What will be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight is the August nonfarm payrolls report. This data is not another trigger for a major market move, but rather preliminary data setting the tone for the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Inflation is the Fed’s main anchor for now; employment would have to deteriorate significantly before it alone changes the rate path. Expected payroll growth: approximately 55k; unemployment rate: 4.1%; year-over-year hourly wage growth: approximately 3.0%. For the Fed, employment is no longer the main anchor—inflation is. Waller said that if inflation cools, he would lean toward holding rates steady in September. Nonfarm payrolls are unlikely to trigger a rate hike or cut on their own; next week’s CPI will be the real deciding factor. The scenarios are simple—if the data is in line with expectations: choppy trading while waiting for CPI. If the data is weaker and the unemployment rate rises to 4.2%: rate-hike pricing retreats, benefiting gold, silver, and BTC in the short term.

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