¿Podrá SpaceX superar los 2 billones de dólares en valor de mercado? Cómo planificar con anticipación en Gate Pre-IPOs

Eastern Time, May 20, 2026, SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, planning to list on Nasdaq on June 12, with the stock ticker "SPCX", targeting a valuation range of up to 1.75 trillion to 2 trillion USD, and raising approximately 75 billion USD. If the upper end of the range is successfully achieved, SpaceX will surpass Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO record of about 29.4 billion USD, with a fundraising amount more than 2.5 times that of the latter, becoming the largest initial public offering in human history. Meanwhile, Nasdaq has revised its rules to allow large IPOs to be quickly included in the Nasdaq 100 index within 15 trading days. This "space capital feast" by SpaceX is accelerating from a long-term narrative into a substantive pre-listing pricing stage.

Market Cap 2 Trillion USD: What is the Logic Behind Such a High Valuation?

From financial data, SpaceX's valuation is not based on its short-term profitability. According to the prospectus, in 2025, SpaceX's consolidated revenue was 18.674 billion USD, a 33% increase year-over-year, but net loss was 4.937 billion USD; in Q1 2026, consolidated revenue was 4.694 billion USD, with a net loss of 4.276 billion USD. Why is a company with a single-quarter loss exceeding 4 billion USD willing to be valued at nearly 20 trillion USD?

SpaceX's current business matrix consists of three main segments: Space (aerospace), Connectivity, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Among them, the connectivity segment centered on Starlink is currently the only profitable business, with full-year 2025 revenue of 11.387 billion USD, operating profit of 4.423 billion USD, EBITDA profit margin of 63%, and over 10.3 million users across 164 countries and regions. Although the aerospace segment achieved revenue of 4.086 billion USD in 2025, ongoing investments in Starship development resulted in an operating loss of 657 million USD.

The real imagination space supporting the valuation comes from the AI segment. In 2025, AI revenue was only 3.201 billion USD, but operating losses reached 6.355 billion USD. However, the prospectus predicts that the total addressable market for global AI, excluding China and Russia, could reach as high as 26.5 trillion USD. Additionally, SpaceX has signed a monthly compute leasing agreement with Anthropic for 1.25 billion USD, lasting until May 2029, providing stable medium- to long-term cash flow support for the AI segment.

Starship V3 First Flight Success: Technical Strength Endorses Valuation

During the IPO countdown, SpaceX completed the 12th test flight of Starship V3 on May 23, successfully deploying 20 Starlink simulators and 2 modified test satellites, with splashdown in a designated area in the Indian Ocean. Despite technical flaws such as booster return ignition failure and engine shutdowns during the test, the successful flight verified core capabilities including high-thrust engine cluster operation, stage separation, thermal protection systems, and payload deployment.

More notably, the performance leap of Starship V3: its low Earth orbit payload capacity increased from 35 tons in V2 to over 100 tons, making it the most powerful operational launch vehicle in human history. This capability breakthrough directly influences the deployment pace of SpaceX's three major businesses. In connectivity, in the second half of 2026, the next-generation Starlink V3 satellites will be deployed, with each Starship capable of launching 60 satellites, and a downlink capacity of 1 Tbps—about 20 times the current in-orbit V2 Mini satellites. For AI, the deployment plan of one million space-based computing satellites, starting as early as 2028, also relies on Starship's low-cost, high-frequency launch capability.

Several market analysts point out that SpaceX's valuation largely depends on its future vision rather than current fundamentals. Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities, states that a valuation of 1.75 trillion or 2 trillion USD cannot be justified solely by traditional financial metrics, but he also notes that many investors believe SpaceX could eventually become a company valued between 5 trillion and 10 trillion USD. The logic behind this judgment is that SpaceX has successfully integrated the three major tracks—rocket launches, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence—into a synergistic "space economy complex."

SpaceX IPO Timeline and Key Milestones

According to the latest market expectations, SpaceX will launch its global roadshow on June 4, finalize the offering price on June 11, and list on Nasdaq Global Select Market as early as June 12. The IPO plans to allocate up to 30% of new shares to retail investors, which is uncommon for IPOs of similar scale, reflecting SpaceX's high regard for retail participation.

However, this also means that pre-listing pricing negotiations will be highly competitive. Over the past six months, SpaceX's valuation has experienced a "triple jump": by the end of 2025, internal equity transactions valued it at about 800 billion USD; after merging with xAI in February 2026, it rose to 1.25 trillion USD; and the current IPO target valuation has further increased to 1.75 trillion USD. The capital markets are voting with real money for Elon Musk's "space civilization" vision, and this voting process is already starting early in the Pre-IPO market.

How Gate Pre-IPOs Help Users Get Early Exposure to SPCX

Ahead of the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, Gate has launched the SPCX asset certificate, becoming one of the first digital asset platforms to offer users early exposure to SpaceX's pre-listing market. As Gate Pre-IPOs' first project, SPCX uses a Mirror Note structured asset design. After distribution, it enters a 7×24-hour pre-market trading phase, allowing users to trade around the value changes of SPCX before the official IPO.

From a pricing perspective, market differences are quite evident. Traditional private market platforms, such as Forge Global, list SpaceX at a reference price of about 647 USD per share, corresponding to a valuation of approximately 1.54 trillion USD; Hiive's valuation is higher, at about 762 USD per share. Gate's subscription price before the 1:5 stock split was 590 USD, and after the split, the subscription price per share was 118 USD. The pre-market spot trading price once reached 189.90 USD, with a total increase of 60.93%. This indicates that the Pre-IPOs market itself is a forward-looking window for price discovery and early speculation.

It is important to note that Gate's SPCX is a Mirror Note and Contingent Payout Note structure, and does not represent actual SpaceX stock or equity. Users do not have voting rights, nor does it equate to IPO stock subscriptions. Its core logic is to reflect the value changes before and after SpaceX's listing, enabling users to participate in this "space economy pricing" at an earlier stage through digital assets.

Additionally, Gate Pre-IPOs offers several advantages: a low subscription threshold of 100 USDT, compared to traditional OTC platforms which require 45-60 days for settlement and charge 2%-4% fees. Gate's flexible exit mechanisms and zero lock-up periods are more friendly to retail investors. As the IPO window approaches, SPCX will become more accessible for market pricing, making the price discovery in the Pre-IPO phase more sensitive and efficient.

Summary

SpaceX is aiming to become the largest IPO in human history, with a target valuation of 2 trillion USD, reflecting a systematic valuation of the "space economy" era. Starlink provides the current profit base, Starship determines the pace of technological deployment, and AI offers a vision for the next decade—these three are interconnected, forming the fundamental narrative framework for SpaceX's trillion-dollar valuation. The IPO window is set for mid-June, and before the official bell, Gate Pre-IPOs provides users with an early channel for market entry and price discovery.

Whether the final valuation lands at 1.75 trillion or 2 trillion USD, SpaceX's listing will be one of the most watched events in the global capital markets in 2026. For investors seeking early positioning, understanding SpaceX's core business logic, mastering key IPO milestones, and managing positions and risks through Gate's Pre-IPOs products are pragmatic ways to gain an advantage in this historic capital event.

FAQ

¿Cuál es la fecha exacta del IPO de SpaceX?

A: Según las últimas expectativas del mercado, SpaceX iniciará su roadshow global el 4 de junio, determinará el precio de emisión el 11 de junio, y podrá cotizar en Nasdaq Global Select Market a partir del 12 de junio, con el código SPCX.

¿Es razonable una valoración de 2 billones de USD para SpaceX?

A: Desde un punto de vista de métricas financieras tradicionales, el nivel de rentabilidad actual de SpaceX no respalda esa valoración. Pero lo que más valoran los mercados es su potencial futuro: crecimiento sostenido de beneficios de Starlink, la capacidad de lanzamiento de bajo costo de Starship, y el mercado total direccionable de 26.5 billones de USD para la inteligencia artificial.

¿Cuál es la diferencia entre SPCX en Gate Pre-IPOs y las acciones de SpaceX?

A: SPCX es un activo estructurado tipo Mirror Note, que no corresponde directamente a acciones o participaciones reales de SpaceX. Los usuarios no tienen derechos de voto ni participación en la empresa. Su lógica central es reflejar los cambios de valor previos y posteriores a la cotización de SpaceX, permitiendo la discovery de precios en tiempo real antes del IPO.

¿Por qué las diferencias de precio previo al IPO de SpaceX en distintas plataformas son tan grandes?

A: Las plataformas utilizan diferentes estructuras de productos, mecanismos de liquidación y tipos de clientes. Las plataformas OTC tradicionales (como Forge, Hiive) manejan acciones reales, con períodos de bloqueo largos y comisiones altas; en cambio, los productos Pre-IPOs en CEX usan exposiciones sintéticas o certificados de activos, con mayor liquidez, menor barrera de entrada y mecanismos de fijación de precios distintos.

¿Qué impacto tendrá el IPO de SpaceX en la industria aeroespacial comercial?

A: Si SpaceX logra una valoración de 1.75 a 2 billones de USD, establecerá un punto de referencia de valoración muy alto para el sector aeroespacial comercial global, posiblemente acelerando la entrada de más empresas en los mercados de capital, y presionando a otros países a acelerar su desarrollo en la industria aeroespacial comercial desde una perspectiva competitiva internacional.