Bear market bottom has been locked in early? Why October 2026?

1/ Core logic: BTC as a high-risk asset, the bottom of the bear market is not fallen to but endured. It is highly anchored to the Federal Reserve's monetary cycle:
End of rate hikes + high interest rate bottoming = bottoming phase

3-6 months in advance of trading rate cut expectations = confirmation of bottom
Iron law: the ultimate bottom always occurs before the rate cut is implemented

Formed.

2/ Review the complete two bull-bear cycles, find fixed timing patterns
First cycle: 2018–2019
The final phase of the Fed's last rate hike: second half of 2018
Bitcoin's ultimate bear market bottom: December 2018
First rate cut after the Fed: July 2019
The bottom appeared shortly after the rate hike ended, exactly 7 months before the first rate cut

Second cycle: 2022–2023
Super high inflation, aggressive rate hikes
Market preemptively prices inflation peak and rate hike slowdown
Therefore, the bottom appears about half a year in advance, not waiting for the last rate hike
Bitcoin's ultimate bear market bottom: November 2022

3/ Macroeconomic situation in May 2026
Current situation: Rate hikes completely ended, high interest rates hover at high levels.
Expectation: Market consensus is for the first rate cut at the end of 2026 — early 2027.

4/ Derivation of this cycle's ultimate bottom timing
Following the convention of rate cut expectations fermenting 3-6 months in advance:
Rate cut in early 2027 → reverse deduction points to October 2026, which is the resonance window for liquidity, sentiment, and pricing game.

5/ Summary: Don’t worry about the price dropping to tens of thousands, first lock in the time window of October 2026. Time scale > price scale. Patience endures, that is the greatest Alpha.

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