Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

Iran's Foreign Minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire, ensuring the safety of crucial shipping routes. This reflects Iran's commitment to maritime passage in the region.

Fatih Birol of the IEA predicts a two-year recovery for Middle East oil and gas production post-Iran war, with rising prices if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Global oil demand is projected to decline for the first time since the pandemic.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, OJUICE (Orange Juice) has surged by 4% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Hungary's Tisza Party chairman Peter Mogyoró announced that MOL may restart the "Friendship" oil pipeline soon, ensuring fuel supply security. He also aims for protective pricing for fuels post-government formation and is negotiating EU funding, hoping for an agreement during his first visit to Brussels.

A report by Vimeo reveals that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are prompting trade restructuring in the Gulf through alternative logistics methods, driven by increased war risk insurance, congestion, and governance uncertainty.

The PIDS warns that rising global oil prices could push 1.34 million Filipinos into poverty, particularly impacting lower-income families. The report advocates for targeted support rather than broad subsidies, emphasizing vulnerabilities in rural areas and certain regions.

川普在內華達州表示對伊朗的軍事行動進展順利，預測戰事將很快結束，並強調美軍的強大。他主要宣傳小費免稅政策，並回應媒體提問。自美伊達成停火協議後，局勢有所變化，但停火的真實結束時程與條件仍不明確，雙方存在諸多分歧。

On April 17, the Shanghai Futures Exchange restricted certain clients from opening positions after they exceeded daily transaction limits, violating trading regulations outlined in their management rules.

International oil prices fell on April 17, with WTI crude down 3% to $88.4 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.38% to $97.029 per barrel.

On April 17, the Salamar, a Pakistani-flagged oil tanker, became the first crude oil vessel to pass through the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. blockade began on April 13, carrying 450,000 barrels of oil from the UAE to Karachi, Pakistan.

Vale reported strong first-quarter results, with iron ore production rising to 69.7 million tonnes and sales increasing by 4%. Copper production also grew by 13%, while nickel reached a five-year high. Financial statements will be released on April 28.

The LME index soared due to geopolitical tensions causing aluminum supply disruptions and rising copper prices. Since February, aluminum prices surged 15%, with significant production halts in the Middle East. JPMorgan reports a severe supply deficit, predicting prolonged market challenges and further price increases.

South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that Park Jong-han visited Algeria and Libya to discuss emergency oil supply and energy cooperation. He confirmed potential purchases of Libyan heavy crude oil and sought trading quotas from the National Oil Corporation, which expressed willingness to assist pending technical conditions.

Vale's first-quarter 2026 report shows iron ore production at 69.7 million tonnes (up 3%), sales at 68.7 million tonnes (up 4%), copper production at 102,300 tonnes (up 13%), and nickel production at 49,300 tonnes (up 12%).

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the acquisition of 570,000 barrels of diesel from Brunei and South Korea during his visit to Malaysia. This marks the first strategic material secured under new procurement powers aimed at strengthening energy cooperation in Southeast Asia.

U.S. stock indices closed higher on April 16, with the S&P 500 reaching a record. Tech stocks surged, particularly within the semiconductor sector and Chinese companies. Crude oil prices rose, while precious metals declined. Analysts offer mixed views on the rally's sustainability amidst geopolitical tensions involving Israel and Lebanon.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the conflict in the Middle East as a source of inflation and economic slowdown risks. He confirmed that the Monetary Policy Committee will determine suitable measures to reach the 2% inflation target at the upcoming meeting.

美國CFTC主席塞利格在眾議院聽證會上強調對市場欺詐與操縱採取“零容忍政策”。他回應了有關5億美元石油期貨交易的質詢，並表示CFTC正擬定預測市場監管規則。塞利格還提到與SEC簽署合作備忘錄，加強數位資產監管。對於CFTC目前僅有他一位委員的情況，塞利格強調機構運作效率，並將招聘新員工以增強監管能力。

The IEA's Fatih Birol warned that restoring oil and gas production disrupted by the Iran conflict may take up to two years. The Strait of Hormuz's closure has significantly impacted oil supplies, with emerging economies facing the toughest challenges. Demand is already contracting.

In March, Singapore's non-oil domestic exports surged 15.3% year-on-year, driven by a 74% increase in electronic exports, particularly semiconductors. Non-electronic exports declined, but overall growth continues as the country updates its 2026 export forecast.