#OneGate见证计划 Weekly Token Unlock Overview: ENA, HYPE, AERO, OP; Who Is Creating Pressure, and Who Is Just Going Through the Motions?
Token unlocks are nothing new, but when the amount is large enough and the proportion high enough, they can directly become a short-term pricing anchor for the market. This week features four relatively notable unlocks: Ethena (ENA), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Aerodrome (AERO), and Optimism (OP).
Ethena (ENA)
Unlocking on October 5, it belongs to the DeFi sector. Its circulating market cap is approximately $2.4 billion, with this unlock worth $40.58 million, corresponding to 170 million tokens and accounting for 1.7% of the current circulating supply. This is the highest-proportion unlock of the week. 1.7% is not extreme, but in the current environment of cautious market sentiment, it is enough to trigger expectations of short-term selling pressure.
In particular, as the core token of a synthetic dollar protocol, ENA has a relatively high proportion of institutional and early investors in its holder structure. If they choose to cash out after the unlock, its price sensitivity will be significantly higher than that of a purely retail-driven project.
Hyperliquid (HYPE)
Also on October 5. Its circulating market cap is as high as $20.1 billion, with this unlock worth approximately $340 million, involving 3.75 million tokens and accounting for only 0.4% of the circulating supply. The amount looks large, but the proportion is extremely low. For a leading DEX with a market cap already above the $20 billion level, a 0.4% unlock looks more like a normal supply release than a disruptive event.
The market's current pricing logic for HYPE is based more on trading volume, fee revenue, and buyback expectations. A single small-percentage unlock is unlikely to change the medium-term trend.
Aerodrome (AERO)
Unlocking on October 7. Its circulating market cap is $850 million, with an unlock worth $3.53 million, involving 4.1 million tokens and accounting for 0.4%. In terms of both amount and proportion, this falls into the low-impact category.
Its leading position among Base ecosystem DEXs remains intact, with liquidity and trading volume data supporting its fundamentals. This unlock will most likely be quickly absorbed by the market. Optimism (OP)
Unlocking on October 11. Its circulating market cap is $3 billion, with the unlock worth only $590k, involving 4.45 million tokens and accounting for 0.2%. It can almost be ignored. The Layer 2 sector as a whole remains in a phase where narrative and implementation are progressing in parallel, so OP's unlock is expected to have a very limited impact on its price.
The only one that truly warrants caution is ENA
Looking at the four unlocks together, the divergence is very clear: HYPE has the largest amount but the lowest proportion, so its impact is limited. ENA has the highest proportion, and its amount is also substantial, making its short-term pressure the most worth watching. AERO and OP are essentially just going through the motions.
The impact of token unlocks on prices has never been as simple as “unlocking means a drop.”
The key is to look at three variables: whether the unlock proportion is high enough (usually, it only becomes materially worth discussing once it exceeds 1%); who receives the tokens (the team, investors, or the community); and the market's risk appetite at the time. The overall market is currently in a digestion phase following Bitcoin's surge and retreat, and risk assets have become more sensitive to supply shocks.
ENA's 1.7% unlock falls right within this window. If concentrated selling pressure emerges after the unlock, short-term volatility could be amplified; conversely, if buyers absorb the supply strongly, the market may interpret it as “the bearish news has been fully priced in.”
HYPE is completely different. A 0.4% unlock is more like routine operations for it. What truly determines its direction remains trading data, revenue generation, and the pace of buybacks. As long as these fundamentals do not deteriorate significantly, a single small-percentage unlock is unlikely to become a trend reversal point.
How to approach this week's trading pace
For short-term traders, ENA is the only unlock event this week that requires close attention. Watch changes in trading volume before and after the unlock, large transfers, and whether there is any obvious buildup of sell orders. If the price drops rapidly after the unlock but trading volume does not increase, it often means the selling pressure was priced in ahead of time; if the drop is accompanied by increased volume, greater caution is warranted.
For medium- and long-term holders, the impact of the HYPE, AERO, and OP unlocks can all be treated as secondary. What truly determines their direction remains the competitive landscape and protocol revenue in their respective sectors, rather than a one-off release of tokens worth several million to tens of millions of dollars.
A token unlock itself is merely a disturbance on the supply side. It does not create value, nor does it eliminate value out of thin air; it simply puts previously locked tokens onto the market ahead of time. The market will ultimately tell you with real money whether these tokens were absorbed or dumped. The most important thing to watch this week is not “whether there is an unlock,” but “who is buying after the unlock.”
