Many people are now opening short positions or preparing to do so. I hope these people can think carefully: why open short now? What is the logic behind opening short now?
If your answer is: the market is in a bear phase, only short, no long.
Then I agree with you. But it’s like from March 2024 to September 2024, from 73,800 to 52,500, which is just a weekly-level correction within a bull market. From January 2025 to April 2025, from 110,000 to 74,500, also a weekly-level correction within a bull market. If you are still shorting now, you are preparing to withstand a weekly-level rebound, so be mentally prepared for that.
If your answer is: it has risen so much, it must fall.
Then think about it: from 126,000 to now, how much has it fallen? Going below 100,000 is not too much, right? Or from 80,600 to now, how much has it risen? From mid-December’s 84,500 to now, how much has it increased? It doesn’t seem like much, right?
The original choice was to go long at 110,000, to go long at 100,000, and there was no correction at all, right? Now it has fallen to over 80,000, and you say rebound to 90,000 and short. Isn’t that repeating the old mistake?
Is it possible it will fall further to 80,000 or 85,000? Of course it is possible, but what you should do is to position yourself for long at low levels. For example, allocate 1% of your position at 85,000, and 2% at 80,000, right? No matter how deep the fall, January is a correction phase for longs, not a sign to go short just because it’s slightly up. Think about whether this makes sense. To be more straightforward, now that it’s at 90,000, is the probability of falling to 80,000 greater, or rising to 100,000? Clearly, the latter. $BTC