SOL at $101—do you dare add to your position?
Look at the surface first: The macro nuclear bomb is counting down, yet SOL has not collapsed.
At the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, the probability of a 25bp rate hike has soared to 80-90%. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, above expectations; PPI was hot, oil prices remained high, and Chair Warsh turned hawkish. BTC fell from higher levels to 77,800-78,400, and the entire market is trembling.
In the face of the rate-hike nuclear bomb, SOL did not kneel; instead, it held above 100.
First: The rate hike is an open secret, but SOL is “quietly accumulating” on-chain.
The number of holders of tokenized stocks on Solana has surpassed 800k, with trading volume hitting a record. Assets such as DraftKings saw rapid growth in daily volume, and the network has already taken the lead in tokenized assets.
The Transaction v1 upgrade raised the maximum transaction size to 4096 bytes, while the second phase of rent relief went live, releasing more SOL. Today’s Washington x Wall Street Solana Summit focuses on regulation and institutional adoption. Prediction market World has launched, while meme coin and DEX trading volumes remain high. ETFs continue to see inflows.
Second: Solana is becoming an “on-chain Nasdaq.”
DeFi TVL is approximately $5.8-9 billion, stablecoin supply is $14-16 billion, and RWA stands at $2.4-4 billion and is growing rapidly. Daily active addresses exceed 2 million, daily DEX trading volume is $1.5-3 billion, and application-layer revenue and fees lead most chains. The staking ratio is approximately 70%, tightening the circulating supply. Institutional holdings are increasing, Firedancer/Alpenglow development is progressing, and the inflation reduction proposal has passed.
Third: The technical triangle is converging toward its endpoint, with 100 as the line in the sand.
The daily chart rebounded from the June-July lows, surged to 110 at the end of August before meeting resistance and pulling back, and is currently consolidating above 100. The 4-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle, with the upper boundary around 103 and the lower boundary at 100. Volatility is narrowing as the market awaits a directional move.
Price is trading above the shorter-period EMAs, while the 200-day moving average is well below the current price, in the 83-93 range. The medium-term structure remains bullish. Holding 100 means bullish consolidation; breaking below it would accelerate the bottoming process. This is the decision zone now.
The bull-bear battle—judge for yourself
On one side (bearish):
90% probability of an FOMC rate hike, tightening liquidity for risk assets
BTC has pulled back from its highs, and SOL, as a high-beta asset, is more sensitive
The daily chart has yet to break above 105, and the triangle’s direction has not been confirmed
On the other side (bullish):
RWA/tokenized stocks are surging, with 800k holders and record trading volume
Resilient ecosystem fundamentals, 70% staking, and increasing institutional holdings
100 has held multiple times; it refuses to fall
Continued ETF inflows and the Summit as a catalyst
Support: 100 (psychological + short-term) → 97.7-98 (structural support; below that, watch 94-95) → 92-83 (longer-term moving-average zone)
Resistance: 102.5-104 (dense trading volume + trendline) → 105-107 → 110 (August high; only a breakout opens the way to 120+)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If a pullback to 100-98 stabilizes on the candlestick chart, cautiously go long with a small position, stop-loss below 97, and targets at 104-107. If a rebound to 104-105 meets resistance or forms a long upper shadow, cautiously short with a small position, stop-loss at 106-107, and targets at 100-97. A high-volume daily close above 105 supports chasing longs; a high-volume break below 97 favors shorts toward 94.
Medium to long term:
The ecosystem’s fundamentals support accumulating spot or using dollar-cost averaging on dips, with a target zone of 120-147 (requiring a confirmed breakout above 110).
A rate hike is not a reason to kill SOL; it is a reason for you to sell at a loss.
SOL at $100 and SOL at $200 are the same Solana.
Do not throw away your chips in macro panic, and do not get off the train before the on-chain breakout.
After the FOMC decision, do you dare add to your position? #每周来晒 #美联储加息会议 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $SOL