As expected, the U.S. Senate’s 49–50 procedural vote failed to allow the CLARITY Act to move forward. The market’s immediate short-term reaction was straightforward: $COIN and other crypto-related assets fell, while $BTC also came under pressure, briefly dropping below $75k. But Ajian still believes there is no need to interpret this as the U.S. turning against Crypto; it simply means that the timing of the next phase of U.S. crypto regulation has become uncertain again. The bill’s blockage is indeed bearish in the short term, but if the CFTC and SEC continue advancing through rules and enforcement boundaries, the actual market may not come to a complete standstill. Moreover, some of the pressure $BTC has faced over the past two days has also come from macro factors such as oil prices and the dollar, and cannot be entirely attributed to industry-specific factors like the bill’s failure to pass. Another easily overlooked point is that the CLARITY Act’s setback does not mean the U.S. has rejected stablecoins; on the contrary, the U.S. has already completed an important step toward establishing a stablecoin regulatory framework. In the foreseeable future, Crypto will become increasingly divided into two distinct tracks: One is trading and speculative assets; the other is dollar payments, settlement, and financial infrastructure. The latter’s connection with traditional finance will be more important than simply trading coins‍#CLARITY法案未获通过 .

This was not actually a final rejection, but rather a failure to secure the 60 votes needed for the Senate to advance the procedure, with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, leaving it blocked at the procedural stage. The main disputes centered on ethics rules, stablecoins, and the banking system. In the short term, this is certainly bearish for the market, with $BTC , $ETH , and some major coins all pulling back. But the matter is not completely over yet. Senator Tillis’s procedural voting maneuver left open the possibility of reconsideration, and there is still room to renegotiate, revise the text, and advance it later. So I’m more inclined to see this as a delay rather than the final outcome. What the crypto industry truly lacks is regulatory certainty. This hurdle has only been temporarily left unresolved. #CLARITY法案未获通过

An explanation of the relationship between the Fed’s FOMC rate decision and gold prices, with the key information summarized below: I. Key time points • 2:00 a.m.: The Fed’s FOMC announces its rate decision • 2:30 a.m.: Fed Chair Warsh holds a press conference II. What is the FOMC? The FOMC is a 12-member interest-rate decision-making group within the Federal Reserve. It holds eight meetings each year to decide the level of U.S. interest rates. III. The logic behind the relationship between Fed rate hikes and gold prices 1. Core principle: Gold does not generate interest, while U.S. Treasuries pay interest. The higher the interest rate, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold, so funds flow toward higher-yielding assets. Therefore, interest rates and gold prices generally move in opposite directions. 2. Expectations for this rate hike: The market broadly expects a 25-basis-point rate hike, taking rates to 3.75%-4%, the first rate hike since 2023. IV. The two key focuses of this decision 1. Dot plot: The 12 officials will each provide their expectations for future interest rates. The key is whether they expect another rate hike later this year. 2. Warsh’s remarks: Pay attention to whether he describes this rate hike as “a precaution against inflation” or says “this is just the beginning.” V. Market impact and trading recommendations • Historical experience: On the day the dot plot is released, the market usually absorbs only 20% of the information, with the rest taking several months to be fully digested. • Assessment for this time: The market has already largely priced in the rate-hike expectations, so the most likely scenario is that “rates are raised as expected, but the rhetoric remains restrained, resulting in the negative news being fully priced in after the decision.” • Exception: If the dot plot shows that further rate hikes are still needed and Warsh hints at additional hikes, this would be a genuine negative surprise that the market is unprepared for, and gold would resume its search for support on the downside. • Trading recommendation: Tonight, focus on three points: whether rates are raised, the dot plot, and Warsh’s remarks. $BTC ‌$ETH ‌$XAUUSD ‌$SNDK ‌