¿La reducción del 14% en Coinbase, cuál es la verdadera causa: el mercado bajista o la inteligencia artificial?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Beijing time May 5 evening, the number one compliant major firm in the crypto world Coinbase officially announced a 14% layoff, expected to cut about 660 employees. The layoff notices have now been sent via email, and all affected US employees will receive at least 16 weeks of base salary (an additional 2 weeks for each year worked), next vesting of equity, and six months of COBRA health insurance, with employees holding work visas receiving additional transitional support.

In the layoff announcement, Coinbase founder and CEO Brian Armstrong stated that there are two main reasons for the layoffs, with Armstrong focusing on explaining the second.

First is the market environment — Coinbase’s business performance will still fluctuate with market cycles. To cope with the current downturn, it is necessary to immediately adjust the cost structure to enter the next growth phase in a leaner, faster, and more efficient state.

Second is the AI technology revolution — Armstrong emphasized that AI is changing the way companies work. Now, an engineer skilled in AI can complete in days what previously took a team weeks to accomplish, and non-technical teams are also beginning to deliver production-level code. This change is accelerating daily, and all companies, including Coinbase, are facing the same test. Rather than sitting idly, it’s better to proactively and consciously adjust, rebuilding Coinbase into a lean, fast, AI-centered company.

• Odaily note: Here’s a side note, Armstrong’s statement that “non-technical teams can also deliver production-level code” sparked some controversy on X. As a company that directly manages user assets and has previously had an information leak scandal, some industry professionals have criticized Coinbase’s business rigor based on this.

Looking ahead, Coinbase hopes to fundamentally change the company’s operation — rebuilding Coinbase as an “intelligent entity,” with humans coordinating at its edges. Specifically, Coinbase will push for organizational hierarchy compression (no more than 5 layers below CEO/COO), requiring management to participate in frontline work, and build more flexible small-scale organizations around AI talent.

Using AI as a Reason for Layoffs, a New “Trend” in Silicon Valley

Layoffs justified by “AI iteration productivity” are no longer new.

Last October, Amazon laid off up to 30,000 positions across logistics, payments, gaming, and cloud computing departments. The company’s CEO Andy Jassy had previously hinted at this round of layoffs: “As the company increasingly uses AI to perform tasks previously done by humans, Amazon’s workforce size may shrink.”

At the end of February this year, Jack Dorsey’s fintech company Block announced 4,000 layoffs, reducing its workforce from over 10,000 to less than 6,000, to promote a leaner, flatter, AI-centric organizational structure. Block’s CFO and COO Amrita Ahuja revealed that after the layoffs, many corporate executives proactively contacted Block seeking to replicate this “script.”

In mid-April, Snap also cut about 1,000 jobs, with CEO Evan Spiegel stating: “AI will enable our team to reduce repetitive work, improve efficiency, and better support our community, partners, and advertisers.”

Following suit, Reuters reported that Meta plans to launch its first round of large-scale layoffs on May 20, cutting about 10% of its global staff (around 79,000 employees), approximately 8,000 people. Insiders revealed that Meta also plans further layoffs in the second half of the year, but the specific timing and scale are yet to be finalized. With ongoing observation of AI capabilities, Meta’s senior management may adjust these plans.

• Odaily note: See “Jack Dorsey’s company, 4,000 white-collar workers being replaced by AI”; “After returning to the AI table, is Zuckerberg’s first move layoffs?”*

But are these really the main reasons these companies are choosing layoffs? The answer may not necessarily be. Several industry leaders have commented that many companies citing “AI iteration productivity” as a reason for layoffs are actually just hiding business prospects or revenue pressures.

At Nvidia’s GTC2026, Jensen Huang criticized companies using AI efficiency as a reason for layoffs: “Those leaders who rely on layoffs to cope with AI are just because they can’t think of better solutions; their minds are already out of ideas, and even with powerful tools, they won’t be used for expansion.”

Tech journalist Derek Thompson also commented after Coinbase announced layoffs: “AI is indeed good at coding…but many layoff plans were already in motion, now just masked by AI. Historically, technological shifts tend to accelerate during economic downturns, so struggling companies have to do more with fewer resources first.”

Compared to other companies that performed well during layoffs (like Block), Coinbase’s situation seems more prone to this logic.

Coinbase’s Real Revenue Pressure

The core nature of Coinbase’s business determines that its revenue is highly correlated with the cycles of the cryptocurrency market.

As shown in the chart above, since the crypto market peaked in Q2 2025 and entered a bear phase, Coinbase’s revenue and net profit data have shown a clear shift — slowing or even declining revenue growth; net profit shrinking significantly for three consecutive quarters, with a massive loss of $670 million in Q4 2025 (mainly due to crypto asset impairments).

Currently, although BTC has recently regained the $80,000 mark, there are no signs of market cycle rotation in the short term. Against this backdrop, Coinbase has very strong and direct motivation to “reduce costs and increase efficiency.”

According to Dragonfly investor Omar Kanji, after a 14% layoff, Coinbase is expected to save $225 million annually in salary expenses. This will undoubtedly greatly ease Coinbase’s current revenue pressure.

Friday’s Earnings Report

As of 23:20 Beijing time on May 5, COIN’s stock price was temporarily at $198.98, down 1.98% for the day. It seems the market is not very interested in this layoff announcement.

On May 7 (Beijing time May 8), after the US stock market closes, Coinbase will officially release its Q1 2026 financial results, and hold a video conference at 5:30 on May 8 to interpret the results. But considering the Q1 crypto market conditions, it’s hard to be optimistic about this earnings report.

How Coinbase’s actual revenue is right now will be revealed in just a few days.