraft meets expectations

I personally think it will far exceed expectations, so continue to hold positions

Exceeding expectations allows profits to run; meeting expectations is safe to take profits; falling short of expectations, run quickly