Gate Research: BTC and ETH in Weak Consolidation as MA Strategy Captures Trend Breakouts

BTC and ETH continue to trade in a weak, choppy structure, with prices trending lower and rebounds lacking strength. Volatility has spiked multiple times, reflecting fragile sentiment. On the derivatives side, leverage has not returned after a major deleveraging event, with open interest remaining at low levels. The concentrated long liquidations in early November further indicate declining confidence, suggesting that short-term downside risks remain. From a quantitative strategy perspective, the moving-average trend-breakout model has delivered strong performance in assets such as XRP, DOGE, and ADA, though it may still face signal delays and stop-loss whipsaws during strong one-sided trends. In contrast, the Gate Quant Fund employs a market-neutral arbitrage and hedging framework, emphasizing stable returns and risk control, offering investors a lower-volatility and more sustainable long-term allocation option.

Key Takeaways:

• BTC and ETH remain in weak consolidation as prices decline and volatility spikes: Over the past two weeks, both BTC and ETH have stayed in a weak consolidation pattern, with prices trending lower and rebounds lacking strength. Volatility has risen sharply multiple times—particularly for BTC—indicating fragile sentiment and heightened sensitivity around key price levels as major assets weaken in tandem.
• Leverage has not returned, with open interest holding at low levels: Following the sharp deleveraging at the end of October, BTC and ETH open interest has remained depressed, with no meaningful signs of re-leveraging. The derivatives market continues to reflect a cautious stance, and capital inflows remain limited, pointing to weak short-term confidence.
• Liquidations dominated by longs as short-term sentiment stays pressured: Early November saw a cluster of long liquidations, far exceeding short liquidations—evidence that downside pressure remains in control. Long positions continue to be unwound on failed rebounds, keeping sentiment cautious and preventing any meaningful trend recovery.
• Long/short ratio and funding rates oscillate near neutral, signaling directional indecision: The LSR fluctuated around 1, while funding rates rapidly flipped between positive and negative territory. This reflects ongoing tug-of-war between longs and shorts, limited follow-through from buyers, and a market driven more by volatility spikes than by trend continuation.
• MA trend-breakout strategies perform well, while the Quant Fund offers stable, low-volatility allocation: Moving-average trend-breakout strategies have excelled in assets such as XRP, DOGE, and ADA, successfully capturing structural breakout phases—though they remain vulnerable to signal lag and stop-loss whipsaws in one-sided markets. In contrast, the Gate Quant Fund employs market-neutral arbitrage and hedging strategies, emphasizing stable returns and risk control, offering investors a low-volatility and sustainable long-term allocation option.

Discover more details today → Gate Research: BTC and ETH in Weak Consolidation as MA Strategy Captures Trend Breakouts

Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides deep content for readers, including technical analysis, market insights, industry research, trend forecasting, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Disclaimer

Investing in cryptocurrency markets involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct their own research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from such decisions.

Gate Ekibi
21 Kasım 2025

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