$ETH Current price 2567.98, down 4.79% over 24h, with a trading volume of 1120.5M USDT. MA5=2568.85 has crossed below MA20=2584.19, with the moving averages showing the initial signs of a bearish alignment; RSI=30.8 is close to the oversold zone, while the MACD histogram at +2.895 remains positive, indicating that downside momentum is marginally converging and signs of bullish divergence are emerging; the Bollinger lower band at 2541.05 provides short-term support, while the upper band at 2627.33 acts as resistance; the funding rate is -0.0052%, with shorts paying, while the Fear and Greed Index at 71 remains tilted toward greed, indicating that retail traders have not fully panicked and that rebounds may face selling pressure. Overall assessment: Short-term bullish bias for a rebound, but only for an oversold recovery—do not chase highs. Entry reference: 2545～2560 (the resonance zone between the Bollinger lower band and oversold RSI); take-profit 1 at 2585 (MA20 resistance, with RSI returning to neutral); take-profit 2 at 2620 (near the Bollinger upper band; reduce the position if the MACD histogram weakens); place the stop-loss below 2528 (a decisive break below the Bollinger lower band would damage the structure and invalidate the bullish thesis). Monitor simultaneously: $MOV rose 6.92% against the trend, with RSI 54.7 making it the strongest of the three; $SOL has a relatively weak structure in sync with ETH, but its MACD histogram has already turned negative, making it relatively weaker. (Personal opinion for reference only and not investment advice. Futures trading carries extremely high risk; strictly control your position size.) [Data] Asset: ETHUSDT Direction: Long Entry: 2545-2560 Take-profit 1: 2585 Take-profit 2: 2620 Stop-loss: 2528

After running through both possible paths for this ETH drop, I’m actually less panicked. To the upside: 2800 is the gate. Once it breaks above, there is basically no meaningful resistance on the way to 3800-4200. I give this direction a 65% chance of success; to the downside: 2300 is the nearest hard wall, the weekly moving average around 2144 provides support, and the round-number level at 2000 serves as the floor—three layers of support stacked together. The old script is to trigger a major drop to shake out longs before the pump, so don’t use high leverage. If it drops, you still need bullets left to buy the dip; only then can you hold on—the source of fear is often not having enough bullets. $ETH

I’m seeing people in the group spreading rumors again that USDT is about to collapse. Honestly, this kind of news comes around once a month, and I’m sick of hearing it. But can I really say I’m not worried at all? Not exactly—after all, I’m the kind of clean freak who feels uneasy leaving stablecoins in my main wallet for more than three days without using them. Put simply, position management comes down to one thing: don’t put all your eggs in one basket, and especially don’t pour gasoline over the basket and set it on fire. I’ve seen too many people unable to hold spot positions because they went all-in on one coin—panicking when it dropped 5%, panicking even more when it rose 10%. Either way, they panic. Liquidations in futures? That’s just replacing the gasoline with explosives. My own approach is pretty boring: I only keep enough ETH for gas in my main wallet, and throw everything else into a multisig cold wallet. I also store stablecoins across two chains. Maybe that’s a bit excessive, but honestly, cleaning up approvals feels great—better than making money.