#CLARITY法案未获通过 CLARITY Act Stalls, BTC Breaks Below $75,000—What’s the Outlook?
On September 15, the U.S. Senate’s procedural vote: 49 in favor and 50 opposed, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold, leaving the CLARITY Act stalled (four Republicans defected while all Democrats opposed it; the core dispute was the provision on Trump’s crypto conflicts of interest). Congress is about to recess, making legislation within 2026 essentially impossible and confirming that the regulatory vacuum will be prolonged.
Market reaction: BTC fell more than 3% in the short term, briefly breaking below $75,000 (a low of $75,560, the lowest level in 3.5 weeks since August 21), before quickly rebounding above $76,000; Coinbase fell 10%, Circle fell 11%, and Strategy fell 5%.
Key judgment: Most of the negative news has already been priced in, but the real dividing line is the FOMC early tomorrow morning
The “substance” of this decline needs to be distinguished:
First, the bill’s failure itself was already priced in by the market. Polymarket’s probability had already fallen to 16-19% before the vote, while Galaxy gave it only a 10% chance, and BTC had already fallen 15% this year—the “CLARITY premium” had long been squeezed out. So after the news became official, BTC broke below $75,000 but quickly recovered above $76,000 without a panic crash, which itself is a signal that the negative news has been fully priced in.
Second, the prolonged regulatory vacuum is a medium-term constraint, not a short-term collapse. Institutional capital—especially from traditional U.S. institutions—will continue to wait and see, while the supply ceiling of 1.05 million BTC held by long-term holders in the $83,000-$86,000 range remains in place. This means rebound potential is constrained, but there is likewise no new source of panic driving further declines.
Third, the real variable: the FOMC rate decision early on September 17 (Beijing time). Goldman Sachs expects a 25bp rate hike, while the probability of a hike had previously surged to 66%. This is the card that will determine BTC’s short-term direction—the bill is sentiment, while interest rates are the cost of capital.
Outlook: Three scenarios
Scenario A (base case): 25bp rate hike + dovish wording. With the negative news fully priced in—the bill’s failure and the rate hike both delivered—BTC will most likely consolidate and build a base in the $75,000-$78,000 range. RSI is already oversold (<40), while the daily MACD has formed a bearish crossover, so a technical rebound could occur at any time.
Scenario B: Hawkish rate hike (hinting at consecutive hikes). BTC will most likely test $72,000-$73,000. If $75,000 is breached, it could fall toward $70,000-$72,000 (analyst Zhuoer’s forecast range).
Scenario C: Unexpectedly holding rates steady/dovish stance. BTC rebounds directly, targeting $78,000-$80,000.
Conclusion and strategy
Conclusion: The bill’s failure is the “shoe dropping,” and BTC’s most panic-driven wave may already be over (the rapid recovery above $75,000 is evidence), but don’t rush to buy the dip before the FOMC. September is historically BTC’s weakest month (an average of -2.95% since 2013), and together with the regulatory vacuum and rate-hike expectations, the short-term setup is “an oversold rebound without a reversal”—$75,000 is the lifeline, while $78,000 is the first resistance.
Trading reference:
- Holders: $75,000 is the stop-loss reference level. Don’t hold a position just because “it has already fallen so much”—if $75,000 breaks, it’s time to exit
- Those without positions: Wait until the FOMC decision is delivered (2 a.m. Beijing time on September 17) before acting. Dovish → follow on the right side; hawkish → wait and reassess around $72,000
- Medium-term perspective: The prolonged regulatory vacuum means the engine of this market cycle is shifting from “institutional tailwinds” back to “liquidity and technical factors”—stop going long based on expectations that “the bill will pass” and let the data speak
In one sentence: The bill is dead, but the market isn’t—the time for panic has not arrived, nor is it time to buy the dip; it’s time to wait for the Federal Reserve’s statement.
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