$BTC This move up to $ETH 87k was mainly driven by shorts being forced to buy back. First, the conclusion: today’s move toward 87k looked more like a fake breakout attempt pushed up by short liquidations, not aggressive buying by new longs. Long exposure is still concentrated in the hands of a few heavily positioned whales—I won’t treat it as a trend unless it holds above 87.4k. **Figure 1** is the 4-hour chart. From mid-September, price climbed from 75k to 87.4k, then got stuck between 82.5k and 87.4k for two weeks. This is the second time this week that 87.4k has rejected price, which is now hovering around 86k. **Figures 2 / 3** are the key. 1) The rise was driven by short liquidations, not added leverage. During those few hours in the morning, Gate alone saw roughly $10 million in short liquidations, while long liquidations were under $300,000. Open interest surged from about $4.23 billion to $4.50 billion at the top, then as price pulled back, some longs were washed out and open interest returned to around $4.29 billion—almost no net leverage was left behind. Funding rates are still fluctuating between -0.0016% and +0.0048%, currently around +0.0045%, showing no squeeze at all; the basis has remained at a discount. 2) Retail and whales moved in opposite directions. During the rally, the overall market account long/short ratio fell from around 1.15 to 0.90, with retail chasing shorts; meanwhile, the large-trader long/short ratio by position size rose from 1.11 to 1.62 before falling back to around 1.36 as they took profit. Even more strikingly, the large-trader ratio by account count was only around 0.57—roughly 37% long and 63% short—but was around 1.35 by position size. In other words, most large-trader accounts were bearish, while a few heavily positioned long accounts pushed the aggregate net long. Positions are concentrated, and once they withdraw, the market can quickly lose support. 3) Compared with the top on 9/21: price was then around 86.6k, Gate open interest was $5.23 billion, and the large-trader position ratio was 1.77. Later, on 9/23, more than $10 million in longs were liquidated, sending price all the way to 82.5k. Price is now close to that level, but open interest is about 18% lower, and large-trader positioning is less extreme—the risk of a cascade is smaller, but there is also less fuel for a breakout. ETH remains relatively weak: the retail account ratio briefly reached 1.6 over the past two days, while the large-trader position ratio was only 0.70. Today they have converged to around 1.13 / 1.07—better, but still weaker than BTC. Don’t expect sudden macro easing either: after softer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, expectations for an October rate hike fell, but 10-year U.S. Treasuries are still around 5.25%, and the dollar remains above 102. The short end is easing while the long end remains tight, so selling above 87k is not surprising. **My view** If the daily candle does not close above 87.4k, this is still a range. For a genuine breakout, I want to see open interest rise along with price, while retail does not rush above 1.3 to chase longs—the sell-off on 9/23 only began after retail switched to longs at the highs. Conversely, if the large-trader position ratio falls below 1.1 and price breaks below 84.5k, it would look more like whales withdrawing; the first target would be 82.5k. I won’t chase between 86k and 87k.

$ETH monthly timeframe direction is moving upward

$ETH ETH is due for a pullback. Watch your position size—either a sharp surge or a steep plunge, and the move will likely be significant. ❤