HYPE at $56—what are you still waiting for?
Look at the surface first: nobody is playing anymore, and the market is as cold as an ice cellar.
It has already fallen 28% from its June ATH of $77 and has been hovering between $51 and $58 for several weeks. The 24-hour fluctuation is under 3%, and trading volume has shrunk enough to make you nod off. JPMorgan says “competition is intensifying and ETF demand is slowing,” while developers are transferring tokens to exchanges again—dead time, but the bottom may be right under our feet.
First: JPMorgan is bearish, but you may be getting misled.
Traditional financial institutions have issued reports saying Hyperliquid is facing competition and ETF inflows have stalled. Retail investors panic: “Even Wall Street has lost confidence—should we run too?”
But JPMorgan also acknowledged Hyperliquid’s positioning as “on-chain financial infrastructure.” The share of RWA trading continues to rise, and during some periods has even surpassed pure crypto perps.
The same report: institutions see “long-term value,” while retail investors see “run.”
Second: HYPE’s fundamentals are stronger than you can imagine.
It is one of the very few assets in the entire crypto market with real revenue:
Cumulative revenue exceeds $1 billion, with 97% used for buybacks and burns
RWA (real-world asset) trading share is rising rapidly
Products have expanded from pure derivatives to stocks, commodities, and IPO-related products
Institutions such as Grayscale have given it a 15-18x forward earnings valuation, benchmarked against Coinbase
Third: a signal has emerged on the technical chart that must be taken seriously.
The price has been range-bound between $51 and $58 for several weeks. After finding support at the early-August low of $51.2, it rebounded to $57-$58 and is now retesting $56. RSI is neutral to slightly low (40-50), MACD is converging, and trading volume has contracted to an extreme—this is the typical calm before the storm.
The upper boundary of the descending channel is around $58, while the lower boundary is around $52. Either a volume-backed breakout above $58 opens up room toward $60-$65, or a break below $52 sends it back to test $48-$50.
You decide in the battle between bulls and bears
On one side:
Strong support at $51-$52 has held multiple times
Over $1 billion in cumulative revenue plus ongoing buybacks
The RWA narrative is expanding, opening up the sector’s upside
Extremely low trading volume = a major move is imminent
On the other side:
JPMorgan is bearish, suppressing sentiment
The development entity is transferring tokens to exchanges
Today’s NFP data may shock the macro market
$58 has failed three times, with bears having the short-term upper hand
Key levels
Upside resistance: $56.5-$58 → $60-$62 → $65-$70
Downside support: $55 → $53.5-$54 → $51-$52 (the life-or-death line for bulls and bears)
Aggressive short-term strategy:
Try longs on a pullback to $55-$55.5, stop-loss at $54.5, targets at $56.5-$58; or try shorts on a rebound to $56.8-$58, stop-loss at $58.5, targets at $55-$54. Keep positions small, as there are many false breakouts.
Conservative medium-term strategy:
Go long after a volume-backed daily close above $58, with targets at $60-$65 and a stop-loss at $52. If NFP is weak and $55 holds, consider building a medium-term long position. If $52 breaks, watch $48-$50.
Long-term believers:
Dollar-cost average into spot positions in batches between $51 and $55. The bet is on an RWA narrative breakout plus continued buybacks. But do not stubbornly hold perpetual futures positions; exercise caution around the unlock on the 6th of each month.
Position-sizing rule: risk no more than 1-2% of total capital per trade, with leverage capped at 3-5x.
HYPE now looks just like SOL in early 2024—
While it was moving sideways, everyone was cursing it as “garbage,” but after the breakout it doubled directly. #宇树发行价150.80元中一签能赚多少 #非农之夜定涨跌方向 #股票交易分享挑战 $BTC $SOL $HYPE
