[Flowers] are all looking forward to the United States to cease, why not cease?
Why is the whole world watching for when the United States will cut interest rates? The recent financial war between China and the United States is about whether the United States will raise interest rates first and burst China, or whether the United States will be burst first. Raising interest rates in the United States means higher returns on savings, so hot money from all over the world is flowing into the United States. Money is flowing into the United States. Except for the United States, the whole world is short of money. [Street Dance]
As a result, both the Chinese real estate and stock markets are sluggish, while the United States is burdened with high interest debt payments. The current situation is that capital is flowing out of China, putting pressure on the economy, and the United States is under tremendous pressure to repay its debts. If the United States bursts the Chinese economy first, it can erode China's assets and even strengthen itself again. If China holds on, the United States will not be able to withstand the pressure of debt repayment, and interest rate cuts will lead to capital outflows, reviving the Chinese economy.
The essence of Sino-US trade is that China exports deflation to the United States, while the United States exports inflation to China. In the past thirty years, China has produced more and more industrial products, but there has not been enough consumption power, and deflation risks have been accumulating. The United States has printed more and more money, but there has not been enough corresponding goods, and inflation risks have been accumulating. However, the bilateral trade between the two countries has maintained a mild inflationary environment in the past twenty or thirty years, benefiting both sides.
Then the trade war came, the United States lost the world's largest industrial capacity in China, and its own currency could not digest it. China lost the world's largest consumer market in the United States, and its own production capacity could not be digested. So everyone saw the high blood sugar and low blood pressure across the Pacific Ocean, one side desperately raising interest rates to control their own inflation, while the other side desperately lowering interest rates to avoid falling into deflation.
In fact, since 2015, the old American strategy has been to solve the strategic threat of American hegemony to us, and then to harvest the main wealth of developing countries represented by us.
Some people may say that the contradiction should be eased just because Dr. Yellen came a few days ago. If you really think so, it's too naive. Because the purpose of the Americans' harvest has not been fully achieved, and the domestic debt contradiction has not been completely eased.
So this fight is unlikely to end. The Americans now have a debt of nearly 33 trillion. While carrying such a high debt, they still maintain a high interest rate. Now their money can't do anything every year, and all the money they earn is not enough to pay the interest. In this situation, the Americans will inevitably have to cut expenses in all aspects.
In the midst of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Americans have no money. In the midst of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Americans also dare not fully intervene. Why? Because they don't have money in their pockets. With such high interest rates, they may be able to sustain it for a few more years, but the Americans' options may be limited.
The first is a complete financial Miss Out, and the second is a complete lying flat with a high debt. So no matter how the credit of the US dollar collapses, no matter what the outcome, it may have far-reaching implications for him.
China dare not raise interest rates, the United States dare not lower interest rates. Conversely, China cannot lower interest rates, and the United States cannot raise interest rates. The situation has led to a showdown between RMB assets and dollar assets.
The winner takes all, the victor becomes a prince and the loser a thief, so no one dares to back down first. Originally, the US interest rate hike was a financial plunder of global wealth by the United States, with no fixed target for harvesting, anyone can be targeted.
It can be Europe, Russia, Muslim, Japan, South Korea, Latin America, Southeast Asia, as long as they have enough to eat. Of course, it is the best solution to harvest China, but after the US dollar interest rate hike, China, for the sake of maintaining foreign trade, real estate, etc., braved the US dollar interest rate hike, and conducted a reverse interest rate cut, and the renminbi expanded its influence worldwide, with a large number of countries being included in the renminbi system. The result of this operation is that the economic body of the US dollar world is being brutally harvested.
In countries within the RMB economic circle, the economy is relatively stable with the support of the RMB, and the two systems are once again in a positive confrontation. During the process of US dollar interest rate hikes, the currency swap agreements between the RMB and countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and Russia played a defensive role. In 2023, Argentina repaid $2.7 billion of debt due to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), of which $1 billion was provided by the Latin American Development Bank. The remaining $1.7 billion was paid in equivalent RMB under the currency swap agreement between China and Argentina. In 2022, Sri Lanka ran out of foreign exchange reserves and went bankrupt. The key was not the exchange limit of 10 billion RMB between the RMB and Sri Lankan Rupee, but the Chinese funds that caught the bottom in Sri Lanka, offsetting the penetration of US influence.
In 2022, Russia and Ukraine went to war, and the United States kicked Russia out of the international monetary clearing system, also effectively supporting the ruble with the renminbi. Holding the renminbi, Russia can purchase everything the country needs, proving that the renminbi has world-class purchasing power no less than the US dollar. As the renminbi gradually gains international currency status, a smokeless tug-of-war between the renminbi and the US dollar unfolds on the world economic map, becoming the focus of the world. Everyone is watching. Once the US dollar cuts interest rates, the world will think that the dollar hegemony is failing. Once the renminbi raises interest rates, the world will think that the renminbi is capitulating, leading to a situation where neither China nor the US dare to retreat.
Now Yellen's visit is just to buy them time, and the financial war against our country is the core war launched by the Americans. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is just the Americans gathering strength for this war, just the Americans harvesting our auxiliary battlefield. If you carefully study the timing of the Russia-Ukraine war and the American interest rate hike, you will find that they are very consistent and only two fronts of our financial war.
On our side, we not only have to face the pressure of capital outflow caused by the increase in interest rates by the Americans, but also to provide strategic support to the Russians. The reason why the Americans are causing trouble in Europe is just to make the funds in Europe flow to the United States quickly. At the same time, in order to prevent the funds from flowing to us, the Americans have started to raise interest rates, mainly to make the funds in Europe flow out together with ours, all flowing to the United States.
As long as Europe runs out of money, there will be no way to buy our goods anymore. And in order to prevent the Russians from being defeated by the Americans, we have to bear the international stigma and strategically support Russia, which has also led to the hostility and retaliation of Western countries against us.
We are a country that relies on exports to make money. Can we still do good business? But in this financial war, we are not completely passive, and we have also launched a strong counterattack.
If the US raises interest rates, we will follow suit, and those developing countries being drained by the US will need dollars, so we will give them dollars. Because we have a strong dollar reserve, but after giving money to these countries, the debt repayment will be in RMB.
We took this opportunity to establish good cooperative relationships with those brothers who have been bullied by the Americans. For example, we have conducted local settlements with countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, India, and Brazil. In order to expand the scope of this settlement, we have also promoted the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, further undermining the dominance of the petrodollar.
Watching the U.S. dollar fail in the Middle East and trigger the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is another international retaliation against the old American finance. Do you know why the Americans chose to negotiate with us now? It's not because they admit defeat, but because they are in a very difficult situation. They need to catch their breath and provide favorable conditions for further attacks. After all, they are still in the midst of domestic elections and need to consolidate their position.
Now Americans are also extremely embarrassed. If they continue to raise interest rates, the conflict between Palestine and Israel may escalate into full-scale war. Because many countries in the international community are no longer acting under American command, America is gradually weakening, especially the collapse of the manufacturing industry, which is visible to all countries. And with this return of the US dollar, we have provided a lot of support to many old partners who used to use the US dollar. When the US dollar lowers interest rates and wants to return to its original territory, it may not be so easy.
They may suddenly realize that many of these countries do not need the US dollar anymore because they have already conducted currency conversions, started settling in their own currency, or traded goods for goods. What's even more amazing is that there are many under-equipped countries that can go into the forest to pick up airdrops. Our conflict with the Americans is the main contradiction, and everything else is just pawns.
Now the interest rates in the United States are very high, and it's difficult to decide whether to continue raising them or to lower them. The continuous rate hikes have also led to a second magical phenomenon among Americans. Currently, the interest rates in the United States are inverted, what does this mean? It means that the interest rates for bank loans are lower than the interest rates for bank deposits, which is equivalent to everyone not needing to do anything.
Now go to the bank and borrow a million, then deposit it back. You can still make some money. It's not a bank, it's clearly a charity organization.
So everyone doesn't need to do anything, they can just lie down and make the bank's money. So anyone with a little common sense definitely knows that this interest rate inversion definitely cannot last long.
So people may ask, isn't the American dumb? Why would he pay such a high price to do this? In fact, in addition to his goal of harvesting this important global asset, he also plans to ignite our real estate market.
Like many major real estate companies in China, everyone knows that they have borrowed a lot of debt in the United States. For example, why did Evergrande collapse? One particularly important reason is that the debt in the United States is due, and when the United States urges the fund chain, it is directly cut off. While the United States is urging debt, it is also continuing to raise interest rates, which means that these real estate companies will face even greater pressure when repaying their mortgages.
If he can't bear it, then it will collapse. In addition, our stock market is also a key target of the Americans' attack. They often short first, then buy the dip, and harvest your low-priced assets.
Fortunately, there are experts in our country who quickly launched this stabilization fund.
Once this gets involved, China and the United States will inevitably have a hard battle in the financial field. As long as our financial market can stabilize, those negative comments about us will naturally be parallel.
As for startups and manufacturing companies in the United States, it is very difficult for them to raise money now. The money has all been used for stock speculation and stored in banks. You only see a few super big companies in the United States whose stock prices have skyrocketed, but no one sees that the stock prices of most Nasdaq companies have been hammered for the past few years.
Americans do indeed prefer to harm themselves by ten thousand in order to harm China by three thousand. It is impossible to have a manufacturing industry supply chain in a place where the daily transfer of the industrial chain earns an interest of 5.5%.
He directly locked up the social capital. In recent years, the manufacturing industry in the United States has been declining in electricity consumption. The point is here, to revitalize the manufacturing industry, the problem is that in order for the manufacturing industry to develop, it needs a large amount of low-interest funds and loans. Except for a very few violent industries, most of the manufacturing industry's profits are very thin loan interest, so in this financial war, who do you think will win and who will lose?
Do you think the news will bring a bull market to the crypto world?
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