CME FedWatch shows 92.7% odds of a 25bps hike today, lifting the target to 3.75%-4.00%. CryptoQuant's Axel Adler Jr. flagged the historical record: among the seven first hikes since 1988, the S&P fell six weeks later in five instances, averaging -2.83%. Seven episodes is a small dataset — two produced gains — but the mechanism is coherent: regime changes take weeks to reprice. The market has largely priced this hike; the risk is what comes after in the dot plot. Prediction markets sit 5-6 points below CME — partly because rates markets aggregate hedging demand alongside directional views, inflating implied probability. At 92.7%, a hold is the bigger shock: LMAX's Joel Kruger sees "greater potential for an outsized move in risk assets to the topside should the Fed fail to deliver." Talos recorded a 28% net buying tilt toward stablecoins ahead of the meeting versus an 8% average selling tilt around prior FOMCs.$BTC ‌ Bitcoin buying conviction fell to 3% from 10%, ether$ETH ‌ to 9% from 23%.$BZ #BTCDrops3.3%

et$ETH ‌Support below at 2360-2378; continue upward. There is a chance of breaking the previous high. Exit if the key 2350 level breaks; wait for a major pullback around 2110. ↑

$BTC This short position wasn’t captured by guessing the top; I waited until the structure broke down before entering. After consolidating at the highs for so long, the final push couldn’t even reach the previous high, while the pullback broke straight through the short-term moving averages. That was the confirmation I was looking for. From the price action, two signals were most important: first, the key levels kept moving lower, forming a descending structure; second, rebounds came on declining volume while sell-offs came on rising volume, showing that selling pressure was dominant. Above, I’m continuing to watch the previous high and the dense area of moving averages that were broken; below, the first key level to watch is the previous low. As long as the rebound fails to reclaim the key-level zone, the bearish momentum hasn’t been interrupted. I’m executing in batches on an 80/20 basis: 80% of the larger position has already been taken off the table, and I’m trailing the rest with a protective level. If BTC forcefully reclaims the previous high, I’ll close this trade immediately. Not chasing a missed opportunity is a rule I set for myself. There are opportunities every day; understanding the structure once is worth more than chasing ten times. $ADA $ETH