Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

Iran's Foreign Minister affirmed the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial shipping, ensuring freedom of navigation amid regional tensions, crucial for global oil exports.

UBS analysts predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points by 2026, despite rising energy prices. Fed Chairman Powell suggests limited tightening is needed, focusing on core inflation evidence before cuts. The forecast for Treasury yields indicates potential downward movement.

The U.S. Treasury renewed a sanctions waiver for Russian oil purchases through May 16, despite prior indications of no renewal. This led to sharp declines in Brent crude prices, provoking criticism from European officials and highlighting geopolitical tensions.

Turkey and Iran have not yet begun negotiations to renew their natural gas contract expiring in 2026, as stated by Turkish Energy Minister Bayraktar. Currently, Iran exports 9.6 billion cubic meters annually, but Turkey's actual imports were only 7.6 billion cubic meters last year.

On April 18, Ukraine's Armed Forces targeted four significant Russian oil facilities, including refineries and a transshipment terminal, aimed at disrupting fuel supplies to Russian forces. The damage assessment is ongoing, with no response from Russia yet.

荷姆茲海峽因美方未履行協議義務再次關閉，伊朗需重新批准船隻通行。川普稱談判進展良好，但核武材料處置問題仍是主要分歧，停火期限將至，暗示可能不延長，恐重啟攻擊。局勢緊張，對能源市場影響深遠。

The U.S. Department of Energy will loan over 26 million barrels of crude oil to nine companies, marking the third release of strategic reserves since the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict began, aimed at moderating oil prices. Delivery is set for May and June 2026.

President Trump announced that U.S. negotiations about a potential conflict with Iran will persist over the weekend. He firmly denied any possibility of Iran imposing tolls on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. is contemplating increased uranium imports from Namibia to support nuclear energy for AI data centers, as China dominates Namibia's uranium sector. Rising uranium prices are reviving mining interests, despite water supply challenges in the arid region.

Gate News message, April 18 — U.S. stock indices closed sharply higher on April 17, with the S&P 500 rising 1.2% to 7,126.06, the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.52% to 24,468.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 1.79% to 49,447.43. The Nasdaq extended its winning streak to 13 consecutive tr

In 2026, the aviation industry faces a crisis as three airlines, EcoJet UK, Royal Air Philippines, and Dove Airlines, entered administration or liquidation due to soaring jet fuel prices linked to geopolitical tensions. This has led to thousands of flight cancellations and increased operational costs for remaining carriers.

On April 17, investors sold significant Brent crude futures amid news of open passage in the Strait of Hormuz, causing prices to drop sharply. Lawmakers are investigating potential insider trading linked to these trades before key policy announcements.

美國白宮宣布荷姆茲海峽完全開放，允許所有商業船隻通行，但對伊朗的海上封鎖仍保持有效，直至交易完成。伊朗外長確認配合黎巴嫩停火協議，海峽恢復通行。此舉對全球能源供應影響深遠。

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XTIUSD (WTI Crude USOIL) has dropped by 8% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Gate News message, April 17 — WTI crude oil futures declined 10.14%, trading at $85.09 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures (London-traded benchmark) fell 9.03%, settling at $90.41 per barrel.

Iran's Foreign Minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire, ensuring the safety of crucial shipping routes. This reflects Iran's commitment to maritime passage in the region.

Fatih Birol of the IEA predicts a two-year recovery for Middle East oil and gas production post-Iran war, with rising prices if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Global oil demand is projected to decline for the first time since the pandemic.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, OJUICE (Orange Juice) has surged by 4% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Hungary's Tisza Party chairman Peter Mogyoró announced that MOL may restart the "Friendship" oil pipeline soon, ensuring fuel supply security. He also aims for protective pricing for fuels post-government formation and is negotiating EU funding, hoping for an agreement during his first visit to Brussels.

A report by Vimeo reveals that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are prompting trade restructuring in the Gulf through alternative logistics methods, driven by increased war risk insurance, congestion, and governance uncertainty.