A "bomba" da inflação explode esta noite! O IPC dos EUA pode atingir o nível mais alto em quase três anos?

Beijing time tonight at 20:30, investors in the global financial markets may face the “most dangerous” set of U.S. macroeconomic data releases since the U.S.-Iran conflict — the upcoming U.S. April CPI data is expected to show that price increases have reached their highest level in nearly three years. This will pose a severe challenge for investors and Federal Reserve officials alike.

According to median forecasts from media surveys of economists, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April is expected to increase by 3.7% year-on-year, up from the previous 3.3%. This is mainly due to the ongoing impact of the oil crisis on consumption, with the month-on-month CPI also expected to rise sharply by 0.6%.

If the forecast is accurate, this will be the highest overall CPI year-on-year increase since early autumn 2023. Excluding energy and food prices, the so-called core CPI is also expected to rise to 2.7%, reaching a new high since September last year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%.

Below is a summary of industry estimates for the month-on-month CPI increase for April. As shown in the chart, the forecast range from institutions generally rises between 0.4% and 0.8%.

From “de-inflation” to “2022 high fever mode”?

Jordi Visser, head of AI Macro Nexus research at 22V Research, pointed out that this report “may not just confirm another unsettling inflation data.” He believes that the trend over the past two months looks more like a replay of the 2022 inflation surge, rather than the market’s previously steadfast belief in the “de-inflation” narrative.

In fact, the market has previously tended to view the current price surge as a temporary event triggered by the Iran war. Although derivatives contracts used to hedge inflation risks have reached their highest point since October 2025, their performance remains relatively restrained. Futures traders generally expect that Federal Reserve officials will choose to “stand by and watch” before the inflation storm passes.

However, a “overheated” CPI report could completely change expectations. Although U.S. inflation has been slowly approaching the Fed’s 2% target in recent years, the Middle East conflict has undoubtedly changed this situation, with even core prices excluding food and energy beginning to rise again.

Visser pointed out that the continued rise in transportation and warehousing indices indicates that price shocks are spreading from the energy sector. “Oil is not everything, but it is the main cause of the worsening situation. And the Strait of Hormuz is still not open,” he said, “This is not some fleeting inflation scare. When transportation, storage, and replenishment costs all become expensive at the same time, this is what it looks like now.”

From the most straightforward perspective, further increases in CPI are likely driven by soaring energy costs. According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), as of this Monday, the average nationwide gasoline price was $4.52 per gallon, up about 44% from the same period last year.

The impact of rising fuel prices may also extend to travel: according to Kayak data, during the week of April 27, the average domestic airfare was $365, higher than the $346 at the start of the war. International ticket prices increased even more, rising from $805 in early March to about $1,100 in the latest data.

Meanwhile, with diesel prices soaring, rising energy bills could eventually lead to higher food prices in the U.S., although the most obvious impact on grocery prices may take some time to be felt.

“Continuous conflicts in the Middle East keep energy prices high, which will begin to have a more noticeable spillover effect on inflation in other areas,” wrote economists led by Tom Porcelli, Chief Economist at Wells Fargo Securities, in a commentary.

Tonight’s report is also expected to show that the core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7% year-on-year. This will be higher than March’s 2.6%, setting a new high since September last year. Economists generally believe that core prices better reflect the trajectory of inflation than the overall CPI, as food and gasoline prices may fluctuate due to weather and other non-inflationary reasons.

Sticky inflation pressures mainly come from consumer goods constrained by supply chain bottlenecks, such as storage chips, CPUs, and other categories. The upward pressure on computer and peripheral component prices is expected to remain difficult to ease this year.

It is worth noting that the April CPI data also includes a one-time special factor that will further push up the core inflation reading. This factor stems from the adjustment of the rent and owner’s equivalent rent (OER) CPI indices after last autumn’s government shutdown caused data gaps. Barclays stated that this adjustment could temporarily boost core inflation by about 0.1 percentage points, while Goldman Sachs expects a 0.5 percentage point increase in the owner’s equivalent rent component.

Goldman Sachs: Key points to watch in tonight’s CPI report

Goldman Sachs, in its preview report on CPI, pointed out that April’s core CPI is expected to rise by 0.31% (rounded to the market consensus of 0.3%), and increase 2.67% year-on-year (matching the consensus of 2.7%). Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the overall CPI to rise by 0.58% (in line with the consensus of 0.6%), mainly driven by a 0.3% increase in food prices and a 4.6% surge in energy prices, with the latter mainly reflecting retail gasoline price increases since the Iran war outbreak. The overall CPI is expected to rise 3.68% year-on-year (matching the consensus of 3.7%).

Goldman Sachs also listed four key trend points expected in this week’s report:

① Housing. The prices in the housing category are expected to show a sharp, one-time acceleration — owner’s equivalent rent (OER) up 0.50%, rent up 0.44% — reflecting the fading of downward bias caused by data collection gaps during the government shutdown. Due to the six-month rotation sample structure, the sample that should have been surveyed in October will be sampled in April. For this sample, data from April 2026 will essentially reflect two months’ worth of increases, as the prices in April 2026 will be compared to those in April 2025.

② Travel services. Goldman Sachs expects a significant rise in travel service inflation this month, partly reflecting the transmission of oil price increases since the Iran war outbreak. The firm forecasts a 3% increase in airline ticket prices — mainly driven by sharp rises in jet fuel prices — while hotel prices will remain unchanged, reflecting signals from substitute price data.

③ Cars. Goldman Sachs expects mixed trends in car inflation: used car prices are expected to decline by 0.4% based on auction prices, while new car prices are expected to rise by 0.1%, reflecting a slight reduction in new car sales incentives; auto insurance prices are expected to increase by 0.4%, reflecting rising premiums.

④ Health insurance. The April CPI report will include semi-annual updates for health insurance components. This update is expected to cause a continued roughly 1.5% monthly decline in health insurance in the next six periods. Since the PCE index uses different data sources for health insurance, it is less likely to impact PCE inflation.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that other parts of the report are expected to show that tariffs will exert upward pressure on categories most affected (such as leisure and entertainment), raising the core inflation rate by 0.04 percentage points. The firm’s forecast aligns with a 0.26% month-on-month increase in core PCE in April, reflecting the relatively low weight of rent and OER.

Looking ahead, tariffs are expected to continue modestly pushing up monthly inflation in the coming months. Elevated oil prices will keep energy prices high for consumers, further boosting core inflation. Goldman Sachs expects the core CPI month-on-month increase to be around 0.2% in the coming months, but if oil market volatility and related price increases last longer than expected, inflation risks will tilt upward.

How will the most anticipated inflation data affect the markets?

At the April Federal Reserve meeting, three dissenting regional Fed presidents (Harker, Kashkari, and Logan) voted against including any easing bias in the statement, believing that inflation risks are already high enough, and the Fed should keep all options open, including maintaining rates for longer or even raising them, rather than signaling easing.

Some analysts see this as a signal to incoming Chair Kevin Woor, who previously supported rate cuts and tightening of the balance sheet. Another key change in the April statement was the inflation wording, where “inflation remains at relatively high levels” was replaced with “at elevated levels,” attributed to recent global energy price surges, a move seen as hawkish.

From a policy perspective, Jordi Visser of 22V Research believes the Fed is in an “extremely delicate position.” On one hand, high inflation and a robust labor market point to possible rate hikes; on the other, the U.S. fiscal situation (debt issues) is worsening.

He said, “This is no longer a textbook fight between the Fed and inflation, but a game of controlling inflation, debt repayment pressures, and political demands for easing.” He added that Woor’s willingness to cut rates might bring a period of inflationary economic boom before the end of the year. Meanwhile, markets must also guard against another possibility: if Woor cannot implement easing, the Fed may be forced to hike rates.

Bank of America’s U.S. interest rate strategist, Mark Cabana, in a report, pointed out that the last rate hike cycle — which saw inflation surge post-pandemic — caused the S&P 500 to fall 25%, and this scenario could repeat now.

He added that the market is currently underestimating the risk of rate hikes. “Compared to post-pandemic, any actual rate hikes by the Fed now could be much smaller,” Cabana wrote, “In any case, we are concerned that if the Fed hikes rates to cool the economy and slow growth, risk assets could react negatively.”

Below is JPMorgan’s market forecast for different CPI scenarios tonight, focusing on core month-on-month data and S&P 500 daily volatility:

5.0% probability: Core CPI increase above 0.45%; S&P 500 down 1.25% to 2.0%;

25.0% probability: Core CPI increase between 0.40% and 0.45%; S&P 500 down 0.25% to 1.0%;

40.0% probability: Core CPI increase between 0.35% and 0.40%; S&P 500 fluctuation within ±0.50%;

25.0% probability: Core CPI increase between 0.30% and 0.35%; S&P 500 up 0.75% to 1.25%;

5.0% probability: Core CPI increase below 0.30%; S&P 500 up 1.0% to 1.5%;

JPMorgan team noted, “Although the current focus is on the oil price shocks caused by the Strait of Hormuz, given the closer link between core inflation, the dollar trend, and bond yields, we believe markets will pay more attention to core inflation. Moreover, since the Fed has indicated that energy price shocks are temporary, this further intensifies market focus on core inflation.”

JPMorgan also pointed out that overall inflation, with April’s average retail gasoline price possibly rising 11.6% month-on-month, could push the overall CPI increase above 0.5%. Regarding core inflation, recent real-time data on housing and used cars suggest that some segments of core inflation may offset the impact of rising input costs in other parts of the core CPI basket. Looking ahead, as companies begin to pass on costs or add fuel surcharges, monitoring inflation trends will be crucial. In other words, the current rising inflation data may be ignored by markets, but if inflation continues to accelerate into June, we expect bond markets to react negatively, with yields rising.

（Fonte: 财联社）