Tonight at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on October 8, the FOMC meeting minutes $BTC $ETH $ZEC $XAU $SOL Probability of no rate change at the October rate meeting: 79.5%; probability of a 25 bp rate hike: only 20.5% Probability of a 25 bp rate hike in December: 68%; probability of a 50 bp rate hike: 16.5% #GateMoney正式上线 #OneGate见证计划 #GT三季度销毁近200万枚

#每周来晒 #非农就业数据 On the eve of nonfarm payrolls, the market has already “surrendered early”: October rate-hike odds have crashed from 70% to 24% 📉 At 20:30 tonight, September nonfarm payrolls will be this week’s “final showdown” The biggest change this week is not the jobs report itself, but that rate-hike expectations have already “laid down their arms”—a week ago, the market still saw a 70% chance of an October hike. After cooler PCE data and dovish comments from officials, the probability of rates staying unchanged is now 75.6%, while the chance of a hike is down to just 24.4%. So tonight’s payrolls report (expected: +84k, unemployment rate: 4.1%) will most likely be a “confirmation button,” not an “on/off switch”—unless the data is extreme (>120k or <50k), the market is already pricing in action only in December. 1️⃣ Will nonfarm payrolls change rate expectations? — Not the main “December hike” narrative August nonfarm payrolls: +162k, nearly triple expectations—and even that did not make the market firmly price in an October hike PCE has also cooled (core PCE is only 3.0%), while officials have repeatedly said that “the labor market is stabilizing, and there is no need to rush a hike” Tonight’s scenarios: weak (<70k) → October hike completely ruled out, triggering a broad rally; moderate (84k ± 20k) → the market says “okay, that’s fine,” then resumes its previous path after volatility; strong (>120k) → hike expectations recover, and risk assets take a heavy hit 2️⃣ How will crypto/U.S. stocks react in the short term? — Essentially a “bad news fully priced in” rally BTC has already risen 3% today to touch $86,650, and the “Uptober” narrative is heating up—the market is already trading ahead of the view that nonfarm payrolls will not pose a threat The historical pattern is straightforward: weak employment → lower hike odds → BTC rises; strong employment → higher hike odds → BTC falls (BTC jumped on the day July payrolls posted negative growth) U.S. stocks are similar: the storm around 30-year Treasury yields at 5.62% has not fully passed, and weak payrolls = relief for the bond market = room for tech stocks (especially AI hardware) to breathe 3️⃣ The trading opportunities I’m watching: BTC: $85K has already turned from resistance into support—hold above $85K, and $90K is the next stop; as long as payrolls do not come in extremely strong, a pullback to $85-86K is a dip-buying opportunity DOGE: still grinding below the $0.10 wall ($0.094-0.095); weak payrolls tonight + BTC holding above $85K would be its trigger to break through $0.10; as long as $0.092-0.093 holds, keep your long positions GT: Platform tokens have countercyclical characteristics—don’t chase the rally; a pullback to $10.5-11 is an opportunity to add (the $12 watershed logic remains unchanged) U.S. stocks (MU/AMD/SNDK): After Micron’s earnings, watch whether tonight’s payrolls report gives high-valuation AI stocks a “pardon”—weak data = lower rate expectations = the most comfortable window for tech stocks In one sentence: Nonfarm payrolls are a “confirmation button,” not an “on/off switch”—the market has already kicked the October hike out of the script, and as long as tonight’s data does not explode, risk assets can continue higher on the “bad news fully priced in” trade. But the December hike is still hanging over the market, and the storm around 5.6% Treasury yields is not over—trade the rebound, but don’t max out leverage. Which scenario is your position waiting for? Let’s discuss in the comments 👇