NEAR at $3.65—would you still dare to chase it? First, the surface view: it has gone parabolic, but it is already scorching hot in the short term. Over 24 hours, it surged from 3.42 to 3.91 and is now hovering around 3.65, with trading volume exploding to $1.5–1.8 billion. It is up 55% in 7 days, with a market cap of $4.8 billion and a ranking surging to 19–23. The daily price is far above the 20/50/200-day moving averages, RSI is 75–83, and ADX trend strength is off the charts—this is a typical acceleration phase near a top. First: the product has launched, but the price has already run ahead of the positive news Confidential Intents TVL has surpassed $70 million, triggering the NEAR@3.33 milestone snapshot, with 333k locked tokens awaiting distribution. The unlock condition is for the 3-day VWAP to hold above 3.33—the price must hold for the incentives to be realized. This is a game with all the information in plain sight. near.com has confidential perpetuals enabled by default, using the Hyperliquid engine and confidential sharding. Positions, entry prices, and directions are all hidden, with deposits supported from 35+ chains. NEAR Intents’ daily trading volume has surpassed $300 million, with cumulative volume reaching tens of billions, and protocol fees have begun buying back NEAR. Second: the macro backdrop is “fake easing”—don’t be fooled by BTC’s rebound On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25bp, taking a hawkish stance. But BTC rebounded from $76k to $81k. Why? Short squeezes and ETF inflows, not liquidity injections. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is nearing 5%, the dollar is relatively strong, and liquidity is not easing at all. Fear & Greed is at 71, in the greed zone. NEAR’s outperformance in this move is sector beta plus event-driven momentum, not a macro bull market. Third: technically overbought, and a pullback is the real opportunity Daily RSI is 75–83, the 4H stochastic has formed multiple bearish crosses, and the price has pulled back after spiking to 3.91. This is not a trend reversal, but short-term momentum is absolutely weakening. Resistance: 3.78–3.83 → 3.88–3.92 → 4.00–4.11 Support: 3.50–3.53 (whether the pullback holds) → 3.25–3.35 (new floor) → 3.12–3.14 (trendline; a break would signal weakness) The bulls and bears face off—judge for yourself On one side: Confidential Intents has launched, with TVL surpassing $70 million Confidential perpetuals are live, with privacy trading + deposits from 35+ chains, maximizing differentiation Intents’ daily trading volume has reached $300 million, with fees used for buybacks, creating real cash flow Up 55% in 7 days, with an incredibly strong trend On the other side: Daily RSI is 75–83, severely overbought 4H stochastic bearish cross, with short-term momentum weakening Thin weekend liquidity, with a high risk of wicks The macro backdrop is not easing; if BTC falls below $79k, NEAR will crash first OI is rising too quickly, and crowded trades are prone to false breakouts Trading strategy For those already holding long positions: Reduce 30–50% at 3.78–3.90, bringing your cost basis into the safe zone. Raise the stop-loss to below 3.48 (aggressive) or below 3.24 (trend position). For those with no position who want to go long: First buy zone: 3.5–3.53, stop-loss at 3.42, targets at 3.8/4.0. Better buy zone: 3.28–3.35. Wait for declining volume, a long lower wick, and the 4H chart not to break the previous low. Stop-loss at 3.18, targets at 3.80–4.1. For a short-term reversal: Only go lightly short if there is a high-volume break below 3.50 and the 1H chart fails to reclaim it, with a target of 3.35 and a stop-loss at 3.62. Scenario analysis Bullish: Hold 3.50, break above 3.78, target 4.00–4.20. If the 3-day VWAP remains above 3.33, the incentives being realized would be a positive catalyst. Neutral: Range between 3.50–3.78 for 1–3 days to consolidate, then choose a direction. This is the highest-probability scenario. Bearish: A daily close below 3.25, followed by a pullback to 3.12 or even 2.8x. The trend pauses temporarily; wait to act until it reclaims 3.35. Both fundamentals and narrative are bullish, but the price has already priced in too much. 3.65 is not the best level to chase longs; 3.50 and 3.30 offer better risk-reward. If you chase at 3.65 and it pulls back to 3.30, you’ll panic; if you wait at 3.30 and it rises to 4.00, you’ll look like a god. The market always rewards the patient and punishes FOMO gamblers. At 3.65, will you dare to chase or wait for a pullback? #美股AI概念股全线反弹 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 $BTC $ETH $NEAR

Bitcoin’s subsequent two possible paths: 1. (Figure 1) The adjustment from 82283---74887 was a fourth-wave correction. The rise from 74887 is now the fifth wave. Once the fifth-wave rise reaches a certain ratio of the first-wave rise, the entire upward move will end, followed by a correction of the overall rise from 57718, after which another rise of the same higher degree will begin; 2. 57718---82283 was the first overall upward move, while the adjustment from 82283---74887 was a correction of that overall rise. The market has now begun an upward move of the same degree as 57718---82283; (Figure 2) The two paths have one thing in common: both can continue rising, with a target of 100k. The difference is that Path 1 will be more winding. Personally, I expect Path 2. Judging from the indicators, the strength of yesterday’s rally, and the performance of peripheral crypto stocks and altcoins, as long as this momentum and sentiment continue, Path 2 is highly likely; If something unexpected breaks the strength of this rally along the way, Path 1 may unfold; The market does not move according to a preset path. Rather, it was supposed to move this way and does so in the absence of surprises, but an unexpected event could lead to another path. As I’ve said, the process may be winding, but the outlook is bright. Just hold on and lie back. $BTC $ETH

While Bitcoin maximalists position for higher dominance, this Elliott Wave triangle pattern on $BTC .D is signaling a macro breakdown that could pave the way for an extended altcoin expansion. After completing a primary 5-wave motive structure, market dominance is now consolidating inside a corrective triangle wave (b) pattern around 59.23% . The Elliott Wave projection anticipates a final sub-wave completion within the triangle before resolving in an aggressive wave (c) impulse lower. Holding below the triangle invalidation level at 63.42% preserves the corrective consolidation framework. A breakdown and weekly close below confirmation support at 54.54% triggers the wave (c) decline, targeting lower Fibonacci support zones at 50.63% (0.5 Fib), 47.57% (0.618 Fib), and 43.53% (0.786 Fib). Don't ignore shifts in market dominance—watching $BTC.D breakdown confirms when liquidity flows aggressively into alts. #BTC #BTC dominance #Altseason #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis