Just finished a night run and casually checked the blockchain, saw that kind of "large transfer + exchange hot and cold wallets move," the comment section immediately started shouting "smart money is coming"… I feel a bit amused and a bit anxious. To put it simply, many so-called "coincidental transfers" are actually: A first transfers U to a relay address, waits a few minutes, then distributes in batches, finally ending up at the exchange's collection/market-making address. The path looks mysterious, but it's really like moving boxes. If you want to judge properly, don't focus on a single transaction; look along the previous and next hops: is it the same set of addresses repeatedly sending and receiving, is there a fixed collection point, is the gas set like a script. Anyway, I now look at the path first and then the sentiment; if the mainnet gets too expensive, I’ll withdraw to the second layer, okay?