ETH at $2,455—are you chasing it?
Look at the surface first: major players are aggressively accumulating, but divergence has emerged at the highs.
Just 24 days ago, it was hovering around $1,910. In mid-to-late August, it surged in one move to $2,530-$2,565, gaining over 34%. Over the weekend, the price consolidated around $2,455. The daily chart tested $2,565 twice, both times leaving long upper wicks—a classic sign of hitting a “supply wall.” Daily RSI has retreated from the overbought zone at 76, and the MACD histogram has shortened. After such a strong rise, a pause is needed, but the trend has not broken.
First: The ETF has recorded net inflows for 9 consecutive days. This is not volume retail investors can generate on their own.
In mid-to-late August, ETH spot ETFs saw net inflows for approximately 9 consecutive trading days, attracting $700-820 million in a single week—the strongest week in nearly 10 months. BlackRock’s ETHA contributed the absolute majority. On August 28, when BTC ETFs shifted to outflows, ETH ETFs still recorded net inflows of around $100 million.
Second: Supply is tightening, but many people have not noticed.
Look at these three data points yourself:
Staking lockup: Around 34% of the circulating supply is locked in staking contracts, equivalent to 42 million ETH being unable to move.
Exchange balances: They have fallen from around 7.7 million ETH at mid-year to approximately 6.5 million, down 1.2 million in six months—spot selling pressure is steadily declining.
RWA sector: Tokenized RWAs on ETH are worth approximately $17.2 billion, with a 45% market share. BlackRock BUIDL and others still primarily use ETH as their base chain.
Third: The macro environment has run into some trouble, but ETH has not collapsed.
On August 28 at Jackson Hole, new Chairman Warsh took a hawkish stance, emphasizing that PCE remains at 3.7%. The probability of a rate hike in September rose from 35% to 60%. BTC briefly fell below $78k, while ETH pulled back from $2,565.
But look at the chart—ETH retraced less than 5%, falling from $2,565 to $2,450, without giving back the entire 34% rebound.
The same hawkish remarks would have caused a 10% drop in 2025, but now they have caused only a 4% drop. What does it mean for bad news to lose its impact? This is it.
You be the judge of the battle between bulls and bears
On one side:
ETF net inflows for 9 consecutive days, $700-800 million in a single week, the strongest in nearly 10 months
34%+ staked and exchange balances continuing to decline, tightening supply
$17.2 billion in RWAs, with the institutional settlement-layer narrative still intact
The trend structure remains complete after rising from $1,910 to $2,565, with the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA
On the other side:
Daily RSI has retreated from overbought territory, and $2,565 has been rejected twice
Warsh is hawkish, and the probability of a September rate hike has risen to 60%
Weekend trading volume has contracted, with a lack of direction during the Asian session
Still down 44% year on year, 50% below the ATH, with huge pressure from long-term trapped holders
Resistance above: $2,500 → $2,533-$2,565 (double-top zone) → $2,670 → $2,800-$3,000
Support below: $2,420-$2,430 → $2,380-$2,400 → $2,320-$2,250 (trend defense)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to $2,420-$2,400 and enter longs in two tranches, with a stop-loss at $2,350 (on a confirmed break below). First target: $2,500. Second target: $2,530-$2,565. Take half off at $2,565 and let the profits run.
Swing traders:
Only chase longs on the right side after a daily close holds above $2,565 and a subsequent retest holds, targeting $2,670-$2,800.
Long-term believers:
Accumulate in batches within the $2,320-$2,400 range. ETF accumulation + staking lockups + declining exchange balances—this structure does not look like a bear-market continuation. Hold for 1-2 years, targeting a return to $4,000+.
ETH now looks like BTC in 2023—
99% of people thought, “It’s too big to keep rising,” but once the ETF floodgates opened, institutions bought it until supply ran out.
The day $2,565 breaks through, you will realize:
It was never that ETH was incapable—it was that you got off every time the rebound had just begun.
What is your ETH cost basis?
At $2,455, do you dare chase it? #Gate7天净流入全球Top3 #BTC重返81000美元 #Strategy股价突破135美元 $BTC $SOL $ETH
