Las expectativas de endurecimiento de la Reserva Federal en aumento benefician al mercado de bonos interno, el bono a 10 años del gobierno en 1.70% se convierte en un soporte clave, bajo la lógica de refugio de capital, las tasas a largo plazo tienen soporte, esperando una señal de incremento interno que rompa el estancamiento.

CITIC Securities stated that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the short term remains low, and market concerns mainly stem from sticky inflation and strong employment.
CME data shows that overseas rate hike expectations may begin from late October 2026.
Global liquidity tightening and market adjustments are early reactions to the Fed's rate hike expectations for the fourth quarter.
Regarding the domestic bond market, the increase in Fed tightening expectations is not necessarily bearish; the domestic bond market is relatively independent and may attract funds to shift into bonds due to overseas liquidity tightening and equity market adjustments, supporting long-term interest rates.
Subsequently, the 10-year government bond is expected to fluctuate around 1.70%, and a break below 1.70% will require domestic incremental information.