I got lucky predicting that the crypto bill wouldn’t pass, and I also correctly predicted a Fed rate hike! So the question is: Can short positions still be held? Why hasn’t the market reacted to such strong bearish sentiment? How should we trade the market going forward? Tonight at 21:20! bian will livestream an analysis of the market outlook! #Gate股票永续合约覆盖数量行业第一 #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $BTC $ETH

$ETH is slowly grinding higher around $2,436.90, up 1.21%. Momentum is positive, but not aggressive yet. The setup stays constructive while buyers continue defending the current zone. 📈 Bias: bullish 🎯 Watch: $2,437 area ⚠️ Weak follow-through may lead to consolidation. #WhereToParkStablecoinsWhileWaiting #FedHikes25bpsForFirstTimeIn3Years #GateTrenchesExclusive0GasTrading #16FedOfficialsExpectAnotherHikeThisYear #GateSquareMidAutumnReunion

Is the Worst Already Over, Making It Good News? Why Are Tech Stocks Rising Despite Surging Fed Rate-Hike Expectations? The rate hike has been delivered, yet the market has staged the unusual “rising despite bad news” rally, prompting many to exclaim, “The market has gone crazy.” But there is actually an underlying logic that most people overlook: once the bad news is fully priced in, it becomes genuine good news. $BTC I. The Market’s “Pre-Pricing” Mechanism Just as you would take an umbrella in advance after hearing a storm forecast, the market reacts ahead of time to known bad news. Everyone knew a Fed rate hike was coming, and smart money had already sold in advance. Prices had already fallen once before the rate hike was implemented—this is what is known as “price in” (pre-pricing). The damage from the bad news had already occurred before it was implemented. When the news was officially announced, it was no longer “fresh bad news”; everyone who was going to sell had already sold, naturally giving the market momentum to rebound. #Gate股票永续合约覆盖数量行业第一 II. Historical Confirmation in 1997 When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in 1997, the market had already digested the rate-hike expectations before the FOMC meeting, and declined in advance. After the rate hike was implemented, U.S. Treasury yields soon peaked and fell back, while U.S. stocks recovered their previous losses in about a week, led by tech stocks. This was not just theory, but a market pattern that actually occurred. $ETH III. Conditions for “Bad News Fully Priced In” Many people treat “bad news fully priced in is good news” as a universal rule, while overlooking the fact that it requires three conditions, and not one can be missing: 1. Full pricing: The market has fully absorbed expectations of the bad news, with no additional bad news beyond expectations. For example, if a 25-basis-point rate hike is expected but the Fed raises rates by 50 basis points, the move is more aggressive than anticipated. The prior decline would not have been enough, and prices would still have to fall. 2. No subsequent chain of bad news: If further rate hikes or other negative developments follow, each implementation would represent only “half a boot,” and the market would remain under sustained pressure. 3. Fundamental support: The economic fundamentals are strong enough to withstand the liquidity contraction caused by rate hikes. Only when all three conditions are met can “bad news fully priced in” turn into good news. IV. The Key Is the “Expectation Gap” What the market truly cares about is not whether the news itself is good or bad, but the difference between actual conditions and expectations. If actual conditions are better than expected, even bad news can turn into good news; if actual conditions are worse than expected, even good news can turn into bad news. For example, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September 2026, the market’s estimated probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September reached 87.3%, close to 90%. The rate hike itself was in line with expectations, but the Fed’s hawkish “higher for longer” signal exceeded expectations, causing U.S. stocks to reverse from gains to losses. V. Don’t Treat Old Sayings as Universal Formulas The mechanism behind “bad news fully priced in is good news” is reliable, but it cannot be treated as a universal rule. You need to understand what the market expects, where the gap between reality and expectations is heading, whether all the bad news has truly been priced in, and whether the fundamentals can withstand it. The market is always right; what is wrong is merely our understanding of the market.