#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin outlook remains bearish, seize the last opportunity to enter!

The current market conditions are noticeably different from previous bear markets: the decline is sharper and more decisive, and the rebound is also stronger and more resistant to drops, especially clearly reflected on the monthly chart.
In every rebound process, obvious capital outflows can be seen, and genuine buying pressure is not strong, a typical trap for inducing buying.
Bitcoin is still in a high-level oscillation and accumulation phase. As the oscillation time lengthens, the top formation will gradually become apparent, and a significant correction is likely to follow. Tonight’s CPI data further validates this logic.
April CPI expectation is 3.7%, actual release is 3.8%, again exceeding expectations. The previous month’s CPI had already risen sharply, which, although directly related to US-Iran geopolitical conflicts, indicates that continuous inflation increases are not positive.
After the US-Iran conflict, Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused oil supply disruptions, with oil prices soaring from around $55 per barrel before the war to the current $100 per barrel, nearly doubling. Although both sides have ceased fire, negotiations have not been reached, and the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, maintaining high oil prices. The rapid transmission of high oil prices affects transportation, food, manufacturing, and other sectors, directly driving overall US inflation higher, reinforcing expectations of “high inflation + Fed’s difficulty in quickly easing,” which puts clear pressure on risk assets.
Market liquidity also does not support Bitcoin’s continued rise; recent trading volume has been shrinking, and the market lacks genuine incremental buying.
The early May rebound was essentially a short squeeze rather than driven by capital: on one hand, there was a strong consensus of bearishness, accumulating a large number of shorts; on the other hand, the main force manipulated the upward movement to sweep liquidity above, deliberately creating the illusion that $60,000 is the bottom, inducing retail FOMO to chase high and buy in.
Objectively, $60,000 is just the low point of a temporary rebound after peaking at $98,000 in January, not the start of a trend reversal.
Historically, Bitcoin experiences a major fluctuation roughly every four months; this cycle aligns closely: after peaking at $98,000 in mid-January, a correction began at the end of the month, and now, in mid-May, we are in the next important turning window, with a large-scale correction possibly starting at any time.

As for altcoins, perhaps a different perspective can be taken!
When altcoins top out, try to avoid projects with high market control; these coins excel at drawing lines on data: every correction looks like a collapse, inducing short positions, but they often suddenly surge, trapping shorts at high levels. Typical examples include Rave Siren earlier and recently Lab. These projects have extremely low alpha trading volume, almost no genuine selling pressure, but their contract trading volume remains high for a long time. The main force uses low selling pressure to manipulate the market at will, mainly harvesting funding rates, while using candlestick and rate data to induce retail traders to short!
Based on this, for the “monster coin” LAB, you can try a different approach!!! Currently, LAB’s movement is very volatile; both long and short positions are easily stopped out or liquidated by the main force, with excessive fluctuations making it hard to hold. Instead, consider a different strategy: directly buy some spot on Alpha. The current price is around 4.56, and reaching 10 is not a big problem. Holding spot at least makes it easier to double your investment, as the controlling coin’s characteristic is extremely low spot selling pressure. Once the main force starts to push up, it often does so quickly and fiercely. Of course, the risk of monster coins always exists, so it’s recommended to participate with a small position.

The above is for reference only, not investment advice!