12.2
The main reason for yesterday's decline seems to be related to China's continued crackdown on cryptocurrencies and the rising interest rates in Japan. The former is manageable and can be gotten used to, but the latter is the biggest trouble right now, especially since Japan's real interest rates have already risen. Additionally, today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at weighing the pros and cons of raising interest rates and indicated that they would appropriately increase the policy rate when conditions are right.
The Japanese yen has long served as the world's

11.27
The beautiful country has extended the tariff exemptions on 178 Chinese items from 301 tariffs until November 10, 2026. The US stock market is closed on Thanksgiving Thursday, and on Black Friday, it will close early. The focus remains on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, followed by tariffs and liquidity.
BTC
This week's weekly review mentioned that there is rebound space on the daily chart. After a few days, there has indeed been a relatively good rebound. At the current position, there is still space above the daily level, but it is important to note that the position of

11.26
BTC
A couple of days ago, I mentioned that we should pay attention to the short-term stop-loss position for Bitcoin at this level, focusing on its right-side fluctuations. Currently, it seems to be fluctuating on the right side. Yesterday, I also pointed out that there is still room above at the daily level, and it remains the same now; the daily level still has room, but it depends on whether it can continue at this four-hour position. If it does not break below 86000 during the day, it will continue to fluctuate upwards around the upper range. Remember, this is a rebound, not a reversa

11.25
Last Friday, Williams announced his support for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December. On Monday, Waller and Daly also spoke in support of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December. Waller is not worth mentioning since he is originally a Trump appointee. Now that Daly also supports the rate cut, it’s better news for the market, especially since this decline started with Powell's announcement of no rate cut in December, compounded by the U.S. government shutdown. Now that the shutdown has ended, liquidity is gradually returning.
The key point is that the dovish sup

11.24
November 24
Grayscale is set to launch its first Dogecoin ETF on November 24.
November 25
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September retail sales month-on-month and the U.S. September PPI on Tuesday.
November 26
The United States will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 on Wednesday.
November 27
The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on the economic conditions this Thursday.
BTC
Thursday and Friday are Thanksgiving and Black Friday. The US stock market is closed on Thursday, and it will only be open for half a day on Friday. Th

11.22
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has risen to around 71% according to CME.
BTC
Bitcoin has now reached a very important support key area between 78500 and 86400. As long as it doesn't break, I personally believe there will be a small rebound. Therefore, if you are optimistic about this position moving forward, you can gradually enter a little bit. However, even if it moves upward from this position, it is only a rebound, not a reversal. From a technical perspective, this position has not completely stopped falling, but a rebound is needed to m

CME has raised the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in December to about 71%.
Now the rise and fall are all decided by the Fed.

11.121
After the non-farm payroll data was released, CME's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December rose from 28.7% to 41.6%. There was hope that Nvidia's earnings report would boost investor sentiment, after all, the AI bubble doesn't seem that easy to burst. It did provide a short-term lift, but after the US stock market opened, Nvidia started to decline, and the entire US stock market also fell. It not only erased the Nasdaq's 2.5% gain at the opening but also closed down 2.3%, with an amplitude of nearly 5% in one day, which is quite rare. The r

11.20
NVIDIA's third-quarter financial report exceeded expectations, with sales skyrocketing and GPUs sold out. Revenue and profit far surpassed market expectations.
BTC
The current position of Bitcoin is gradually approaching the short-term bottom. If you are looking at cycles, this position can be monitored in batches. Therefore, during the day, it will fluctuate around the range of 87800 to 94000. As long as the 87800 level is not broken, it will gradually move towards the bottom. From a daily perspective, there are also signs of gradually bottoming out, along with a double-bottom patte

11.19
BTC
After Bitcoin filled the gap the day before yesterday, it can be seen that there are still some people willing to buy at this position near the gap. Bitcoin has retraced about 30% from its highest to lowest point, without any significant rebound. If this position continues to move down, it will soon approach a short-term bottom, so it is important to pay attention to this level for an oversold rebound after the drop. However, from the current perspective, it still maintains a downward trend. Therefore, in summary, the day is still mainly characterized by fluctuations. Even if there i

11.14
BTC
Due to the decline in expectations for interest rate cuts in December, both U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies plummeted, with market sentiment reaching a level of 15. Liquidity has been drained, and even ancient whales are mentioning cashing out on exchanges. Yesterday, I suggested that we would continue to decline, which aligns with our expectations. From a technical perspective, the weekly chart has now reached the support of the ascending trend line on the weekly level. We need to pay close attention to whether this position can hold. If it cannot hold, we will need to head in a do

11.13
BTC
Yesterday, the idea given to everyone was that the larger scale has not adjusted properly and will still oscillate around the range. After an upward adjustment this week, it hasn't broken the key position and has returned to the lower edge of the range, getting closer to the 100,000 mark. Currently, the focus should be on whether the four-hour level can break the 100,000 mark. If it cannot break, it will oscillate widely between 100,000 and 106,300. The overall thought remains unchanged; this position requires time for a significant rise because the current market liquidity and n

11.12
BTC
Yesterday, the general idea for Bitcoin was that if it doesn't stabilize at the critical point, it will undergo a retracement. Indeed, yesterday saw a retracement. The reasoning is that the daily and weekly charts haven't been properly adjusted, so they can't drive a major upward movement. Therefore, at this level, if the 100,000 mark isn't broken, it will oscillate around 100,000 to 106,300. In the short term, the market will still be mainly volatile. This period is relatively dull, so everyone can reduce trading frequency and patiently wait for macro regulation. Support levels are

11.11
The best news received yesterday is that the shutdown is expected to come to an end soon. If everything goes as planned, the shutdown could end by Thursday Beijing time. Currently, market sentiment is gradually recovering. Today, U.S. stocks rose strongly. As the shutdown concludes, market focus will gradually shift back to Trump's tariffs and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In the past two weeks, due to the shutdown, there haven't been many data releases, and there is still over a month until the next rate cut, so the focus may remain on tariffs.
This time, the tariffs are no lon

11.10
This week, the focus is mainly on these 3 things:
1. CPI for October to be released on 11.13 Thursday
The US government is currently in the longest shutdown in history, but CPI is too important, so the Department of Labor is likely to still release it on time.
2. Retail sales and PPI for October to be released on 11.14 Friday
Retail reflects consumption, PPI reflects production costs. Data shows consumption is slowing down but not collapsing, and PPI remains moderate.
3. The biggest macro risk – government shutdown
The shutdown started on October 1st and has lasted 35 days. About 750,000

11.8
BTC
The strategy given to everyone yesterday was that if it doesn't break 100,000, it will trigger a small rebound. Yesterday, it nearly touched 100,000 before bouncing back, leading to a small rebound. Currently, the market is volatile, bouncing up and down. The current approach remains the same: do not break 100,000. If it holds, there’s a chance to test the 106,000 level. If it cannot stabilize at 106,000, it will once again test the bottom. Overall, it will fluctuate around 100,000 to 106,000. Over the weekend, the focus is likely to be on repair, as the current market is just small f

November 7
BTC
From both the weekly and daily perspectives, the large correction wave has not been fully completed. It’s also unlikely to support a significant short-term rally. Therefore, intraday, watch for a potential secondary bottom on the four-hour chart; as long as it doesn’t break below 100,000, there’s a chance for a small rebound. If the rebound fails to break above 106,300, the downward trend may resume. In the short term, expect mainly sideways movement with support levels at 100,000, 97,600, and 95,000, and resistance levels at 102,800, 104,500, and 106,300.
ETH
Ethereum is simila