TraderLars

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2025-12-31 07:52

Happy New Year in advance, everyone. 🎆
Quick note before we roll into the new year: you’ve probably noticed I’ve been way less active these past few weeks already. That’s intentional, and it’s going to stay that way for the foreseeable future.
Everything’s good, better than ever actually, but with all the new things on my plate I won’t have the time to keep sharing updates here. I genuinely don’t know when I’ll be back.
I’m still actively trading, and my DMs are always open, but I won’t be posting on the timeline anymore.
Thank you for all the support, messages, and convos this year. Apprecia

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2025-11-21 08:20

$BTC market update! ⚠️
While 99% of CX is stressing out, we'll be looking at some of the fundamentals to see what is really going on.
I mean, I get it. Chart does not look pretty at this point:
- Broke weekly structure
- 4 weeks of consecutive bearish candles
- No signs of any reversal yet
But zooming out, we're currently in a high probability trading zone with that strong weekly demand POI.
Let's break it down:
Weekly Market Structure:
This is the most important part, so let’s start here.
You clearly lost weekly structure with a clean BOS to the downside.
That BOS was followed by strong displ

BTC0,97%

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2025-11-18 08:56

Price action is still doing exactly what the higher-timeframe structure has been suggesting: controlled weakness, with pockets of short-term relief. Here’s the full breakdown 👇
Monthly Data
The monthly stats continue to lean decisively bearish for the remainder of October.
- Less than 4% chance to take out the monthly high
- 77% of monthly lows form later than the current low, so statistically the bottom of the month is unlikely to be in.
- 66% chance of more displacement, meaning the month isn’t done moving yet.
Combine that with the technicals: EMA’s are still curling down and showing no si

BTC0,97%

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2025-11-14 09:22

⚠️ BTC Update: Watching For a Mid-Timeframe Bottom, But Not There Yet
Price is finally tapping into the higher-timeframe demand zone, and something interesting is happening under the hood: each new dump is coming in on less volume.
That normally hints at two things:
- Sellers are losing strength
- Liquidity is being absorbed rather than aggressively chased
But that alone doesn’t make a bottom. It just tells you that downside momentum is fading, not that buyers are stepping in with intent.
📊 Volume Behaviour
If you look back at the major legs lower: Every leg after that shows decreasing sell v

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2025-10-27 14:53

$BTC
📊 New Day, New Data
Momentum looks strong, but we're nearing important supply. Let's dive in:
Price:
Price bounced from weekend demand we created previous week and took out the daily supply. Currently still within the range and took out the high.
Given the current structure and data, I expect a move lower, at least to sweep the weekly low, and ideally to fill the CME gap around 110.7K.
If we find buyers stepping in there, I’ll be watching for fresh demand to form and confirmation for potential longs later in the week.
Time (Weekly):
⚠️ 70% chance to take out the low
❌ 99% chance to take

BTC0,97%

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2025-10-15 08:46

$BTC
📊 New Day, New Data
Price remains choppy with a compressed range, meaning lower-timeframe stats are less reliable right now.
Price:
BTC is currently trading within the weekly volume profile, so I’m expecting both the VAH and VAL to get swept this week. The structure looks balanced, likely some range continuation before a clearer move.
Main POIs:
Supply: Structure-based zone above 115–116K
Demand: Fresh 2H zone formed yesterday
Time (Weekly):
✅ 29% chance to take out the high
❌ 94% chance to take out the low if the high holds
🔴 Bias: bearish
Distance (Weekly):
✅ 24% chance to take out th

BTC0,97%

GET13,53%

LOOKS6,18%

MOVE2,93%

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2025-10-14 14:10

$BTC - time for some short term relief?
Could very much see some short term bounce here into supply with a lower timeframe break and with only 30% of days that moved further than the current move, it's likely for the current low to hold.

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2025-10-13 09:32

$BTC
📊 New Week, New Data
Friday’s sell-off was one of the strongest moves we’ve seen in months, wiping out weeks of progress in a single session. After such a capitulation event, I’m expecting some chop or range formation before a clearer direction forms.
Price:
BTC is currently sitting above higher-timeframe demand and filling the daily wick below. Given that the dump was largely news-driven, we could see some mean reversion and consolidation between the monthly high and low.
Time (Monthly):
✅ 24% chance to take out the high
❌ 92% chance to take out the low if the high holds
🔴 Bias: bearis

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2025-10-12 07:35

Good morning.
The market showed his intention. Now we wait for a range to form where big players will be accumulating.
Will take a couple of days, so not expecting much upcoming week.

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2025-10-11 08:07

Good morning.
I’ve seen a lot of crazy shit happing in crypto, but the absolute alt coin blood bath topped it all.
By far the worst altcoin crashes we’ve ever seen. I know some of you lost a lot, maybe even more than you could afford, and that’s heartbreaking to see.
If you’re feeling shaken or hopeless right now, please know you’re not alone. Many traders, even experienced ones, got caught in that storm. Take time to breathe, step back, and take care of yourself first.
Markets will recover eventually, they always do, but right now it’s okay to just pause and process. The money can come back.

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2025-10-09 13:32

$BTC
Quick update:
Not much to go over. We created a new daily high, which was to be expected since 99% of all daily highs had a bigger wick.
For now, the current NY session low is a low probability hold, so I expect we take that out soon. From there we'd need to see demand hold if we want to see further upside.
If not, we're going to see 119K at least.

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2025-10-07 09:42

$BTC
📊 New Day, New Data
We got the sweep of the high as anticipated yesterday. Now, I’m watching for signs of a short-term pullback before continuation.
Price:
BTC tagged the monthly high and showed early signs of exhaustion. I could see a pullback this week toward 119K (daily S/R) before another push higher, ideally into fresh liquidity or the next supply above.
Time (Daily):
⚠️ 31% chance to take out the high
❌ 97% chance to take out the low if the high holds
🟠 Bias: neutral
Time (Weekly):
⚠️ 40% chance to take out the low
❌ 97% chance to take out the high if the low holds
🟠 Bias: neutra

BTC0,97%

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2025-10-06 15:33

I think alts will go for a little run again soon.

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2025-10-06 10:07

$BTC
📊 New Week, New Data
$BTC printed a new all-time high yesterday. Let's break down what could be next 👇
Price:
Broke daily structure and filled all of the inefficiencies on the way up.
Higher timeframe we still in a range where we just took out the high, which means I'm not looking at longs now.
Time (Monthly):
⚠️ 57% chance to take out the low
❌ 99% chance to take out the high if the low holds
⚠️ 94% of monthly lows form later
🔴 Bias: slight bear
Time (Weekly):
❌ 89% chance to take out the high
❌ 100% chance to take out the low if the high holds
🟠 Bias: neutral
Distance (Monthly):
✅

BTC0,97%

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2025-10-06 10:04

Back from Malaga. Time to get back to the grind.
I'm ready 😤

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2025-09-29 11:07

Currently in Malaga for some family time.
Will be back next week 🔥

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2025-09-25 08:32

$BTC
📊 New Day, New Data
Yesterday’s bounce gave some short-term relief, but lacked real strength. Here’s what I’m watching next 👇
Price:
Price is currently sitting in the most refined 15-minute demand zone, which could trigger a bounce.
That said, both the weekly high and the weekly low remain weak pivot points. Based on current price action, I don’t expect the high to be taken out, which makes lower prices more likely in the near term.
Time (Daily):
⚠️ 37% chance to take out the high
❌ 98% chance to take out the low if the high holds
⚠️ 92% of daily highs form after 00:05
🟠 Bias: neutral

BTC0,97%

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2025-09-24 07:35

$BTC
📊 New Day, New Data
New weekly lows today, but bears look a little exhausted here. Let's dive in 👇
Price:
Creating a nice accumulation model while RSI over extended and printing a nice 4-hourly bullish divergence.
I'm expecting at least a little relief pump from here, ideally after we took out the refined 15-minute demand.
Time (monthly):
✅ 2% chance to take out the monthly low
❌ 77% chance to take out the high if the low holds
⚠️ 90% of monthly lows form later
🟢 Bias: bullish
Time (weekly):
✅ 14% chance to take out the weekly high
❌ 87% chance to put in a new low if the high holds
🔴

BTC0,97%

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2025-09-22 14:28

$BTC
📊 New Day, New Data
Not longing yet, but starting to eye potential setups. Here’s my view 👇
Price:
We sold off hard into daily support and are holding for now. The current weekly high looks weak, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it swept at some point.
For me, two bullish scenarios are worth watching:
We sweep the current low and break structure → fresh long setups.
We get supportive NY session stats today → confirmation to start looking for longs.
Time (Weekly):
❌ 72% chance to take out the high
❌ 99% chance to put in a new low if the high holds
🟠 Bias: neutral
Time (Daily):
⚠️ 38% c

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2025-09-17 18:02

Stats going into the FOMC meeting:
🟢 Monthly:
Time: 2,4% chance to take out the low
Distance: 28% chance to take out the low
🟢 Weekly:
Time: 10% chance to take out the low
Distance: 34% chance to take out the low
🔴 Daily:
Time: 0,8% chance to take out the high
Distance: 27% chance to take out the high
🔴 New York Session:
Time: 2,3% chance to take out the high
Distance: 33% chance to take out the high
It's going to be a VERY interesting couple of minutes/hours 😂
Little side note: stats tend to be less reliable during news events.

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