The pattern over the past two days: short first, then go long💵 Looking at the one-hour chart, we went short first in the morning at the 77,800–78,100 resistance zone. The market reached a high of 78,144, hitting the resistance almost exactly, then pulled back to around 77,100, realizing an 800-point move. In the afternoon, we switched to going long in the 77,100–77,600 support zone. The market precisely retested 77,422, held there, and then surged all the way up, reaching a high of 822282. Calculated from the long entry, this provided around 4,800 points of profit. In the evening, we continued to go long at 81,000, and 82,000 was also reached precisely and exceeded. However, my target for the short position was 76,000, which was not reached—the market only fell to 77,100. But I took profit and switched long at 77,100 in time. This switch was crucial: do not be greedy with short positions; exit at support and reverse into a long. That is the correct approach and the key to making some profits, though not major ones, throughout yesterday and from last night into the early morning. The only drawback was that the 76,000 target for the short position was somewhat too aggressive. However, I actually switched long at 77,100; execution must be more flexible than forecasts.$BTC ‌$ETH ‌

On September 1, CME FedWatch showed a 66% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. On September 4, the same tool showed 50.2%. In three days, it fell 16 percentage points. What happened? Fed Governor Waller turned dovish. Waller’s exact words: “If the inflation data released over the next two weeks continues to show cooling, I would lean toward supporting keeping rates unchanged in September.” He even quoted John Lennon: “Give inflation a chance.” Waller added a harsh line: “Even a 25-basis-point hike at a single meeting now wouldn’t bring CPI down to 2%.” Just one week earlier, Fed Chair Warsh was still hawkish at Jackson Hole: “If the inflation trend does not improve, we still have work to do.” In one week, the message went from “a rate hike is necessary” to “give inflation a chance.” The market voted with real money. As soon as Waller spoke, U.S. Treasury yields fell. The dollar weakened. And then? Gold approached a three-month high. Bitcoin broke straight above $82,000. The transmission chain takes just four steps: Waller turns dovish → rate-hike expectations cool → the dollar and Treasury yields both get hit → non-yielding assets surge across the board. But the other side of the story is just as compelling. Zhuoer Jiang sold his entire BTC position at $82,050 and then went short. His reasons were that BTC was nearing the upper end of its range, ETF flows had turned negative, and resistance existed at $83,000-$84,000. On September 2, ETFs reversed to a net inflow of $101 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone taking in $115 million. In the early hours of September 4, BTC climbed above $82,000. Yi Lihua posted on X: “The bull market trend has begun, while the resistance level above remains around $86,000.” BTC rising above $82,000 may appear to be a candlestick breakout. In essence, it is the market voting with real money—betting that the Fed no longer dares to raise rates. But don’t celebrate too soon. Waller left a back door open: “If the August inflation data shows that the improvement was only temporary, I will shift toward supporting a rate hike.” Before the Fed meeting on September 15-16, August CPI data will be released. That data is the real judgment day. Macro liquidity is the “fuel” for this rebound, while ETFs are the “igniter.” But whether the fuel can continue does not depend on how much BTC has risen—it depends on how much next week’s CPI falls. Zhuoer Jiang is waiting to buy back at $70,000 Yi Lihua is waiting for a breakout above $86,000 What about you? #Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 #非农就业报告即将揭晓 $ETH $SOL $BTC

$BTC BTC back above $80k... real recovery or a trap? 🚨 Bitcoin snapped to $81.5K, liquidating $90M in shorts. • Bulls point to Fed news and target $85k–$90k. • Bears call it a trap heading straight for $76k. Is $80k solid ground or rejection? What's your play?