The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.803% today, hitting a new high since November 2023😬The last time this figure appeared, $BTC was hovering around 35000. Now $BTC is at 77000. The position is different, but the pressure is the same. What the market is really worried about now is not whether yields are high, but whether Warsh will actually raise rates on September 16. The probability of a rate hike has already climbed to 65-68%, and if the September 5 nonfarm payrolls data comes in a bit stronger, that figure will surge even higher📈Technically, 79000 is the bulls' defense line today. Hold it, and they can still wait for the nonfarm payrolls data; break below it, and the next target is 76500. Before the data comes out, every position is a bet on a single report—don't fool yourself into saying you're trading. As rate-hike expectations heat up, high interest rates are weighing on non-yielding assets, $BTC and the short term will definitely be painful. But I don't care what officials say; I only care whether he actually dares to raise rates in the end. With 40 trillion in debt sitting there, who can't talk tough?

$BTC $ETH Bitcoin and Ethereum both pulled back somewhat after their short-term surges. Although they are still generally trading above their medium-term moving averages, the earlier bullish MACD structure has not been completely broken. However, short-term momentum has clearly slowed after the consecutive rallies, while trading volume has not continued to expand. Selling pressure is heavy in the overhead resistance area, creating expectations of a short-term pullback for consolidation. Overall, the market remains in a high-level consolidation phase following the rebound. The intraday bias is to look for short opportunities after rallies encounter resistance, with a focus on whether the overhead resistance can be effectively broken. Do not blindly chase the rally! Bitcoin: Short near 78000 Target: 77000-75000 Ethereum: Short near 2415 Target: 2380-2360 The overall strategy is to short into rallies and take profit on pullbacks. If volume later expands and price breaks through the overhead resistance and stabilizes above it, adjust the strategy promptly and follow the trend. #Gate用户突破6000万

$BTC LONG TERM HOLDERS ARE SENDING A CYCLE WARNING The historical Long Term BTC Holders 1 Year+ structure is approaching a critical transition zone. The lower oscillator has rebounded sharply from the deep accumulation and oversold region seen during previous cycle bottoms, but the current reading around 0.06 is still well below the historical 0.12+ overbought zone that has repeatedly appeared near major distribution phases. What makes this chart interesting is the timing rather than the absolute level. Across previous Bitcoin cycles, long term holder behavior tends to move through a recognizable sequence: aggressive accumulation creates an oversold extreme, holder conviction rises during the expansion phase, then the indicator eventually reaches the upper distribution zone as older coins begin returning to the market. The current structure suggests BTC is much further into the cycle than the 2022 accumulation phase, but it has not yet reached the historical long term holder extreme associated with major cycle tops. The upper price structure adds another layer. BTC remains in a high valuation regime while long term holder behavior is no longer at maximum accumulation. That combination historically deserves attention because the market can continue trending higher even while smart money gradually reduces exposure. The key signal is therefore not an immediate top call. If the oscillator continues climbing toward 0.10 to 0.12+, while BTC prints new highs and long term holder supply continues weakening, the probability of entering a mature distribution phase would increase significantly. BTC is getting closer to the zone where holder behavior matters more than price momentum. The next major move in this indicator could determine whether Bitcoin is entering the final acceleration phase or preparing for a broader cycle distribution.