Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

美國CFTC主席塞利格在眾議院聽證會上強調對市場欺詐與操縱採取“零容忍政策”。他回應了有關5億美元石油期貨交易的質詢，並表示CFTC正擬定預測市場監管規則。塞利格還提到與SEC簽署合作備忘錄，加強數位資產監管。對於CFTC目前僅有他一位委員的情況，塞利格強調機構運作效率，並將招聘新員工以增強監管能力。

The IEA's Fatih Birol warned that restoring oil and gas production disrupted by the Iran conflict may take up to two years. The Strait of Hormuz's closure has significantly impacted oil supplies, with emerging economies facing the toughest challenges. Demand is already contracting.

In March, Singapore's non-oil domestic exports surged 15.3% year-on-year, driven by a 74% increase in electronic exports, particularly semiconductors. Non-electronic exports declined, but overall growth continues as the country updates its 2026 export forecast.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XBRUSD (Brent Crude UKOIL) has surged by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Alcoa Corporation reported a first-quarter revenue of $3.19 billion, down 5.3% year-over-year, missing expectations. Alumina production declined 5%, while aluminum output remained flat. The company maintained its 2026 guidance but anticipates Q2 EBITDA headwinds due to increased costs.

Lufthansa will ground 27 regional aircraft and end CityLine operations by year's end to cut losses amid rising fuel costs and labor strikes, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions affecting aviation in Europe.

Repsol has reestablished control over its Venezuelan oil assets following a deal with the government, planning to boost production by 50% in the next year despite previous U.S. sanctions that had limited its operations.

Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency warned that Europe's aviation fuel reserves could last only six weeks due to Middle Eastern turmoil affecting oil supplies, risking flight cancellations and impacting global economic growth, especially in developing nations.

Congo has established a strategic reserve for cobalt and critical minerals, mandating that 10% of cobalt exports be set aside for state purposes. This move allows the government to better manage the global cobalt market and complements existing export quotas.

Eddie Yue from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority states that Hong Kong's banking sector faces limited risk from Middle East tensions, though rising oil prices may impact energy-sensitive sectors. There's no increase in SME assistance requests, and the authority continues to monitor the situation. The anticipated 19.3% default rate for a special loan scheme is being managed through standard collection procedures.

The Trump administration will not renew sanctions waivers for Iranian and Russian oil, prompting threats of secondary sanctions against countries, particularly China, buying Iranian oil. This decision ends efforts to stabilize global oil prices amidst ongoing Middle East tensions.

Austan Goolsbee warns that high oil prices from the Iran war may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates until 2027, prolonging inflation above the 2% target and leading to a "higher for longer" interest rate scenario.

TotalEnergies anticipates strong first-quarter results driven by rising energy prices and increased production outside the Middle East, despite Iran conflict impacts. The company expects growth in oil and gas output and trading, against potential supply disruptions.

XRG, the investment arm of Adnoc, is seeking merger opportunities in Europe despite challenges in the petrochemical sector due to high natural gas prices. The company aims for significant LNG capacity by 2035 and has successfully completed major acquisitions.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, COTTON (Cotton) has surged by 4% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Rising hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire have spurred a global market rally, with stock indices hitting record highs and risk sentiment improving. As tensions ease, oil prices stabilize, the dollar weakens, and investor focus shifts to corporate earnings and growth amid declining inflation concerns.

The Baltic Dry Index rose 5.5% to 2,484 points on April 16, marking nine days of gains due to increased demand and reduced vessel supply, especially for Capesize ships. Rising iron ore imports from China signal robust market activity.

ERCOT warns Texas's power demand may quadruple by 2032, driven by AI data centers and population growth, potentially requiring capacity equivalent to 300 new nuclear reactors. Major tech companies are adopting self-supply models with long-term power agreements, while challenges like grid capacity and costs remain.

根據 The Block 報告，Hyperliquid 的 HIP-3 市場未平倉合約在4月達到23.8億美元的高點，但近期回落至21億美元。TradeXYZ 主導市場，占超過90%的份額。Hyperliquid 前十交易量主要由代幣化股票和商品期貨主導，提供24/7的交易服務，而傳統交易所無法提供此類服務。

美國商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）對特朗普政府伊朗政策調整前的原油期貨交易展開調查，涉及CME Group和ICE交易平台。調查著重於3月23日和4月7日的交易數據，投資者在停火前數小時建立了大量持倉。CFTC主席強調將追查任何違法行為，並面臨立法者呼籲進一步調查官員內幕交易。