━━━━━ Core Trading Data ━━━━━ Recently, a strong S+ level short signal for SOL was captured on the 4-hour timeframe. The trading pair is SOL/USDT, with entry price locked at 129.86. A light position is recommended (position control at 0.8%), and the signal is valid for 480 minutes. In terms of success probability, this signal has approximately a 54% win rate. Although not an overwhelming advantage, combined with multiple technical confirmations, the risk-reward ratio remains quite favorable. ━━━━━ Technical Background ━━━━━ The daily and slow trend indicators show a double bearish alignment, which is a relatively rare bearish resonance. The ADX strength indicator reads 81.7, indicating a very strong trend certainty. Regarding order book depth, the buy-to-sell ratio is 1.52:1. While this ratio suggests a bullish bias, combined with volume data, the main volume ratio reaches 1.5 times, with a volume increase significantly exceeding the average level by over 20%. Interestingly, this price level has been tested by the market 22 times, with a key level strength score of 65%, indicating a medium-strength convergence point. The synchronization of volume and price confirms the validity of this signal, providing solid support. ━━━━━ Take Profit and Stop Loss Plan ━━━━━ Stop loss is set at 133.2007, with risk controlled within 2.57%. The three take profit targets are: • First target 124.8489 (Risk-Reward Ratio 1.5:1) • Second target 121.5082 (Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5:1) • Third target 116.4971 (Risk-Reward Ratio 4.0:1) The upper band of the moving regression channel is at 147.27, the lower band at 127.9463, and the Fibonacci 0.618 level is at 139.8884. ━━━━━ Market Sentiment ━━━━━ Interestingly, the long-to-short ratio reaches 4.08:1, indicating an extremely bullish market sentiment, which contrasts with the short signal. This scenario of "many bulls but technical indicators suggest a pullback" often creates quick reversal opportunities. The signal strength score is 110/100, exceeding the baseline. However, it is important to note that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and strict stop loss and position management are key to trading success. The signal is for reference only; specific operations should be adjusted according to individual risk tolerance.

On-chain data tracking shows that a major holder withdrew 99,153 SOL from Binance about two years ago at a price of $192. At that time, the total value was approximately $19 million. Afterwards, he chose to stake this portion of SOL, planning to hold it long-term. What was the result? Recently, this major holder decided to unstake. The 98,328 SOL he unstaked, based on today's price, is only worth $12.34 million. It seems there might still be some reserves, but after careful calculation, he actually lost over $6.6 million over the past two years. What's more interesting is that he used a DCA strategy to gradually sell these SOL, meaning he didn't dump all at once. This case is a bit heartbreaking—even for a big holder, even with a relatively conservative staking strategy, it’s not guaranteed to make a profit in the crypto world. The decline from the high point of SOL was indeed significant, and a long holding period didn't turn the tide.

Recently mainly doing ultra-short-term trading, with SOL and ETH being the more familiar targets. To be honest, trading coins that I understand thoroughly gives me more confidence and makes it less likely to add leverage recklessly. By the way, there is a small game in the SOL ecosystem that is quite interesting. It’s a roulette-style lottery that is completely free to participate in. I tried a few rounds, and although I didn’t win the grand prize, I did get a small surprise of 0.1 SOL. Oh, and if any friends want to try their luck, my invitation code is SYP48Y5. Anyway, since I have free time, I might as well just entertain myself. Next time, I’m sure I’ll win a bigger prize.