"Jiang Feng’s Trading Diary" Issue 22: The Biggest Enemy in Trading Is Not the Market, but the Impatience in Your Heart! The Biggest Pain Point of Being Both an Analyst and a Trader
After entering the crypto market, many people go through a phase where they initially feel that making money is easy: going long after a rise and buying the dip after a fall. Seeing others post screenshots of their profits, they feel that capturing just one opportunity could change their lives.
But after trading for some time, they discover that the truly difficult part of the market has never been understanding a single candlestick, but being able to maintain their trading discipline while facing volatility.
This is also a feeling that has grown increasingly profound for me as "Jiang Feng’s Trading Strategy Diary" has continued updating through its twenty-second issue: trading is not about who can predict more accurately, but about who can control losses during mistakes and hold on to profits when correct.
Yesterday, BTC continued to oscillate around the 6.2–6.4 range, with bulls and bears continuing to battle within this area. From the chart, the market has not yet formed a very clear one-sided trend.
I have to admit that yesterday’s strategy was mixed with negative emotions. The reason was that in the Ethereum 1890 short position from Issue 20, I only entered a tiny position according to the strategy in the article, but my pending position at Bitcoin 63800 was relatively large. Unfortunately, the price only rose to around 63779 before beginning to retrace to around 62268. My main BTC pending order was 20 points away from entry, which caused me to lose emotional balance. As a result, yesterday’s strategy was overly aggressive, calling for shorts at 63300–64200. The position has been entered, but I am currently holding it through the adverse move!
I am no saint, and I cannot completely control my emotions! In fact, my mindset when trading is also extremely poor, and I am heavily affected by emotions. I have also sold too early, missed out, and gotten carried away with trades. Even when I correctly identify the direction and determine a good entry point, if the price briefly breaks through or unexpectedly surges after entry, hits my stop-loss, and then moves in the expected direction, I can also become emotional and chase the trade—and that kind of chasing completely loses all rationality! Emotions can also easily affect my next judgment!
This is also why I said earlier that the identities of analyst and trader are not suitable for being embodied in the same person. Most analytical strategies tend to favor the direction of the positions one is holding. Missing an entry opportunity, especially when a pending order misses by just a few points, can also easily lead to emotional analysis! In fact, the truly difficult part of trading is not technical analysis itself, predicting the market, or determining entry points. What is truly difficult is that restless, agitated, and uncontrollable heart! Since the position is already stuck, I will continue waiting patiently.
Back to the main point: today’s view remains unchanged; continue maintaining a bias toward selling at higher levels!
Why not choose to chase the rise now, nor blindly chase the fall? Many people are most likely to make two mistakes in a ranging market:
First: Seeing a rise, they fear missing out and chase the move. The result is often buying near short-term resistance. Second: Seeing a fall, they believe the market is about to collapse and emotionally chase shorts. When the market rebounds slightly, they are forced to stop out. In fact, the most dangerous thing in trading is not making the wrong judgment, but placing a bet in advance from a position without an edge.
My trading logic has always been relatively simple: wait for the market to provide a sufficiently high risk-reward ratio. If the price rises to a resistance area and the risk exceeds the potential reward, wait. If the price falls to a support area and the market presents an opportunity, wait. Trading does not require taking action every day. When there is no opportunity, staying flat is also a skill!
Currently, BTC remains in a ranging structure on the daily timeframe.
Key area to watch above: 64400–64800 resistance. If the price rebounds to this area, you can enter an initial short position.
If it breaks strongly above that level, the 65000–66000 area above is also a good zone to add to shorts.
Watch the 63300–62500 support area below. A confirmed breakdown would target the 61300–60500 area.
For ETH, watch the resistance around 1880–1905 above. If the price rebounds to this area, you can enter an initial short position!
If it breaks strongly above that level, the 1935–1953 area above is also a good zone to add to shorts.
Watch the 1830–1800 support area below. A confirmed breakdown would target the 1760–1730 area.
Why do I insist on publicly recording my trades? After trading for so many years, I increasingly feel that the truly difficult part is neither finding an indicator nor finding some so-called “sure-win method.” Because there is no 100% accuracy in the market. What is truly difficult is remaining calm when others are going crazy and remaining objective when others are panicking.
What "Jiang Feng’s Trading Diary" records is not a daily prediction of rises and falls, but rather: why I chose to trade at this level; why I chose to wait at that level; why I sometimes identified the direction correctly but did not enter; and why I sometimes need to admit that my judgment was wrong. In the long run, the money made from trading does not come from one miraculous prediction, but from countless instances of correct execution.
Thank you to everyone who has continued to follow "Jiang Feng’s Trading Strategy Diary." In the future, I will continue publicly recording every market judgment and every trade review. I am not pursuing correct predictions for every day. I am only pursuing being prepared when opportunities that belong to me appear.
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