Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

比特幣在經歷周末因美伊緊張局勢引發的劇烈波動後，於 4 月 21 日重回 76,000 美元附近。美國總統川普表示，美伊目前談判的協議將「優於」2015 年《聯合全面行動計畫》（JCPOA），且願意直接與伊朗領導人會談，言論一出暫時提振了市場情緒。但布蘭特原油持續波動至每桶 90 美元附近，使比特幣仍受謹慎情緒壓制。

The Trump administration has launched a claims portal for U.S. companies to recover over $160 billion in tariff refunds after a Supreme Court ruling. Major retailers like Walmart and Target are among those filing claims, with refunds processed by Customs and Border Protection in stages, typically issued within 60 to 90 days.

荷姆茲海峽近日再次成為台灣能源安全的焦點，尤其是台塑海運的「君善輪」載運200萬桶沙烏地阿拉伯的原油，正前往台灣麥寮港。雖然中東局勢緊張，船隻通行量創下新高，但美國總統川普明言伊朗政權更迭，可能使荷姆茲海峽的風險持續上升，市場需應對更長期的波動。

Battery-electric vehicle registrations in Europe surged 29.4% in Q1 2026, reaching nearly 560,000 units, driven by rising fuel costs. Significant growth was seen in major countries, contributing to energy security and reduced oil consumption. Global electricity demand grew 3% in 2025, mainly fueled by emerging markets, with buildings and data centers as key drivers.

4月20日，日本東北地區發生規模7.5強震，青森縣震度達5，並引發海嘯警報。地震對半導體供應鏈影響重大，尤其是Kioxia岩手廠，該廠佔全球NAND產能4%。停機檢查及復工情況將影響記憶體市場供應，此外，整個東北地區的半導體製造網絡也面臨風險，可能壓縮未來供給增量。

Kalshi and Polymarket face a potential Supreme Court showdown over the legality of prediction markets as inflation rises and stock markets hit record highs. The outcome may redefine how traders hedge economic risks amid conflicting court rulings on their operations.

川普首次在公開聲明中直接提到伊朗的「政權更迭」，並明言美方不受以色列影響。他借委內瑞拉作為類比，暗示對伊朗可能採取長期施壓策略。這將改變談判框架，並加大油價及市場波動的風險。台灣投資人需留意油價走勢、Fed聽證會反應及中美峰會的議程。

JPX日本交易所集團旗下的JSCC與瑞穗、野村及Digital Asset合作，啟動基於Canton網路的概念驗證專案，測試日本國債作為數位抵押品的可行性，旨在提高金融市場流動性與管理效率，並確保不違背現行法規。此計畫也涵蓋跨境交易場景，預示著日本國債在數位資產領域的應用潛力。

President Trump deemed it "highly unlikely" that the ceasefire with Iran will be extended and indicated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until a deal is finalized, with the current agreement expiring soon.

Oil prices surged over 5% after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship, escalating tensions with Iran. Brent crude rose to $95.46, while WTI reached $88.86. Iran warned of retaliation, highlighting ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iraq's Rabia border crossing with Syria has reopened after closure since 2011 due to security issues. This reopening, announced by Iraq's border authority, aims to enhance trade, movement, and energy transactions between Iraq, Syria, and neighboring countries.

Polysilicon futures in China surged due to policy signals aimed at regulating the solar sector, yet analysts warned that the rally is based on expectations rather than actual market improvements. Elevated inventory levels and supply-demand imbalances remain concerns.

Crude oil prices surged on April 19 after U.S. forces seized an Iranian-flagged vessel in the Gulf of Oman, raising supply disruption fears. Iran threatened to restrict access through the Strait of Hormuz, amid escalating tensions and potential impacts on global inflation and markets.

Gate News message, the largest on-chain SOL short position holder has opened a long position in oil. Over the past 10 hours, the trader deposited 9 million USDC into Hyperliquid and opened a 3x leveraged long position on 200,687 BRENTOIL, valued at $18.08 million. The trader continues to maintain a

霍尔木兹海峡封锁引发加密市场剧震，比特币先突破 78,000 美元后回落至 74,000 美元，市场依旧处于恐慌状态。本文深度解析地缘冲击与加密市场行情的传导机制。

The Philippines' DOE has implemented regulations on fuel price adjustments amid rising costs due to the Middle East conflict, granting the government authority to set minimum and maximum prices to curb profiteering. A significant rollback in fuel prices is set for April 21.

Multiple Chinese lithium companies in Zimbabwe have secured export permits for lithium concentrate. Huayou Cobalt's president announced that export procedures are underway, with shipments to China expected to take three months. Potential shortages in Guangxi lithium supply may arise but are not anticipated to significantly impact operations.

Singapore is increasing liquefied natural gas purchases from alternative sources due to Middle East conflict disrupting shipments. The Energy Market Authority is ensuring sufficient fuel supply as electricity tariffs rise, while pursuing diverse energy alternatives.

China is poised to import a record 800,000 tons of US ethane in April due to supply disruptions from the Middle East. The shift to ethane stems from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting naphtha and LPG imports. This surge aligns with new production capacities and upcoming US-China talks.

Germany's producer price index rose 2.5% month-on-month in March, surpassing expectations of 1.3% and reversing February's 0.5% decline, signaling a rise in producer-level inflation.