In the current market environment, I believe BTC's pressure has not yet been relieved. Let's objectively evaluate three macro indicators first. First, oil prices. Oil prices have already approached around $110, a level that warrants caution. Rising oil prices are not just an issue of energy costs; more importantly, they could reignite market concerns about inflation. If energy prices continue to rise, the Federal Reserve will become more constrained in its monetary policy, and market expectations for rate cuts could also be suppressed. Although rising oil prices do not necessarily mean inflation will spiral out of control, they do increase the uncertainty surrounding the decline in inflation. Second, Treasury yields. US Treasury yields continue to rise, and the market is reassessing interest rates, inflation, and the returns on holding dollar-denominated assets. If yields continue to hit new highs, BTC's valuation will generally face greater pressure. For BTC, this means funds may become more cautious and stay on the sidelines, Third, the US Dollar Index. The continued strengthening of the dollar reflects the increased relative appeal of dollar-denominated assets and stronger market demand for the dollar. When the dollar strengthens while Treasury yields rise simultaneously, it puts additional pressure on BTC. If the market is only under temporary pressure, prices will usually see a recovery with a relatively strong wick rebound after falling. But if the macro environment continues to deteriorate and BTC still lacks sufficient buying support during rebounds, every rebound could face selling pressure. The current BTC price action at least shows that market support is not yet strong enough, and buyers have not temporarily demonstrated sufficiently clear initiative. However, one or two weak rebounds alone are not enough to confirm the subsequent trend. Next, two aspects need to be observed: If macro pressure continues to intensify and BTC remains weak during rebounds, the risk of continued market pressure will increase. Conversely, if the dollar and Treasury yields begin to fall while BTC manages to regain and hold key levels, it would indicate that the market may be gradually digesting the earlier pressure. Finally, my view: In this environment, I don't think anyone should rush to determine where the bottom is, nor assume that the market has stabilized just because of a single rebound. First observe whether funds are genuinely flowing back in, then assess whether the subsequent trend is worth testing with a purchase.

$BTC keeps rising for a long time, falls quickly, is this digital gold??????????????!

Traveled 80 kilometers round trip to attend an in-person crypto meetup, BTC breaks through a key resistance level, monitor subsequent changes in trading volume