Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), WTI crude oil speculators reduced their net long positions by 2,220 contracts during the week ending May 5, bringing the total to 106,278 contracts.

According to ICE, as of the week ending May 5, Brent crude oil speculators reduced net long positions by 9,000 contracts to 374,205, while fuel oil speculators cut net long positions by 1,621 contracts to 59,651.

According to Jin10 Data, Shanghai gold futures fell 0.21% to 1,037 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 0.09% to 19,864 yuan/kilogram, and SC crude oil gained 0.58% to 626 yuan/barrel as of 2:30 a.m. on May 9.

According to Jin10 Data, European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel signaled on Friday heightened vigilance over rising inflation risks due to the Iran conflict. The ECB is prepared to take action as needed to prevent energy cost increases from spreading more broadly to prices. Nagel

The U.S. natural gas rig count fell to 129 for the week ending May 8, down by one from the previous week's 130 rigs.

As of May 8, the total number of U.S. oil drilling rigs stood at 410, up from 408 rigs in the prior week.

According to Fitch Ratings, Brent crude oil prices are forecast to maintain $100–$110 per barrel during May–July amid Strait of Hormuz blockade concerns. The rating agency projects prices will decline to $70 per barrel by September following the blockade

According to Goldman Sachs, the bank now expects U.S. liquefied natural gas supply this summer to be 5 million tons/year lower than previously forecast.

According to JPMorgan Chase analysts on May 8, U.S. gasoline prices are "entirely possible" to rise to $5 per gallon as refineries prioritize aviation fuel production at the expense of other petroleum products. The current price has already reached $4.55 per gallon. Analysts noted that refineries ar

According to Nomura Securities analysts on May 8, if Brent crude oil prices hold near $90 per barrel, the Bank of England could raise rates by 25 basis points in 2026. LSEG data shows markets have fully priced in two consecutive 25-basis-point rate hikes by the BoE before

According to Barclays, as of May 9, the bank favors a long position in the December 2026 ICE diesel-Brent crude oil crack spread (the price difference between diesel and Brent crude). The crack spread was trading at $33.4 per barrel at the time of

According to Bloomberg, BlackRock has filed to launch tokenized shares for its $6.1 billion BlackRock Select Treasury Based Liquidity Fund (BSTBL) targeting stablecoin holders. The fund invests in cash, U.S. Treasury notes, and securities with remaining maturities not exceeding 93 days. The tokenize

According to Morgan Stanley, global oil inventories declined at a record pace of approximately 4.8 million barrels per day between March 1 and April 25, far exceeding previous quarterly peaks tracked by the International Energy Agency. The rapid depletion, driven by disruptions to Persian Gulf

According to BlockBeats citing Ai Yan monitoring, on May 9, a whale shorting altcoins faced drawdowns across 28 altcoin short positions and 1 crude oil short position, with total unrealized losses reaching $4.06 million.

According to Iran's parliamentary energy committee chairman, reported May 9, oil production across multiple fields nationwide continues uninterrupted. The official stated there are currently no official reports of oil leakage around Halul

According to CCTV News, China's State Council, chaired by Premier Li Qiang, approved the draft implementation regulations for the Mineral Resources Law on May 9.

According to CCTV News, German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd's executive Niels Haupt stated on May 8 that the company incurs over $50 million in additional weekly costs since the conflict began on February 28, disrupting transit through the Hormuz

According to German Airport Association CEO Ralf Baisel (via dpa), on May 9, aviation fuel shortage risks more flight cancellations and higher ticket prices. Baisel warned that in the worst case, airport capacity could drop 10%, affecting 20 million passengers across Germany. Budget airlines and

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), China's strategic petroleum reserves reached approximately 1.4 billion barrels as of end-2025, the largest globally. This exceeds the combined reserves of the U.S., Japan, European OECD members, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Iran, UAE,

美伊局势反复扰动全球资产，比特币自冲突升级以来累计上涨约 20 %。本文拆解原油-通胀-风险资产传导链，分析地缘冲突下的加密市场逻辑。