The Gold and Silver Dilemma ... An important article, read it all without boredom to discover the secret ...
When looking at the raw numbers, a clear paradox appears: the global market value of gold is about 31 trillion dollars, while the value of silver is only about 4 trillion dollars, meaning the ratio between them is approximately 1 to 7. When we move to physical quantities, we find that the historically mined volume of gold is estimated at about 216,000 metric tons, while the volume of silver is about 1.750 million metric tons, which is a ratio close to 1 to 8. This ratio is quite similar to the ratio of market value.
However, when looking at the price per ounce, a clear disconnect appears, as the price of an ounce of gold reaches nearly 59 times the price of an ounce of silver. This gap does not reflect either the ratio of market value or the ratio of physical quantities, raising questions about the reasons behind this pricing distortion.
The main reason is due to the fundamental difference in their monetary functions. Historically, gold has been viewed as a store of value, a safe haven, and an alternative monetary base during crises. It is a metal that is almost not consumed, recycled, and stored across generations. Central banks hold it as part of their official reserves, creating a constant and stable monetary demand regardless of industrial use.
In contrast, silver is primarily treated as an industrial commodity, with more than 50% of it used in precise industries such as electronics, solar energy, medicine, and military applications. This leads to actual consumption that removes a large part of it from the economic cycle. Nevertheless, silver does not have an official monetary role nor is it included in sovereign reserves, which weakens its demand as a financial asset.
The picture becomes clearer when referring to historical benchmarks, where the gold dinar was equal to 8 silver dirhams—a monetary standard that lasted for many centuries. This was not random but reflected a real ratio between the two metals, consistent with the physical supply ratio close to 1 to 8. Although the actual pricing ratio historically was not fixed at this level and fluctuated over many periods around levels close to 1 to 33, it remains far from the contemporary levels approaching 1 to 59.
In recent years, this disconnect reached its peak, with the ratio between gold and silver prices reaching about 1 to 125 during 2020. This exceptional ratio was linked to the COVID-19 crisis and global lockdown periods, which led to a broad slowdown in industrial activity and a sharp decline in silver demand, while demand for gold exploded as a safe haven amid fear and uncertainty. This proved that the market treats the two metals with completely different functions.
Ultimately, holding silver poses risks during recessions, slow growth periods, or financial collapses, as it indicates a decline in industrial demand and a clear tilt toward gold. Despite the pricing injustice that silver has suffered in recent years, its position as a financial asset remains inherently weak due to its industrial demand and the lack of central bank holdings.
Any fundamental shift in silver’s role to become on par with gold as a monetary refuge would lead to sharp increases in the costs of electronic, medical, and military industries, posing a direct threat to the global industrial system. It could create inflationary pressures and production bottlenecks, opening the door to industrial recession and future technological decline. This makes the functional separation between gold and silver, despite its pricing distortions, a necessity driven by the need for balance between the financial system and the industrial system$BTC