The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points, basically in line with market expectations. The current feedback on the exchange rate and the US dollar index is normal. According to previous market expectations, after the increase this time, the key is how long it takes to stay sideways before starting to cut interest rates. Although due to expected management, it is still possible to increase in September, but this is already the end of the battle.
This round of interest rate hikes has been raised 11 times so far, with a total increase of 525 basis points, and the interest rate has also risen from 0%-0.25% to 5.25%-5.50%. It has basically reached the highest interest rate level since this century. This high interest rate, not to mention the financial pressure brought about by interest payments, lasts for a long time, which will inevitably strengthen recession expectations. Although the feedback from the U.S. stock market this year is still good, in the long run, if leading companies cannot continue to expand profits to support valuations, then there will be troubles in the future. These are acnes that grow on other people's faces. In addition to focusing on transmission factors, we focus more on counter-cyclical regulation. From the perspective of tracking and market expectations, our next RRR cut may be just before the Fed's policy loosening, and it will also be an inflection point in the market's long-term monetary environment changes.
Many people have no confidence in the economy, and even doubt its resilience. Looking back, in the past period of time, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times, and the global economy did not follow up once. Only we, this life bearer Over time, the surplus has expanded, and the sheep have not been sheared. This was unimaginable ten years ago, even in 2016 and 2017.
In the evening, the two messages were relatively hot, and both of them were considered heavy hits. One is the cooperation between Volkswagen and Xiaopeng, and the other is the implementation of Chengfei's asset injection.
Judging from the information that has been disclosed, the cooperation framework between Volkswagen and Xpeng is very clear, holding 4.99% of the shares, and empowering Xpeng’s intelligent capabilities to models in China. After the cooperation between the two models, it is expected to expand to other models. models and markets. The specific content of the cooperation between Audi and SAIC is still unclear. Considering the previous cooperation between Saudi Arabia and China's new energy, as well as the overseas cooperation of several new domestic forces that are being rumored, the joint venture model of China's auto industry is changing. technical output.
If Tesla has proved China's world-class competitiveness in new energy and auto parts, then German companies are now beginning to prove that China's intelligence has world-class competitiveness. It is only a matter of time before the integration of the two capabilities will give birth to a world-class competitive vehicle company. Japanese and Korean companies can continue to be jealous and arrogant. There will be another round of technological competition, and the intelligent capabilities of models will be upgraded from the current L2+ to L3+. What Japanese and Korean car companies are facing may not be a problem of market share, but a problem of survival.
Chengfei's asset injection has also landed. Although it took a long time, there was no bounce in the end. The bottom layer of the stock price game is actually the valuation of several core assets of the military industry. Although the performance of the military industry is not transparent enough, the industry structure is relatively clear, and the three companies of Chengfei, Shenfei and Xifei have relatively clear comparability. From the perspective of the entire industry, it actually benefits from the long-term investment in the two aircraft projects and the breakthrough of domestic large aircraft. The military industry is the forerunner of the entire aviation industry, and a fully independent development framework will eventually turn the military into civilians, which is reflected in the continuous improvement of the capabilities of large aircraft. From the model point of view, after Yun-20 and Yunyou-20, the H-20 will be launched when the update is in place, or to put it more bluntly, the later it comes out, the smaller the difference in level. As for the magic modification of J20, in addition to the two-seater version + loyal wingman, the possibility of subsequent boarding is also increasing. The J35, which was originally planned as Plan B, is also expanding its production capacity according to the public bidding information. After all, it is very useful to fold the wings. In addition, early warning aircraft, seaplanes, etc. are all developing rapidly. In addition to PLA orders for military industry, the follow-up competitiveness of the export version will also be very strong. After all, the level has risen and the price is good. At the same time, Russia has lost some shares. The key to export is not whether they buy or not, but who we are willing to sell to and what to sell. How many. In addition, it is the civilian use of military technology, which will become clear when viewed over a long period of time.
From the perspective of the market, the problem today is that there is not enough money. Automobiles, military industry, real estate, and securities, just these four, are enough to attract money. Follow the market.
So many codes first, typos will not be changed.
#Content Star#
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