Can BTC continue to be chased long after surging above $80k? Jiang Feng leans toward waiting for a rebound before trading shorts
Jiang Feng Trading Strategy Diary, Issue 33
This latest market move has indeed been extremely strong. With the market full of lament, I also suffered heavy losses, spent several days adjusting my mindset, and stopped updating for a few days. Now, setting aside all emotions and looking at this market objectively, I do not deny that the current trend is upward, but the risk-reward ratio for chasing longs is clearly no longer attractive, so I would rather continue waiting for a rebound before cautiously establishing short positions!
BTC rapidly rose from over $60k to above $80k, while ETH also climbed from around $1,900 back above $2,500. Faced with such market conditions, many people’s first reaction is: Can we continue chasing longs?
My answer is: The trend has not been confirmed to have ended, but at the current level, I am unwilling to chase longs.
Not because I think BTC is about to fall, but because the bullish factors behind this rally have already been quickly priced in by the market. The higher the price goes, the worse the short-term risk-reward ratio for continuing to chase longs becomes.
I. Why has this rally been so strong?
This rise is not simply driven by speculative sentiment
First, the U.S. Treasury expanded its long-term U.S. Treasury buyback program, and the market once again began trading on the logic of “pressure on the dollar’s purchasing power and improved liquidity.” On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would raise the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation. After the announcement, the dollar weakened, while assets such as BTC and gold benefited significantly.
Second, ETF funds have begun flowing back in.
For the week ending August 21, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $1.92 billion, while ETH ETFs saw approximately $697 million; on August 24, BTC ETFs continued to see net inflows of approximately $338 million, and ETH ETFs approximately $116 million. This shows that real capital is indeed participating in this rally, rather than it being driven purely by retail sentiment.
Third, improved regulatory expectations plus short covering.
Improved expectations that the U.S. crypto regulatory framework will become clearer have boosted market risk appetite. After prices rapidly broke through key resistance, a large number of shorts were forced to close, further amplifying the rally.
Therefore, the core of this market move can be summarized as: improved macro expectations + ETF fund inflows + regulatory expectations + short covering.
This is also why I will not blindly turn bearish at the current level, but will instead wait for another rebound toward the resistance zone before cautiously trading shorts.
II. But I also will not blindly chase longs now
The most dangerous time in the market is often not when there is no bullish logic, but when everyone begins to know why prices should continue rising. BTC has now broken above $80k, with a very large short-term gain, and market sentiment has clearly heated up. However, several variables that cannot be ignored still exist!
Can ETF funds continue to maintain their current strength? Could the dollar strengthen again? Could long-term U.S. Treasury yields rise again? Can BTC truly hold above $80k?
It is particularly worth noting that the Treasury market itself has not completely eliminated its risks. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield remains at a high level recently, and concerns about inflation, fiscal deficits, and long-term financing costs remain.
Therefore, the current logic is not that “negative factors have already emerged,” but that bullish factors are being rapidly realized while new negative variables are awaiting confirmation. This is why I am unwilling to chase longs around $79,000.
III. My approach: Don’t guess the top; wait for the price to bring the opportunity to a suitable level before considering participation
If BTC continues to rise, I will not take a heavy position to bet on the top just because I am bearish. On the contrary, I would rather see it continue rising. For shorts, the higher the price, the more trading value it offers.
BTC: Focus on around $82,600. BTC is currently around $79,360. From here to $82,600, there is approximately 4% upside remaining.
So my plan is simple: Around $79,000: do not chase shorts or longs. Instead, wait for another rebound to $82,000–$82,600 and observe closely.
If BTC reaches around $82,600 and then shows a failed surge, rising volume without further price gains, a bearish divergence at the top, or falls back below key support, I will consider cautiously establishing short positions around $82,600.
The first target is $78k. If $78,000 is effectively broken and the rebound fails, then look toward: $75k ～$72k ～ $70k
But if BTC breaks above $82,600 with continued heavy volume and stabilizes above it, the short plan will concede defeat

ETH: $2,600 is only the first observation zone; the real focus is $2,680–$2,695
ETH is currently around $2,480. My approach is likewise not to chase shorts now, but to wait for a rebound.
First observation zone: Around $2,600. If ETH surges to around $2,600 and shows a clear failure to move higher, I will consider participating with a small position.
Second observation zone: Around $2,680. If it breaks above $2,600 and continues rising, I will not chase longs out of fear of missing the move, but will continue waiting for a higher level.
Third observation zone: Around $2,695. The $2,680–$2,695 area is currently a resistance zone I consider particularly important.
If ETH really reaches this area and shows a clear failed-surge structure, the risk-reward ratio for shorts will improve further.
My targets are: $2,400 ～ $2,300 ～$2,200
Likewise, if ETH strongly breaks above $2,700 and holds there, I will also concede defeat and exit. To prevent a false breakout, the stop-loss is recommended at 27,50. Recent volatility has been high, so the stop-loss range has been widened considerably. Therefore, remember to trade with a small position. Shorts are also like licking blood from the edge of a knife!

I am not saying that $80k is the top for BTC or that $2,600 is the top for ETH. Rather, bullish momentum still dominates the current market. But trading does not mean you must participate whenever you see prices rising.
If, like me, you did not buy cheap coins at lower levels, do not chase the market at high levels out of fear of missing out. Although this rally has fundamentals, capital, and sentiment behind it, precisely because some of the bullish factors have already been realized and prices are now relatively high, I think this is no longer the right time to blindly chase the rise. Instead, wait for the market to push higher and send prices to better key resistance levels before cautiously taking a short position.
⚠️⚠️⚠️This week’s specific trading strategy is as follows:
My plan is very clear: BTC: Closely observe around $82,600–$84,000, and cautiously open shorts after confirming a failed surge, with targets of 78K ～75K ～72K ～70K. The stop-loss should be placed above $84,600
ETH: First observation around $2,600; closely observe $2,680–$2,695; after confirming a failed surge, open shorts in batches with small positions, targeting $2,400 ～$2,300 ～ $2,200～$2,100. The stop-loss should be placed above $2,750!
⚠️Note: Be sure to set a stop-loss before trading. If you cannot accept a wide stop-loss, reduce your position size. Shorts currently remain like licking blood from the edge of a knife and carry considerable risk. If you insist that the bull market has arrived, please ignore this. If your view is consistent with Jiang Feng’s and you believe there will be a significant retracement, remember to trade with a small position and a stop-loss!
I would rather miss part of a rise than disrupt my trading rhythm by chasing the final leg of the move.
There will never be only one opportunity in the market. What truly matters is that when an opportunity appears, you still have sufficient capital and patience.
The above is solely my personal market analysis and trading approach and does not constitute investment advice. Please manage your position size and risk rationally.
Note that the above entry and exit levels may have some deviation: Bitcoin ±100 points and Ethereum ±5 points! #BTC突破81000美元 #老用户重回瓜分1BTC $BTC $ETH
