#Gate广场五月交易分享 As the exchange reserves drop to a seven-year low, 270K BTC whales net buying compresses circulating float—Is $80K support or a trap

The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows, accumulating about $2.7B, with a single-day inflow of $629M on May 1st being one of the strongest daily data in 2026. The core significance of this liquidity event is not optimism in sentiment, but structural supply compression: each ETF net inflow is actually authorized participants buying BTC from the spot market and transferring it to the issuer for custody, with the assets immediately exiting tradable circulating supply. Coupled with the exchange reserves dropping to the lowest since December 2017, at 2.21 million BTC, the market’s core contradiction today is not the direction, but whether the price can be sustained by continuous spot trading volume support amid extremely compressed floating supply, or whether this rally has already exhausted the short-term squeezing space.

On the external liquidity side, macro pressures have not dissipated but have marginally eased. US Secretary of State Blinken’s statements on the military situation in the Strait of Hormuz pushed the dollar and oil prices lower, with BTC rebounding to $81,600, indicating that BTC’s current short-term correlation with the dollar index remains significantly negative. However, this correlation is inherently fragile—cryptocurrency markets have a 30-day correlation coefficient of up to 84% with the S&P 500 and 87% with gold, not as de-correlated assets, but as amplifiers of macro sentiment. On the stablecoin front, the total market cap of stablecoins reached a historic peak of $315-316B in Q1 2026, with capital not leaving but remaining defensively within dollar-pegged instruments. This provides ammunition for subsequent rotations, but at this moment, there are no signs of large-scale rebalancing from stablecoins to spot BTC.