Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

The IEA report reveals that global energy demand growth slowed to 1.3% in 2025, influenced by weaker economic growth, milder temperatures, and efficient technologies. Electricity consumption grew 3%, driven by a 38% surge in electric vehicle demand and a 17% increase from data centers.

Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Aref emphasized that restrictions on the country's oil exports are unacceptable, especially while others seek "free safe passage" in the Strait of Hormuz. He linked maritime security to global fuel price stability, warning of significant costs if a free oil market isn't ensured.

杜拜作為阿聯酋經濟核心，面臨戰火挑戰，自二月底以來遭受大量無人機與飛彈攻擊，影響觀光與石油貿易，導致國際航班減少及資本外逃憂慮，阿聯酋正積極洽談與美國的貨幣互換機制以應對潛在流動性危機。

美國海軍驅逐艦在阿曼灣摧毀並扣押伊朗貨船，導致市場避險情緒上升，比特幣下跌2.5%，布倫特原油飆升至97美元。伊朗誓言報復，外交談判面臨高度不明朗的局勢。週三停火截止期限成為市場關注的焦點。

近期中東地緣政治局勢緊張，荷姆茲海峽成為美伊軍事衝突的焦點，商船遭襲及扣押事件頻發，原油價格上漲。美伊停火協議即將到期，和平談判因立場分歧陷入僵局，達成協議難度高。隨之，比特幣價格跌破74K。

Oil prices rose sharply by over 7% amid escalating US-Iran tensions, causing a drop in US equity futures and a stronger US dollar against major currencies. Risk-sensitive assets faced significant losses.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XTIUSD (WTI Crude USOIL) has surged by 6% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

On April 17, just before Iran re-opened the Strait of Hormuz, a sell-off of $760 million in crude oil futures indicated potential insider trading amid rising U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions. The CFTC is investigating these trading spikes linked to policy shifts.

Hussein Ezzi, a senior Houthi official, warned that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed if peace efforts are obstructed, urging the U.S. and allies to stop actions hindering peace, highlighting the strait's significance as a maritime corridor.

Alcoa plans to sell its dormant Massena East aluminum smelter in New York to bitcoin miner NYDIG, with the deal closing by mid-2026. The facility's infrastructure makes it ideal for bitcoin mining, reflecting a trend of repurposing retired industrial sites.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will halt the export of about 4 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil in the coming three days, according to an Iraqi Oil Ministry official.

Iran is utilizing Bitcoin for oil transit fee settlements via the Strait of Hormuz, but stablecoins dominate actual fund transfers in these transactions.

The Trump-Iran war has severely disrupted global oil supply, cutting over 500 million barrels and causing $50 billion in losses in seven weeks. Analysts predict prolonged impacts on supply chains, with significant recovery delays expected.

Bitcoin rose to $78,000 but dropped to $76,091 following reports of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's actions triggered $762 million in liquidations among traders, with implications for crypto markets as Iran accepts payments in bitcoin and other currencies to navigate sanctions.

China's clean energy exports surged in March, with solar cell exports up 80% and EVs rising 53%, fueled by global demand amidst oil supply issues. However, domestic overcapacity and international tariffs pose challenges to the industry's growth.

India's Foreign Ministry summoned Iran's ambassador to protest IRGC naval attacks on Indian-flagged ships in the Strait of Hormuz, demanding an explanation. One ship carrying crude oil was damaged, but all crew members are safe.

Iran's Foreign Minister affirmed the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial shipping, ensuring freedom of navigation amid regional tensions, crucial for global oil exports.

UBS analysts predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points by 2026, despite rising energy prices. Fed Chairman Powell suggests limited tightening is needed, focusing on core inflation evidence before cuts. The forecast for Treasury yields indicates potential downward movement.

The U.S. Treasury renewed a sanctions waiver for Russian oil purchases through May 16, despite prior indications of no renewal. This led to sharp declines in Brent crude prices, provoking criticism from European officials and highlighting geopolitical tensions.

Turkey and Iran have not yet begun negotiations to renew their natural gas contract expiring in 2026, as stated by Turkish Energy Minister Bayraktar. Currently, Iran exports 9.6 billion cubic meters annually, but Turkey's actual imports were only 7.6 billion cubic meters last year.