I. Macro Background (Determines Medium-term Major Trends)

1. The Fed's Hawkish Expectations Strike Again (Core Negative)
The dot plot from the June FOMC meeting significantly raised the terminal rate, with the market pricing a 77% probability of another rate hike within 2026, pushing rate cut expectations directly to 2027.
Treasury yields and the US dollar strengthen, with the high-rate environment persistently suppressing risk asset valuations. Bitcoin and Ethereum, as high-leverage growth assets, face much greater downward pressure than gold.

2. Institutional Capital Continues to Flow Out, Exhaustion of Inflows
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net capital outflows for six consecutive weeks, the longest redemption cycle since their launch. Institutions are being forced to reduce positions and move to the sidelines for risk aversion, leaving the market to purely zero-sum trading among existing players.

3. Risk Appetite Wanes Across the Board
US tech stocks are correcting, and the VIX is rising. The crypto market is following the downturn, with concentrated liquidations of leveraged contracts amplifying volatility and magnifying short-term selling pressure.

4. Independent Negative Factors for ETH's Fundamentals
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken (consistently underperforming Bitcoin). On-chain activity is sluggish. The Q3 Glamsterdam upgrade currently lacks the narrative for speculative short-term capital, making ETH's elasticity even weaker.