#Glassnode称BTC呈牛市特征
#GateSquareMidAutumnReunion
Bitcoin has recovered strongly, but the bigger question is whether this recovery can develop into another sustained expansion. Glassnode’s recent analysis remains constructive, particularly because entity-adjusted SOPR is holding above 1. When this signal is combined with Bitcoin’s price recovery, ETF flows, realized profit, selling pressure and market structure, the picture looks bullish but still requires confirmation.
Bitcoin recently moved back above $80,000 and traded around the $80,300–$81,300 area, with the September 19 range reaching roughly $77,968–$81,675. From the lower part of the recent range, the recovery has been substantial. Glassnode also highlighted that Bitcoin gained around 23% over 21 trading sessions while major U.S. equity benchmarks were broadly flat over the same period. At the same time, BTC was still around 10% below its year-to-date level in the earlier September analysis, showing that the recovery had repaired only part of the previous decline.
The most important on-chain signal is SOPR. Entity-adjusted SOPR above 1 indicates that coins being spent are, on average, realizing profits rather than losses. More importantly, the market has been able to absorb those realized profits without immediately breaking down. That makes the current environment different from a market where profit-taking is overwhelming demand. A sustained move below 1 would be a much more meaningful warning because it would indicate that realized losses are becoming dominant.
The major technical and on-chain challenge is the $83,000–$86,000 region. This area contains a significant concentration of previously acquired Bitcoin, creating potential overhead supply. From around $80,000, reaching $83,000 would require roughly +3.75%, while $86,000 represents approximately +7.5%. The important point is not simply reaching these prices, but whether BTC can establish acceptance above the zone instead of producing a short-lived spike.
Liquidity makes this resistance even more interesting. The short-liquidation area around $82,000–$86,000 has increased compared with the August short squeeze, while the broader liquidation map has contracted. If Bitcoin pushes through resistance with strong spot demand, short covering could add additional buying pressure. But if price rises mainly through leverage and then quickly loses the breakout area, the signal would be considerably weaker.
Glassnode’s selling-pressure data also provides useful context. The seven-day Sell-Side Risk Ratio was around 7 basis points per day, below the approximately 16 basis points recorded around the August peak. It was also considerably below the roughly 35 and 23 basis-point readings associated with previous major market highs. This suggests that current realized profit-taking is not occurring at the same intensity as those historical high-pressure periods.
Another important change is the composition of realized profits. Long-term holders accounted for roughly 47% of realized profits recently, compared with approximately 88% around the August peak. The decline suggests that long-term-holder distribution has become less dominant. That does not eliminate selling pressure, but it provides useful evidence that the current rally is not being driven by the same degree of long-term-holder realization seen at the earlier peak.
ETF flows add another layer. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $433 million of net inflows on September 18. Fidelity’s FBTC contributed about $310.7 million and BlackRock’s IBIT around $108.4 million, meaning those two funds represented almost the entire reported daily inflow.
However, the broader weekly picture was much less aggressive, with the week ending September 18 producing only around $6.2 million of net inflows after earlier withdrawals offset much of the later buying.
That difference is important. A $433 million daily inflow demonstrates that institutional demand can return aggressively, but the relatively small weekly net figure shows that demand has not yet been consistently one-directional. Ethereum ETFs also experienced approximately $144 million of inflows on September 18, while the broader week remained negative. Capital is therefore active, but flows remain volatile and selective.
Derivatives and liquidity should also be watched carefully. High open interest combined with extremely positive funding can make a rally vulnerable because excessive leverage increases liquidation risk. A healthier continuation can occur when leverage is reduced while BTC price remains resilient. In that situation, the market is clearing speculative excess without necessarily damaging underlying spot demand.
Bitcoin’s relationship with altcoins is another useful signal. Glassnode highlighted strong altcoin market-cap growth, but Bitcoin continued to maintain its relative position instead of experiencing the kind of aggressive capital rotation normally associated with mature speculative phases. That means the broader crypto market can recover while BTC remains the primary leader of the risk curve.
For me, this makes the current setup more interesting than simply calling Bitcoin bullish. The market has recovered around 23% over the highlighted 21-session period, SOPR remains above 1, selling-pressure indicators are below previous peak levels, long-term-holder profit realization has declined from approximately 88% to 47%, and the latest major ETF session brought roughly $433 million of fresh inflows.
At the same time, Bitcoin still faces significant supply between $83,000 and $86,000, while weekly ETF demand remains much less impressive than the strongest individual session.
That creates a clear confirmation zone. Bitcoin does not need to move straight upward to preserve a bullish structure. A 2%–5% correction, sideways consolidation or leverage reset can occur without automatically changing the broader trend. What matters is whether demand continues absorbing supply, whether major support remains intact and whether SOPR can stay above 1.
The key levels are therefore simple: $80,000 remains an important psychological reference, while $83,000–$86,000 is the major resistance area that needs to be overcome. A sustained breakout above that zone with strong spot participation would provide stronger evidence that the recovery is developing into another expansion phase. Conversely, losing $80,000 would become more concerning if it were accompanied by weakening ETF demand, increasing realized losses and a deterioration of SOPR toward or below 1.
My reading of Glassnode’s message is therefore constructive but measured. Bitcoin’s underlying structure has remained resilient, but bullish does not mean guaranteed upside. The market is currently testing supply rather than moving through a completely clear runway. The strongest confirmation would come from three things working together: SOPR remaining above 1, sustained spot and ETF demand, and BTC successfully overcoming the $83,000–$86,000 resistance area.
For now, the data suggests that Bitcoin’s bullish structure remains intact, but the next major move needs confirmation from actual price acceptance and demand. The ability to absorb supply is more important than any single green candle, and that is exactly why the $83,000–$86,000 battle deserves the market’s attention.
