Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

The IMF predicts a sharp decline in Middle Eastern economic growth due to the Iran war, with GDP dropping from 3.6% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026. The conflict has severely impacted oil and gas infrastructure, leading to a potential recovery delay of two years and causing global inflation to rise.

On April 15, Hong Kong's indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.29%. Key gains came from Alibaba-W and the innovative drug sector, buoyed by governmental support. Airline stocks also rebounded amid falling oil prices.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, COCOA (Cocoa) has surged by 6% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Iran plans to utilize alternative ports to bypass U.S. restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to sustain its maritime trade amid ongoing international pressure.

《華爾街日報》報導指出，香港已成為伊朗資金流動的關鍵樞紐，透過空殼公司每年處理高達48億美元的石油收益，並協助採購軍事科技。雖美國制裁不斷，香港依然成為伊朗影子銀行的重要據點，並透過小型銀行及海上轉運，避免美國金融體系監管。香港政府拒絕配合單邊制裁，助長了地下資金流通。美國因此改變策略，試圖提高設立空殼公司的難度以阻止資金供應。

The IMF has downgraded its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, citing risks of recession from rising oil prices and US-Iran tensions. Bitcoin has also dropped significantly amid poor macroeconomic conditions and rising global debt.

Donald Trump critiques UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the country's handling of immigration and oil policy. He expresses disappointment over the UK-US relationship and praises King Charles' upcoming visit, while also rebuking Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's remarks.

Japan plans to offer up to $10 billion in financial assistance to Southeast Asian nations facing rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. This aid aims to secure oil supplies and strengthen regional cooperation.

Copper prices rose as traders reacted to U.S.-Iran peace talks, reversing a six-week decline. Improved market sentiment, driven by increased Chinese demand and easing inflation fears, suggests long-term growth in copper demand, particularly from AI data centers.

X (formerly Twitter) launched its Smart Cashtags feature for iPhone users in the U.S. and Canada, allowing precise tagging of stocks and crypto assets to enhance accuracy and provide real-time data, marking a step toward becoming a leading finance platform.

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year, despite uncertainty from the Iran war and oil price volatility. She sees a broad supply shock impacting various sectors but suggests stable inflation expectations make rate hikes unlikely.

Chinese aluminum exports are set to rise as buyers seek alternatives due to supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. March exports increased by 13%, with forecasts predicting annual sales could reach or exceed past records due to heightened demand.

A whale address was liquidated for $10.3 million in long positions after a sudden oil price drop, resulting in a $1.14 million loss, as reported by Lookonchain. The positions involved crude oil futures benchmarks.

China's lithium battery exports surged 50% in Q1 2026, driven by preemptive shipments before a tax rebate cut. This increase comes amid heightened energy security concerns due to Middle East conflicts, significantly boosting profits for manufacturers like Ningbo Deye Technology.

The IMF has downgraded its global growth forecast due to the impact of Middle East conflicts on energy prices, presenting three potential scenarios. The adverse outlook suggests recession risks with rising oil prices affecting growth, particularly in emerging markets.

Gate News message, April 14 — WTI crude oil futures (U.S. benchmark crude oil) extended losses to 4%, trading at $87.113 per barrel as of April 15.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, GAS (Gasoline) has dropped by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

International crude oil futures fell sharply, with WTI down 7.87% to $91.28 and Brent down 4.6% to $94.79 per barrel. Iran is contemplating suspending shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing negotiations.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence in declining core inflation despite the Iran war, urging the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Rising consumer prices due to the conflict have impacted President Trump's approval ratings. Trump's Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, faces nomination delays but may soon proceed.