Just a bunch of push notification red dots on the phone: "Stablecoin supply hits a new high" "ETF net inflow has returned," the comment section has already started to assume "the next wave will take off." I can't help but feel a bit amused... Correlation is a very deceptive thing, to be honest, more stablecoins might mean buying, or it might just be sitting there waiting for a more certain direction; ETF inflows and outflows are the same, off-chain money doesn't have just one entry point, and it's not immediately pushing on-chain once it comes in.

Recently, I also compared RWA, US bond yields, and various "yield products" on-chain, feeling like everyone is looking for a "more stable story." But I still prefer to see how funds actually move on-chain, whether it's transitioning or retreating, rather than just stacking a few curves and treating them as a causal chain. Anyway, I plan to stay cool first, less speculation, more data.