Putin's staunch ally Lukashenko suddenly announces a long-term absence, handing over power to the Prime Minister, causing potential instability in Belarus

Presidente Lukashenko, who has been in control of Belarus for over 30 years and is currently 70 years old.
On June 23, he officially announced a significant decision, stating he would begin an indefinite, aimless long-term overseas official trip, with domestic daily affairs fully transferred to the newly appointed Prime Minister Turchin, who took office just two months prior.
The timing of this announcement is very delicate, just three days before Zelensky's ultimatum to Belarus at the border, which was issued a week earlier.
On one side, Ukraine has threatened to dismantle Russian military relay facilities at the border and cut off the Russian-Belarusian refined oil supply chain; on the other side, Russia has firmly stated it will retaliate in coordination if Ukraine crosses the border.
Caught between Russia and Ukraine, Belarus finds itself in a dilemma with no easy options.
Lukashenko's departure from the scene has instantly triggered global public opinion, raising questions whether it is for risk avoidance, diplomatic mediation, or an early power transfer plan.
The trigger for this entire incident can be traced back to Zelensky's deadline issued on June 19, setting June 26 as the final deadline.
As early as June 15, Lukashenko was already in a difficult position, and on that day, he proactively apologized to Zelensky for previously inflammatory remarks.
He admitted that his earlier misjudgment of border information and his aggressive comments towards Zelensky were inappropriate, and openly acknowledged Belarus's military weakness, stating it is incapable of handling the impact of the conflict.
The Belarus-Ukraine border stretches for 1,500 kilometers, and defending the entire line is extremely costly. If Belarus joins the conflict, NATO is very likely to deploy troops directly into Ukraine, and the local conflict between Russia and Ukraine could escalate into a full-scale war involving Russia, Belarus, and NATO.
This is a red line that Belarus cannot cross: dismantling facilities would offend Ukraine, but dismantling them would betray Russia.
There are no middle-ground options in the current situation.
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