#每周来晒 #布局本周交易
How will we trade during the first week of Uptober?
Last week was another shocking seven days, with Bitcoin locked between 64000 and 67000, unable to choose a direction. In terms of market structure, funds are no longer broadly rising or falling, but rapidly rotating among major coins, popular altcoins, and U.S. stock concept tokens. Switching sectors daily and hot spots every two days has become the norm. Entering October, the historically strong performance of cryptocurrencies naturally makes people speculate, but Xiaocaishen believes this Uptober may see extremely high volatility. Getting the rhythm right is far more meaningful than simply guessing when BTC will reach 90,000:
1️⃣My trading plan for this week: focus on light-position swing trades, buying dips in batches and reducing positions at highs, while avoiding staying fully on the sidelines or adding heavily to positions
Last week’s stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data still failed to push BTC above 90,000. With no major data releases this week, Bitcoin is expected to continue ranging. My strategy is to leave long-term long positions untouched while selling short-term positions at highs and buying at lows, and I will not short.
1. Position-increasing strategy: only buy dips in batches, and do not chase highs when adding positions
I have no plans to add to positions while chasing highs this week. All position increases will target quality assets that undergo deep pullbacks, stabilize, and see declining volume. The market currently has 4.35 billion in long leverage hanging overhead, making a technical pullback highly likely after a short-term rebound. Chasing highs to add positions will most likely mean absorbing selling pressure at elevated levels. Bitcoin’s current strong support is around 84000-85000. I will open long positions in batches if the price falls into this range, while also positioning in quality low-priced altcoins on my watchlist.
2. Position-reduction strategy: take profits in batches at rebound resistance levels, eliminate weak holdings, and never short
When major coins rebound to short-term resistance zones, altcoins rise on heavy volume but fail to advance, or sector hot spots rotate, I will immediately take half profits. For weak holdings that underperform the broader market for three consecutive days, lack fund support, and have no positive fundamental catalysts, I will liquidate them and cut losses directly, freeing up capital to rotate into quality assets and avoiding ineffective holdings tying up funds.
At the same time, although I expect this week’s market to range, I will absolutely not open short positions at high levels against the trend. As I have explained before, Bitcoin’s current fifth wave of daily-chart gains has not yet ended, and shorts could be wiped out by a sudden move at any time.
2️⃣Sector priorities this week: BTC and ETH as the foundation, with U.S. stocks as a supplement
Since the second half of last week, the trend of fund rotation has become quite clear, with funds beginning to flow back into major coins Bitcoin and Ethereum. Previously strong altcoins have broadly pulled back, with only a few tokens such as Sand remaining at high levels. In addition, U.S. stocks surged strongly after last week’s nonfarm payrolls data was released. They are also expected to perform further after a pullback early this week, so they cannot be missed. This week’s sector priorities are clear: tier-one major coins > U.S. stock-compliant tokens > quality sector altcoins
Core base holdings: BTC and ETH, tier-one major coins (defensive core)
The current altcoin market is extremely fragmented. Only a few popular sectors, such as computing power, AI, and Layer2, have seen sustained capital inflows, while the vast majority of niche altcoins are stuck in gradual declines and pullbacks. This week, I will use only a very small portion of my position to cautiously test leading altcoins with solid fundamentals, sustained capital inflows, and policy attention in their sectors. Stop-losses will be set strictly. I will not blindly chase newly emerging hot spots or unknown small-cap coins, and will avoid high-risk speculation.
Core focus: U.S. stock-compliant tokens
U.S. stocks are the investment focus this week. The long-term bull market in U.S. stocks is beyond doubt, and the Nasdaq has once again formed an upward breakout pattern. Xiaocaishen remains focused on AI and technology stock-related concepts, particularly the previously mentioned SanDisk, Nvidia, Micron Technology, and SK Hynix.
3️⃣Review of my recent trades and holdings
1. Current holdings structure (65% total position, with 35% in reserve for flexibility)
This portfolio adopts a tiered allocation of “stable core holdings + arbitrage positions + trial positions,” with no heavy concentration in a single asset, maximizing risk avoidance while capturing opportunities.
Major-coin core holdings (35%): BTC (20%), ETH (15%). Holding logic: The two major coins have sound long-term fundamentals and clear bottom support. They are used to lock in the account’s basic market value and withstand systemic market pullbacks. I will not rotate holdings frequently, making only swing-trade adjustments by selling high and buying low.
Core arbitrage positions (20%): U.S. stock-compliant concept tokens SOL and XRP. Holding logic: Benefiting from the positive impact of expanded U.S. ETF offerings, they are receiving increasing institutional attention and should benefit first from short-term fund rotation. Their volatility is moderate and their returns are relatively predictable, making them the main arbitrage targets this week.
Niche trial positions (10%): Leading quality altcoins in the AI and Layer2 sectors. Holding logic: These sectors have long-term narrative value and have seen intermittent capital-driven rallies recently. Small positions will be used to test the waters and seek excess returns, with strict stop-losses to keep losses controllable.
2. Recent trading records and performance review
During the range-bound, rotational market of the past two weeks, I consistently implemented a light-position swing-trading strategy, without going all-in or trading with heavy positions. The account as a whole posted a modest 34% gain, outperforming the broader market’s range-bound returns.
The core source of profits: long-term Bitcoin long positions, along with short-term low-level ETH longs that have already been reduced at highs for profit. Niche altcoin trial positions posted a small 3.6% loss, mainly due to some hot sectors rotating too quickly and missing the pullback. I will further reduce the size of altcoin trial positions going forward.
3. This week’s trading approach
Core portfolio adjustment: reduce niche altcoin trial positions and shift some idle funds toward U.S. stock-compliant tokens, strengthening allocations to high-certainty sectors and lowering account volatility risk.
Major-coin strategy: buy BTC in batches on dips in the 80800-81000 key support range and take profits in batches in the 87000-87300 resistance range. Trade ETH between 3350 support and 3600 resistance; do not hold it long term, and enter and exit quickly.
U.S. stock token strategy: add small positions after pullbacks stabilize on declining volume; decisively reduce positions when prices stagnate on heavy volume and hot spots fade. Trade in line with institutional fund flows, without predicting the market—only follow the trend.
Risk-control bottom line: Any single trade with a loss exceeding 3% will be stopped out unconditionally; no single token may account for more than 20% of total funds; no more than 3 trades per day; avoid frequent and emotional trading. $BTC $ETH
